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Trump: Iran conflict will end "immediately" after U.S. midterm elections, oil prices will fall, and Putin "wants to reach an agreement"
As Brent crude oil surged past $100 per barrel, Trump predicted that oil prices would "plunge" after the midterm elections, stating that he seeks no negotiations and that Iran cannot hold out for long. He also mentioned having had a productive conversation with Putin, suggesting the possibility of a bilateral meeting and even a trilateral summit involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. Citing senior Iranian officials, U.S. media reported that Iran is prepared to cope with more intense warfare and will strengthen its counterattacks if the United States continues its strikes.
Energy Index ETFs have surged 48% year-to-date! U.S. energy stocks remain "cheap" despite the rally: sustained high oil prices could drive a valuation recovery.
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, an ETF tracking U.S. energy stocks, has surged 483% year-to-date, significantly outperforming all other S&P 500 sectors. Despite this rally, the energy sector remains one of the lowest-valued segments within the S&P 500. While elevated oil prices have generated excess profits for energy companies, Wall Street previously viewed this earnings growth as transient. However, if high oil prices persist longer than expected, the valuation re-rating of energy stocks may only just be beginning.
EIA Significantly Raises Oil Price Forecasts: Brent Crude Average Price Expected to Reach $91 in 2026 Amid Greater-Than-Expected Supply Disruptions
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that the average spot price of Brent crude will be $91 per barrel in 2026 and $74 per barrel in 2027, representing upward revisions of $4 and $5, respectively, from previous forecasts. The average Brent price in the second half of 2026 is expected to be approximately $90 per barrel, $8 higher than previously projected. The EIA anticipates an average production disruption of about 5.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, with global inventories continuing to decline.
JPMorgan: Full restoration of the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult; oil prices still require a high risk premium
1. JPMorgan believes that the partial resumption of navigation through the Strait has alleviated short-term supply pressures, but has also reduced the incentive for the United States to reach a compromise with Iran promptly; 2. With Iranian oil exports nearing zero, a sharp depreciation of the rial, and inflation approaching 90%, economic pressures are continuously undermining its negotiating position; 3. European natural gas and refining margins, as well as U.S. diesel prices, have risen significantly, indicating that the energy shock is spreading from crude oil to transportation, industrial sectors, and end-user prices.
Express News | Trump: The U.S.-Iran war will end immediately after the midterm elections.
Trump stated that he would not alter his strategy toward Iran for the sake of the midterm elections and is not currently seeking negotiations with Tehran, describing the situation as having "gone too far." However, he acknowledged that talks could still take place in the future. He noted that the U.S. is now seeking to resolve issues with Iran beyond just the nuclear question, adding that other topics that were "impossible to put on the table" three months ago will now be included in negotiations. He further asserted that "this war will end immediately after our elections." Regarding energy prices, Trump predicted that oil prices would drop significantly after the midterm elections, driving gasoline prices below $2 per gallon, though achieving this target might take longer. Addressing the resurgence of oil prices above $100 per barrel, he linked it to efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and described Iran's current economic and domestic situation as dire.
UBS Maintains Buy on SLB, Raises Price Target to $72
UBS analyst Josh Silverstein maintains SLB (NYSE:SLB) with a Buy and raises the price target from $66 to $72.