How does Wall Street view the August non-farm payrolls? Strong employment figures have not ended the suspense over a September rate hike; next week's CPI holds "decisive significance."
The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August was surprisingly strong, prompting the market to reassess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. However, Wall Street does not believe this resolves the policy uncertainty. According to analysts at multiple institutions, while the robust employment data has indeed strengthened the hand of the hawkish camp within the Fed, it is insufficient on its own to determine the outcome of the September monetary policy meeting. The CPI data scheduled for release next week remains the key factor likely to "set the direction." On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000. Additionally, job gains for the previous two months were revised upward by a combined 55,000, with July's figure being adjusted from a decrease of 23,000.
Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly surge, lifting the probability of a September rate hike to approximately 60%, triggering simultaneous repricing in U.S. equities and bonds.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August significantly exceeded expectations, further widening market分歧 over the Federal Reserve's policy direction in September.
Strong non-farm payrolls data fails to halt rally: Emerging market currencies extend gains for 10 consecutive weeks, marking the longest winning streak since 2007
The appreciation of the yen has weakened the U.S. dollar, while the decline in U.S. Treasury yields has triggered capital reallocation, jointly driving up emerging market assets. Although strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday briefly sparked market volatility, currencies such as the South African rand and the Mexican peso quickly recovered their losses. Analysts note that market focus has shifted to next week’s U.S. CPI data: if core inflation falls as expected, a pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes is virtually certain, potentially sustaining the bull run in emerging markets.
Why Are Gold and Silver Down Today, 9/4/26?
Express News | Trump: Employment data far exceeds expectations; the Federal Reserve "should cut interest rates"
U.S. President Trump posted: The newly released employment data is excellent, surpassing all expectations (except mine!). The increase was two to three times higher than expected, and you haven’t seen the full picture yet! U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August. Cut interest rates, because America’s creditworthiness is much stronger than it was not long ago! A strong nation means lower interest rates due to its superior credit profile... it’s that simple! We should have the lowest interest rates in the world, just like in the “good old days.” If these countries were not allowed by the United States to enjoy huge trade surpluses—a situation we can halt immediately—they should no longer be regarded as financial “elite” nations! Cut interest rates, or I will cease trade with countries that maintain trade surpluses with the United States. The U.S. Supreme Court has clearly affirmed in that absurd and costly tariff ruling that the “President” has the absolute authority to do so. This is better than tariffs! The Federal Reserve Board, under the leadership of this outstanding new chair, must act wisely, think differently, and be patriotic. High interest rates place the United States at a severely unfair disadvantage, and I will never allow this to happen!
Non-farm payrolls surge! U.S. job growth in August added 162,000 positions, far exceeding expectations, sharply raising the probability of a September rate hike, with next week's CPI data set to be pivotal.
According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, significantly exceeding the Bloomberg survey median expectation of 55,000 and surpassing estimates from all analysts surveyed. Additionally, data for the previous two months were revised upward, with the July figure (-23,000) being adjusted to a positive value.
快讯 | 美国8月非农增加16.2万人,远高于预期;失业率为4.1%符合预期
US Aug. Non-Farm Payrolls +162000 Vs +56000 Forecast, Prior +21000; US Aug. Unemployment Rate 4.1% Vs 4.1% Forecast, Prior 4.1%
The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August will be released at 20:30 tonight. Bank of America states that the non-farm report is merely a precursor, with the CPI holding the trigger for policy decisions; employment data would need to show a "significant w
The key market driver in tonight’s non-farm payrolls report is whether it can alter expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. If job growth turns negative for a second consecutive month, or if the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, market pricing may loosen significantly; otherwise, inflation will continue to dominate policy assessments.
Non-farm payrolls to be released tonight! New jobs may total only 56,000; how will the S&P 500 react?
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for August is set to be released, with the market forecasting a modest increase of only 56,000 jobs. While labor market conditions remain weak, they have not deteriorated significantly; the Federal Reserve’s policy focus remains on inflation, meaning that soft nonfarm payrolls data does not necessarily imply an interest rate cut. JPMorgan anticipates that different outcomes could lead to markedly divergent trajectories for the S&P 500.
Update: US Equity Indexes Rise, Treasury Yields Slump Amid Plunging Bets of September Fed Policy Tightening
(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes rose as government bond yields slumped amid a fall in market
U.S. August non-farm payrolls data to be released tomorrow night! Bank of America: Merely an “appetizer”; maintains expectation of a Fed rate hike in September
① Bank of America believes that the upcoming non-farm payrolls report is unlikely to be a decisive factor in determining whether interest rates will be raised in September; ② The bank notes that while a significantly weak non-farm payrolls report could reduce the likelihood of a rate hike, the CPI remains the key indicator for the Federal Reserve's decision on raising rates; ③ The bank maintains its expectation of a rate hike in September.
The yen surged suddenly amid renewed rumors of Japanese intervention, prompting a rebound in gold and silver prices.
The yen strengthened sharply on Wednesday, while the U.S. Dollar Index recorded its largest intraday decline since August 21, with spot gold approaching $4,400. Rumors circulated that Japanese authorities had intervened again, but traders viewed the magnitude of the gain as insufficient to confirm intervention.
Why Are Gold and Silver Up Today, 9/2/26?
Gold selling pressure is nearing exhaustion! Deutsche Bank: Even a hawkish Federal Reserve struggles to curb the strength of precious metals, with the next rally potentially driven by proactive capital inflows.
The gold market is standing at a critical turning point.
Song Xuetao: Rate hikes cannot save long-end interest rates
The core issue remains on the "numerator side," namely whether AI can achieve revenue generation and monetization as soon as possible.
Why Are Gold and Silver Down Today, 9/1/26?
Sell-off Resurfaces! 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Hits 19-Month High, Key Support Level Breached
① Driven by rising crude oil prices, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes have intensified significantly, with the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note surpassing the 4.75% threshold overnight for the first time since January 2025; ② Selling pressure has also rapidly spread to other maturities of U.S. Treasuries: the yield on the 5-year Treasury note climbed to a new high since early last year, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond broke through its previous week’s peak.
Following Waller's hawkish remarks, market focus shifts to rate hikes; Morgan Stanley sees balance sheet reduction as more likely
Following the Jackson Hole meeting, market attention has focused on interest rate hike expectations. However, Morgan Stanley economist Carpenter highlights that Governor Waller’s long-standing advocacy for shrinking the $7 trillion balance sheet should not be overlooked. The Federal Reserve is expected to launch a balance sheet reduction program exceeding $1.5 trillion next year, partially substituting for interest rate hikes.
U.S. forces launched a night raid on the Strait of Hormuz, destroying two Iranian launchers; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed "inevitable retaliation"!
U.S. forces conducted a night raid on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island, alleging they were preparing to lay mines. This marks the first time since late July that Washington has publicly acknowledged military action against Iran. Tehran has vowed retaliation and claimed to have fired missiles at U.S. military bases.
After Waller’s speech at Jackson Hole, is the Fed left with no choice but to hike rates in September?
Following Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s hawkish debut at the Jackson Hole Annual Symposium, markets rapidly priced in expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. On Friday, Waller stated unequivocally that the 2% inflation target remains "unwavering" and that current financial conditions are "hardly restrictive." He noted that recent PCE and CPI data, which came in better than expected, were insufficient to demonstrate a "meaningful improvement" in underlying inflation trends. He set a clear threshold for action: unless there is confidence that inflation is declining at a "clear and sufficiently fast" pace, the Fed "still has work to do." Markets quickly incorporated these hawkish signals. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note jumped 12 basis points to 4.35%, marking its highest level since June.