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Is the Middle East quagmire reemerging? Key White House aides acknowledge: War with Iran could last until the end of Trump's term
On Wednesday, Trump continued to assert that the war would "end immediately" after the midterm elections. However, according to U.S. officials, key aides such as Vance and Rubio have already discussed in the Situation Room that Tehran might hold out until 2029.
Energy Index ETFs have surged 48% year-to-date! U.S. energy stocks remain "cheap" despite the rally: sustained high oil prices could drive a valuation recovery.
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, an ETF tracking U.S. energy stocks, has surged 483% year-to-date, significantly outperforming all other S&P 500 sectors. Despite this rally, the energy sector remains one of the lowest-valued segments within the S&P 500. While elevated oil prices have generated excess profits for energy companies, Wall Street previously viewed this earnings growth as transient. However, if high oil prices persist longer than expected, the valuation re-rating of energy stocks may only just be beginning.
If You Invested $100 In Valero Energy Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) has outperformed the market over the past 20 years by 1.39% on an annualized basis producing an average annual return of 10.55%. Currently, Valero Energy has a market
EIA Significantly Raises Oil Price Forecasts: Brent Crude Average Price Expected to Reach $91 in 2026 Amid Greater-Than-Expected Supply Disruptions
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that the average spot price of Brent crude will be $91 per barrel in 2026 and $74 per barrel in 2027, representing upward revisions of $4 and $5, respectively, from previous forecasts. The average Brent price in the second half of 2026 is expected to be approximately $90 per barrel, $8 higher than previously projected. The EIA anticipates an average production disruption of about 5.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, with global inventories continuing to decline.
XOP Builds an Inverse Head-and-shoulders Pattern as Oil Tops $100/bbl
Central banks are no longer focused solely on oil prices; cracking spreads are sounding the alarm on inflation.
Crack spreads, defined as the price differential between refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel and crude oil, are becoming a key indicator for central banks in assessing inflationary pressures. Conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine have disrupted global refining capacity, tightening the supply of refined products and driving crack spreads sharply higher. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that he is currently more concerned about the widening of crack spreads than about crude oil prices, while the European Central Bank has also incorporated them into its assessment of energy prices and inflation risks.