Trump: No rush to end Iran conflict; warns of 'heavy bombing' if Oman hinders negotiations, as Iran signals shift to all-out offensive
The 60-day negotiation window under the US-Iran ceasefire agreement expired on August 17. Trump stated that he would not extend the memorandum of understanding, asserting there is "no timetable" for resolving the Iran issue and demanding that Iran "surrender unconditionally," while acknowledging that Iran "will not reach the kind of agreement he deems necessary." Iran, in turn, warned that it would impose a naval blockade on the United States and carry out precise military strikes if diplomatic efforts failed. US Special Envoy Jared Kushner described communications with Iran as "positive and productive," but acknowledged that the two sides had "not yet reached a consensus."
Crude Oil Trading Alert: The collapse of prospects for renewing the U.S.-Iran agreement has intensified supply concerns, with oil prices oscillating within a range as the market awaits a directional breakout.
WTI crude oil held near $84 per barrel during early Asian trading on Tuesday, entering a phase of high-level consolidation following a notable rebound in the previous session. Oil prices are currently being pulled by two opposing forces: on one hand, the failure to extend arrangements between the United States and Iran has reignited transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, injecting a new geopolitical risk premium into crude prices; on the other hand, an unusual and substantial increase in recent U.S. crude inventories, coupled with ongoing uncertainty regarding global demand prospects, is exerting fundamental pressure on oil prices after their rapid rise. On Monday, WTI briefly strengthened to near $84.50 per barrel, indicating that the market has begun to reprice the risk of supply disruptions.
Commodities Overview: Crude Oil and Gold Rise, Copper Prices Remain Largely Flat
Crude oil prices rose on Monday as various indicators suggested that the Middle East conflict would be difficult to de-escalate in the short term. Gold prices climbed as cooling expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes weighed on the U.S. dollar. Copper prices remained largely flat amid severe market supply tightness. Crude Oil: Oil prices surged as tensions in the Middle East intensified again. Prices rose due to signs that the Middle East conflict remains unlikely to subside in the near term, dampening market optimism that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would soon return to pre-conflict levels. Brent crude approached $91 per barrel, marking a 6% cumulative gain for the week. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that the United States is adopting a long-term strategy regarding Iran, hinting at Washington's...
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Express News | Trump: The U.S. is not seeking to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran
Express News | International oil prices have continued to rise. As of now, WTI crude oil futures are up 2.40% at $83.424 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures have gained 2.32% to trade at $90.575 per barrel.
Express News | U.S. Secretary of Energy Wright: Middle East oil supplies have not yet fully recovered.
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Trump issues threat to Oman: Direct airstrikes will be launched if it dares to obstruct the U.S.-Iran peace agreement!
U.S. President Trump has begun threatening to intervene in Oman, which is mediating between the United States and Iran. Earlier, the Iranian military and Ministry of Foreign Affairs took a hardline stance, directly accusing the U.S. of reneging on its commitments and warning that it would employ all available means to countermeasure.
Express News | Reuters: Iranian senior official states that a deadline of several weeks has been set for the United States to fully implement the memorandum of understanding.
Trump threatens to "bomb Oman," yet oil prices suddenly plunge? Three divergences emerge in today's market
On Monday (August 17), Middle East developments continued to dominate market sentiment. News that the U.S.-Iran 60-day extension agreement had been approved caused crude oil prices to plunge in the short term, with Brent and WTI benchmarks falling sharply; however, Trump's threats against Oman kept concerns over supplies through the Strait of Hormuz elevated. Gold fluctuated at high levels amid safe-haven demand and a weaker U.S. dollar, while Japanese government bond yields hit a thirty-year high as markets bet on a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. Overall risk sentiment swung rapidly between escalation and de-escalation. Today, the market is most focused on every signal emerging from the Middle East situation. On one side are Trump's tough remarks specifically naming Oman, and on the other are rumors of the approval of the U.S.-Iran extension agreement, causing oil prices to swing dramatically within minutes.
Express News | Sources stated that the agreement to extend the 60-day deadline between Iran and the United States has been approved.
Express News | Reports indicate that the agreement to extend the 60-day negotiation deadline between the United States and Iran has been approved.
Rising US-Iran tensions elevate risk, causing sharp volatility in oil prices
As Washington threatened to impose an indefinite naval blockade on Iran, fears of disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies intensified once again, triggering a rapid surge in safe-haven buying and a rebound in Brent crude prices just before the close last Friday. However, bulls faced pressure as the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its demand forecasts, compounded by the largest increase in U.S. crude oil inventories in three and a half years. With bullish and bearish forces locked in a tug-of-war, oil prices are no longer driven by a single factor. Following the weekend’s news developments, the interplay between geopolitical risks and fundamentals persisted through Monday afternoon’s trading session, leaving oil prices highly sensitive to various news flows. Geopolitical risk has once again become
What is the actual volume of oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz? Data from the U.S. Department of Energy diverges from market tracking figures by a factor of two.
The U.S. Secretary of Energy stated that daily oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz reach 9 million barrels, whereas data from third-party vessel tracking firms such as Kpler indicate only about 4 million barrels, representing a nearly twofold discrepancy. The core of the controversy lies in the fact that numerous oil tankers disable their transponders to evade attacks, creating "shadow transits" and resulting in data blind spots. If tracking data were more accurate, the shortage risks facing the oil market would far exceed expectations.
Oil Prices Retain Risk Premium as Iran, Oman Progress Talks on Strait of Hormuz -- Market Talk
Amid repeated U.S. defaults, Iran’s hardliners have abandoned illusions about Washington and are reportedly secretly expanding their military capabilities in preparation for a new round of confrontation.
A spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that subsequent negotiations never commenced due to U.S. violations of the memorandum of understanding, rendering the 60-day negotiation deadline stipulated in the memorandum "completely meaningless." According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran secretly expanded its military forces, upgraded weapons systems, and restructured its top command chain during the ceasefire period. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in coordination with Middle Eastern militias, has deepened blockades, posing new threats to energy security in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas.
The U.S. dollar fell against the Canadian dollar for the third consecutive day; caution is advised regarding potential accelerated downside in the short term.
The USD/CAD pair extended its decline during the Asian session on Monday, trading near 1.3850 and marking its third consecutive day of weakness. The Canadian dollar has found relatively strong support recently, driven by a combination of pressure on the U.S. dollar and rising international oil prices. Given that Canada’s economy and export structure are closely tied to energy markets, higher crude oil prices typically improve market expectations for Canada’s trade and foreign exchange earnings, thereby bolstering the loonie’s relative performance. Recent U.S. consumption data served as a key catalyst for the greenback’s recent weakness. July retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month, significantly below the 0.2% growth recorded in June and missing market expectations.
Iran’s Secret War Plan Upgrade Exposed! Hardliners Have Adopted a New Strategy
Details of cross-regional communications intercepted by Arab intelligence agencies indicate that Iran has long abandoned any illusions about negotiations and is accelerating a strategic shift, with a single objective: to raise the war costs for the United States and its Middle Eastern allies to an unsustainable level.