Divergence Among Fed Officials Emerges: Barkin Supports Holding Steady, Hammack Insists on Rate Hike
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin supports holding interest rates steady, arguing that inflation stems primarily from temporary shocks, but warns that AI investment and supply chain dynamics could exert persistent price pressures. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, meanwhile, reaffirmed her stance in favor of rate hikes, cautioning against financial stability risks such as U.S. Treasury leverage and an AI bubble. With unemployment remaining low and economic data presenting a mixed picture, the Federal Reserve’s policy path for its September meeting is fraught with uncertainty.
Citi takes a bold bullish stance: Silver prices are expected to reach $90 per ounce in the next 6–12 months.
Citi reaffirmed its strong bullish stance on silver on Wednesday, forecasting that prices could rise to $90 per ounce over the next 6 to 12 months. This outlook is driven by investment demand stepping in to offset weakening industrial usage, contingent upon a de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis and a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve.
Why Are Gold and Silver Up Today, 8/12/26?
U.S. core inflation in July matched its lowest level in over five years, temporarily easing the Federal Reserve's rate-hike alarm. However, are oil price volatility and wage declines brewing the next storm?
Notably, wage data released during the same period indicates that workers' real purchasing power continues to decline. Coupled with recurring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving up energy prices, the outlook for U.S. inflation remains highly uncertain.
Fully in line with expectations! The year-on-year increase in the U.S. CPI for July narrowed to 3.4%, while core CPI slowed to 2.5% year-on-year.
Traders maintain their bet on a 45% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
Fully in line with expectations! Full text of the U.S. July CPI report: Year-on-year growth narrows to 3.4%, with falling energy prices as the main drag
In July, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI eased to 2.5% on an annual basis. The decline in energy prices was the primary drag, whereas housing costs still accounted for approximately two-thirds of the overall monthly increase. Below is the full text of the CPI report.
快讯 | 美国7月CPI同比增长3.4% 符合市场预期
US Jul. CPI YoY +3.4% Vs +3.4% Forecast, Prior +3.5%
Markets are extremely tense ahead of the CPI release! PIMCO offers reassurance: interest rates are bound to plunge!
Ahead of the July CPI data release, the swap market is pricing in over a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. However, executives at PIMCO, which manages trillions in assets, argue that market concerns about inflation and rate hikes are entirely unwarranted.
The “anchor of global asset pricing” reaches a critical juncture! A dovish surprise in the U.S. CPI could trigger short covering in U.S. Treasuries, thereby fueling the rally in risk assets.
Wall Street remains divided on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month, but Wednesday’s inflation report will determine the Fed’s next move. Traders assign roughly a 50% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike, while stronger-than-expected economic data could increase the likelihood of a rate increase.
Silver broke above $65 ahead of U.S. inflation data, with industrial demand and safe-haven factors jointly supporting higher prices.
Spot silver (XAG/USD) showed strong performance during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, rising by approximately 1% and trading around $65.20. Investors are awaiting the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July to seek new clues regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction. The market expects the year-over-year increase in the U.S. headline CPI for July to ease to 3.4%, down from 3.5% in June; the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise by 2.5% year-over-year, slightly below the previous reading of 2.6%. On a month-over-month basis, headline inflation is expected to have increased by approximately 0.1%, while core inflation is forecast to have risen by about 0
The U.S. July CPI data is about to be released, putting silver to a critical test of bullish and bearish forces.
During the Asian trading session on Wednesday (August 12), international silver (XAG/USD) strengthened, rising by 1.1% to trade around $65.40. Markets are holding their breath ahead of the U.S. July CPI inflation data, scheduled for release at 20:30 Beijing time. This report will directly influence Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations and has become the key variable determining silver’s near-term direction. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, which may somewhat constrain silver’s upside potential. Combined with mixed technical signals, silver is currently at a critical inflection point. Inflation data is driving the pricing dynamics of precious metals, and market participants widely anticipate...
A 50-50 bet on a rate hike: Tonight at 20:30, CPI data may determine whether the Fed 'pulls the trigger' in September or continues to hold off
Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 50% probability of a rate hike in September. This means tonight’s CPI data could directly tip the balance. If the data aligns with expectations, the Federal Reserve may remain on hold; if it exceeds expectations, it could open the door to a series of consecutive rate hikes.
U.S. CPI for July arrives tomorrow! JPMorgan outlines five scenarios, with the S&P 500 potentially swinging by as much as 2%.
JPMorgan's trading desk recently warned that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July, scheduled for release on Wednesday, could cause the S&P 500 index to swing by as much as 2%.
Pakistan claims that the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching an agreement.
First loudly demanding compensation, then quietly making a breakthrough? Pakistan has released a major update: the U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement of some kind.
Get Ready for a Major Gold and Silver Catalyst Tomorrow
CME Announces: Following Gold, Silver Futures to Join '24/7 Trading'
CME Group will expand its 100-ounce silver futures contract to 24/7 trading on September 11, pending regulatory approval. Following the weekend trading of over 53,000 contracts in the 1-ounce gold futures contract, silver is now adopting a round-the-clock trading schedule. The silver contract averaged 17,800 contracts per day in the first half of the year, reflecting continued growth in trading activity. Extended trading hours will enable investors to respond more promptly to macroeconomic and geopolitical events and broaden their risk management window.
Express News | CME Group: 24-hour silver trading to launch on September 11
CME Group announced that 24-hour silver trading will launch on September 11, expanding the around-the-clock trading offering to include the 100-ounce silver futures contract.
Express News | Pakistan signals on U.S.-Iran talks: 'Close to reaching some kind of arrangement'
According to Reuters, Pakistani officials stated that signals from the United States and Iran indicate the two sides are 'close to reaching some kind of arrangement,' with developments moving in a peaceful direction. Meanwhile, according to Iran's Mehr News Agency, Pakistan's Interior Minister has arrived in Tehran for talks.
‘The New Fed Wire’ Issues Strong Warning: September Rate Hike Hinges on Inflation Data!
① The so-called 'New Fed Wire' stated that if the U.S. July CPI data released on Wednesday comes in mild, it would simultaneously ease the pressure on both Waller personally and the FOMC to raise interest rates—pressure stemming from their ongoing reassessment of whether they had underestimated the resilience of the U.S. economy. ② Conversely, if the data remains elevated, it could force him to demonstrate through concrete action the point he struggled last month to articulate clearly.
Is the gold and silver bull market about to resume? Experts say the pullback is a 'normal fluctuation,' and the long-term risk-reward profile has improved!
① Maria Smirnov, Chief Investment Officer at Sprott Inc., stated that the recent decline in gold prices represents a normal correction within a bull market rather than a reversal of the trend, and that the outlook for silver remains highly attractive; ② She noted that factors such as rising sovereign debt, fiscal deficits, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical fragmentation continue to underpin gold’s strategic role, and that fundamentals for precious metals mining equities remain robust.