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Futu Morning Brief | US-Iran stalemate adds inflation uncertainty, pressure on long-term bonds continues to mount; Morgan Stanley says AWS revenue could reach $1 trillion in the next decade; US urges South Korea to prioritize investment in memory chips; X
Overseas holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell by $72.1 billion in June, with simultaneous declines in Japan and China; Anthropic's annualized revenue surpassed $65 billion, accelerating commercialization ahead of its IPO.
Castle Securities: Fed’s Decision to Hold Rates Steady Sparks Concerns; Long-Term U.S. Treasury Yields Approaching 20-Year Highs Amplify Market Risks
Castle Securities believes that the Federal Reserve's reluctance to further tighten monetary policy, despite inflation remaining persistently above target, is keeping long-term U.S. Treasury yields at multi-year highs and may pose sustained risks to broader financial markets.
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Hits Highest Level Since 2007: Oil Prices, Fiscal Deficit, and AI-Driven Bond Issuance Push Long-End Rates Higher
On Monday, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds briefly rose above 5.31%. Corporations have issued substantial debt to support the AI boom, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the long-duration bond market. In August, U.S. investment-grade bond issuance reached $145.2 billion, surpassing the monthly record of $136 billion set in August 2020. Meanwhile, the U.S. government's annual fiscal deficit of nearly $2 trillion continues to drive up the supply of Treasury securities.
Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities declined in June, with Japan recording the largest reduction.
As the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasury securities, Japan reduced its holdings by approximately $26.4 billion in June, bringing its position down to $1.12 trillion, marking the largest decline among all nations. China followed closely, with its holdings decreasing by $25.9 billion to $633.4 billion. The United Kingdom held $939.9 billion, a month-on-month decrease of $8.7 billion. Since hitting a historic high in February this year, foreign holdings have declined in three of the past four months.
Top 20 by Trading Volume | Memory chips buck the trend with strong gains: SanDisk surges nearly 9%, Micron rises over 4%; Tesla to launch Cybercab in August; Apple to adjust iPhone 17 series prices globally
Micron Technology led U.S. equity trading volume on Monday, closing up 4.13% with a turnover of $33.643 billion. Elon Musk recently highlighted on social media that memory storage will become a core bottleneck in the era of autonomous AI, explicitly expressing optimism about the long-term growth potential of three memory giants: Micron Technology, SanDisk, and SK Hynix. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, global monthly token consumption for autonomous AI will reach 120 quadrillion, 24 times the level at the beginning of 2026, indicating a near-infinite growth trend in memory demand.
US Stock Market Close | Escalating US-Iran tensions add uncertainty; three major indices post second consecutive daily decline. Optical communication stocks surge against the trend: AXTI jumps 17%, Marvell Technology rises over 5%. Crude oil and gold both
The S&P 500 fell 0.50%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.31%, marking the second consecutive day of losses for the three major indices. Memory and optical communication chips surged against the trend, with SanDisk rising 8.88%, while tech giants such as Microsoft and Meta faced sell-offs. Rising oil prices pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher across the board, with the 30-year yield climbing 5 basis points to 5.31%, its highest level since 2007.