Where will the Shanghai Composite Index head after falling below 4,000 points? XY Strategy: Closely monitor Taiwan Semiconductor’s July earnings report and North American cloud providers’ capital expenditures.

With both key factors that previously influenced market adjustments—overseas liquidity and sentiment headwinds, as well as the global AI industry narrative—recently showing critical shifts and positive validation signals, there is no need for excessive concern about the market outlook. The momentum for a new round of gains is gradually building amid ongoing volatility.

Zhitong FinanceJul 12 17:35

On-site institutional research: Taiwan Semiconductor has won the current CPO race, while Samsung is betting on the next one.

Taiwan Semiconductor has taken the lead in commercializing co-packaged optics (CPO) switch products for Broadcom and NVIDIA. Samsung, on the other hand, is pursuing an alternative approach by developing a 2.xD integration scheme that combines HBM, logic chips, and silicon photonics within a single package, targeting the optical I/O segment of AI computing packaging. Samsung's 'trinity' vertical integration represents a potential competitive advantage, but yield challenges and the commercialization timeline remain the greatest uncertainties. Ultimately, securing orders will be the sole benchmark for determining success.

wallstreetcnJul 12 15:17

Key events next week: China GDP data, U.S. CPI release, World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC), Changxin Technology IPO subscription, and Taiwan Semiconductor earnings report

In June, the U.S. will see a flurry of key data releases, including CPI, PPI, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, alongside Fed Chair Waller’s first congressional testimony. China will simultaneously release its Q2 GDP, retail sales, and industrial value-added figures. The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) will take place, where Huawei may unveil its Atlas 950 hardware for the first time, and reports suggest Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro could be launched. On the earnings front, the five largest Wall Street banks will report results on the same day, while ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor will offer insights into AI-related demand. Domestically, ChangXin Technology’s IPO subscription is drawing significant attention. Additionally, the Bank of Korea is expected to resume rate hikes after a five-year pause, and the Strait of Hormuz has closed again, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.

wallstreetcnJul 12 10:05

Weekend Reading | When AI Gains a Body: Will Physical AI Become the Next Technological Frontier?

Opportunities may not belong solely to humanoid robots, but rather span the entire industrial chain—from computing power and simulation to real-world application.

PANewsJul 12 09:55

Earnings Season, Worshe and U.S. Inflation – Where Are the Fed and Markets Headed? Hints Emerge Next Week!

Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is set to appear at his first congressional hearing, coinciding with the密集 release of U.S. June inflation data—a confluence that will put market bets on a July rate hike to a critical test. On Tuesday next week, Warsh’s hearing will be held before the House Financial Services Committee, with the U.S. June CPI data scheduled for release earlier that same day. On Wednesday, shortly after the U.S. PPI data is published, Warsh will testify again, this time before the Senate. According to a Bloomberg Economics survey, markets currently price in only a 24% implied probability of a July rate hike; for this figure to rise significantly, both 'a hotter-than-expected CPI print' and 'clearly hawkish remarks from Warsh' would be required.

wallstreetcnJul 12 09:36

Global Outlook for Next Week: Inflation, Earnings, and Middle East Risks Converge as S&P 500 Rebounds Toward New Highs

① The U.S. June CPI data is set to be released, with Walsh testifying before Congress on the same day; ② The U.S. earnings season officially kicks off, featuring JPMorgan and Taiwan Semiconductor; ③ The outlook for the Strait of Hormuz standoff remains uncertain; ④ The Bank of Korea faces a decision on whether to raise interest rates.

cls.cnJul 12 06:47