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Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week? The U.S. August CPI data will be released at 20:30 tonight, marking a pivotal moment for the markets.

① At 20:30 Beijing Time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the August CPI data, which will be the final "inflation puzzle piece" available to the Federal Reserve before its interest rate decision next week. ② As widely discussed by market participants recently, this week's inflation report is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's actions at next week's monetary policy meeting.

cls.cn37minutes ago

China Merchants Macro | With the September FOMC meeting approaching, will TACO arrive?

Core View: Market consensus on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September currently hinges on the U.S. CPI data for August, scheduled for release on September 11. However, the threshold for a September rate hike does not depend solely on the limited information available in September itself. The decision to initiate the first rate hike may involve higher-dimensional considerations, including the midterm elections, changes to inflation metrics, and the Fed’s reaction function. An interesting phenomenon observed at the end of July during the FOMC meeting was Trump’s TACO one week prior to the session; it is plausible that the diminishing impact of oil prices on inflation served as one rationale for the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. With escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, if Trump again employs TACO tactics in the coming week to suppress oil prices, compounded by constraints from the midterm elections, the Federal Reserve may

CMS Macro13:49

U.S. stocks near record highs, yet capital remains on the sidelines? Nomura highlights the "negative risk triangle"

U.S. equities are hovering near historical highs, yet market sentiment has plunged to freezing levels. Nomura strategist McElligott warns of a "negative risk triangle"—a confluence of geopolitical tensions, rising interest rates, and inflation uncertainty—while institutional net leverage sits at only the 6th percentile over the past year. Meanwhile, the accelerated unwinding of yen carry trades is quietly draining liquidity from U.S. stocks. However, contrarian signals are emerging: an enigmatic buyer has spent $300 million on AI technology options, and South Korean semiconductor stocks have recorded their second-highest ever net foreign inflows, intensifying the tug-of-war between deleveraging and counter-trend bottom-fishing.

wallstreetcnSep 10 18:44

New Bond King Gundlach Warns: Long-End Yields Will Surge if the Fed Holds Steady

Gundlach argues that U.S. inflation is far from subsiding, with the CPI trajectory bearing a "striking resemblance" to the Great Inflation of the 1970s, suggesting that true inflation could be as high as 7%. Of particular concern is the severe divergence in credit markets, where spreads on AI-related corporate bonds have widened dramatically due to an "avalanche" of supply. Meanwhile, facing a Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P at 42 times and a 38% weighting for technology stocks, Gundlach bluntly states that the U.S. equity market is in an "extremely dangerous" state.

wallstreetcn12:30

U.S. Treasury yields approach the 5% "psychological barrier"! The global bond market sell-off intensifies as financial markets await tonight's 8:30 PM CPI "final verdict"

A global bond sell-off has pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes toward the critical 5% level.

Zhitong Finance11:58

U.S. Treasury yields at 5%, oil prices at $120, VIX index at 25? The market’s nightmare scenario is becoming a reality.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has surged past 4.8%, steadily approaching the critical 5% threshold. Once it stabilizes above this level, it will formally break out of its multi-year trading range, leaving little resistance overhead. Surging oil prices and broad-based increases in agricultural commodities continue to fuel inflation expectations, while the VIX has spiked abruptly, prompting institutions to rush for tail-risk hedges. Although the AI narrative supports the resilience of tech stocks, the 35% short interest accumulated in the Nasdaq could trigger a short squeeze at any moment.

wallstreetcn11:37

UBS Group CEO warns against market complacency: Geopolitical and inflationary risks are compounding, suggesting interest rates may remain "higher for longer."

UBS Group CEO Sergio Ermotti has warned that complacency is spreading across global financial markets while risks accumulate beneath the surface. Amid a triple threat of geopolitical conflicts, supply chain pressures, and persistent inflation, the European Central Bank may lead the rate-hiking cycle, with the Federal Reserve following suit, potentially making high interest rates the "new normal." Wealthy investors have quietly shifted toward diversified allocations but have not exited U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

wallstreetcn10:20

Futu Morning Brief | Oil prices surpass $100 and bond yields surge as markets focus on tonight's U.S. CPI data; Trump hints that elections may constrain full-scale escalation of conflicts; Jensen Huang remains bullish on cybersecurity, denies AI investmen

The scale of U.S. Treasury repurchases fell short of expectations, with Bessent downplaying market concerns; the Bank for International Settlements warned that AI investment is increasingly reliant on debt, leading to accumulating financial stability risks.

Futu News08:19

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: U.S. Treasury market "in good shape"; lower-than-expected repo volume was a deliberate choice

On September 10, the final settlement amount for the U.S. Treasury's buyback of Treasury securities stood at just $5.19 billion, below the previously announced cap of $6 billion. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent defended the outcome, stating that market bids were not sufficiently attractive and that the Treasury actively managed the pace of purchases, rather than facing insufficient demand. Citing strong auction data, he described the Treasury market as being in "good shape" and attributed the rise in yields to fluctuations in energy prices rather than fiscal concerns.

wallstreetcn07:45

Ahead of the CPI release, U.S. Treasuries moved first: the probability of a rate hike surpassed 70%, and the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%.

Ahead of the U.S. CPI release on Friday, the bond market moved first. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.943%, and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week climbed to 71%. Rising oil prices and inflationary pressures have fueled market concerns that the Fed may resume tightening, with the CPI data poised to deliver the decisive blow.

Golden10 Data07:26

Top 20 by Trading Volume | Apple surges 4% against the market trend; Microsoft plans to triple its data center capacity; NVIDIA falls 2%, Jensen Huang again refutes allegations of circular financing; JPMorgan initiates coverage on SK Hynix ADR with a targ

Micron topped U.S. equity trading volume on Thursday, closing down 4.90% with a turnover of $25.27 billion. Apple ranked second, closing up 3.56% with a turnover of $22.576 billion. During its keynote event held at headquarters on Wednesday, Apple unveiled its most anticipated and ambitious new product: the iPhone Duo foldable smartphone. The launch also served as a comprehensive showcase of Apple's AI capabilities.

Global Market Briefing06:46

Long-term municipal bond yields hit their highest level since 2011, pressured by U.S. Treasury sell-offs and a surge in supply.

On Thursday, the yield on 30-year U.S. municipal bonds rose 14 basis points intraday, marking the largest single-day increase in over a year, while the 10-year municipal bond yield climbed 15 basis points to a more-than-one-year high. On Wednesday, investors withdrew $460 million from municipal bond funds, the largest outflow recorded in over a year.

wallstreetcn06:42

U.S. Stock Market Close | Inflation concerns reignite, leading to a fourth consecutive day of declines for major indices; AI-related trades retreat, with Micron, LITE, and NBIS falling 5%; oil prices surge past $100, while gold suffers sharp losses; the y

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.65%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 2%, with Intel declining over 5%. The memory chip sector suffered significant losses, as SK Hynix fell 5.2% and Micron Technology dropped 4.9%. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note rose by 13 basis points, while the 10-year yield touched 4.96%. Gold prices declined 1.7%, breaking below the $4,400 threshold. WTI crude oil surged 7% for the day to close at $102.78 per barrel, and Brent crude rose more than 6%, with both benchmarks returning to their highest levels since the onset of the war.

wallstreetcn06:40

Large options trades have emerged in the U.S. Treasury market, with $14 million in premiums betting on the 10-year yield rising above 5%.

If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to approximately 5.1%, the trade will reach its break-even point; if it climbs further to 5.2%, potential profits could expand to around $15 million. The 10-year yield last touched the 5.2% level back in 2007.

wallstreetcn03:31

The U.S. Treasury’s long-term bond buyback program, exceeding $5 billion, fell short of its upper limit target; selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries remains unabated, with the 10-year yield approaching 5%.

The $6 billion figure remains limited relative to the roughly $32 trillion U.S. Treasury market and has failed to deliver the “shock effect” that some investors had anticipated. Deutsche Bank strategists bluntly described it as the Treasury “creating a monster that now needs to be fed constantly.”

wallstreetcn02:25

Did U.S. stocks miss the immediate "good news"? Earnings expectations have been rarely revised upward; strategists note that fundamentals are "too strong to be true."

Seaport Research Partners believes that U.S. equities are facing a significant divergence between corporate earnings and stock price performance: while second-quarter earnings were robust and analyst estimates continue to be revised upward, high interest rates and concerns over earnings sustainability are suppressing valuations, potentially creating mispricing opportunities in sectors such as industrials and transportation. However, should the Federal Reserve reissue signals of further rate hikes, short-term pressure on the stock market may persist.

wallstreetcn00:53

U.S. equity risk premium hits lowest level since 2002; JPMorgan warns that the impact of rising interest rates will be more severe than in the past two decades

The risk buffer for U.S. equities is running critically low. JPMorgan warns that the equity risk premium of the S&P 500 has fallen to 2.1%, its lowest level since 2002 and more than 100 basis points below the historical average. This era of low premiums conceals three major risks: a systemic increase in the stock market’s sensitivity to interest rate shocks, rebalancing pressures as global investors’ equity overweight reaches a two-decade high, and the strengthening positive correlation between stocks and bonds, which continues to undermine risk parity strategies. Should real interest rates rise further, this quiet valuation repricing could manifest violently.

wallstreetcnSep 10 22:33

US Midterm Elections Enter Final Sprint: Wall Street Bets on a Divided Congress, US Stocks May Rebound but Beware of a "Clean Sweep"

Investors are increasingly confident that the Democratic Party will secure control of the House of Representatives in November, while also believing that the Republican Party holds a slight advantage in the Senate. For many market observers, this represents the most ideal scenario, carrying the lowest risk of disruptive policy changes.

Zhitong FinanceSep 10 21:50

PPI data rattles Wall Street! Probability of a Fed rate hike in September rises to 70%

The latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that rising energy prices last month have once again exerted inflationary pressure, which could increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its meeting next week.

Golden10 DataSep 10 21:48

Rising energy prices are prolonging the battle against inflation! U.S. producer inflation exceeds expectations, and the European Central Bank raises interest rates again. Are we bracing for a high-volatility squeeze?

Since the outbreak of the war in Iran in February, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the second time to address signs that inflation will remain well above 2%. On Thursday, the ECB's deposit facility rate was increased by 25 basis points to 2.5%.

Zhitong FinanceSep 10 20:57