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Fed Meeting Minutes: All 19 policymakers supported a rate hike in September, though their rationales varied; most expect additional hikes within the year, suggesting no rush in October.
Most officials view a September rate hike as an "insurance" measure to address persistent inflation; a minority see it as a necessary step to rein in inflation. Overall, there was no indication of a willingness to push for consecutive, multiple rate increases. The "New Fed News Agency" highlighted the minutes' key takeaway: "Most officials believe that another rate increase before year-end could be appropriate." Nearly all officials judged that inflation remains elevated and that the labor market is near full employment. Many noted that, despite rising long-term Treasury yields, financial conditions continue to support economic growth. Some officials cautioned that while AI is likely to expand investment and boost productivity, it could also fuel inflation.
The "Magnificent Seven" U.S. stocks boast wealth comparable to national GDPs: their combined market capitalization nears $25 trillion, making their economic scale second only to that of the United States.
The combined market capitalization of the seven major U.S. tech stocks is approaching $25 trillion; if treated as an economy, it would rank second only to the United States. Analysts warn that a widespread shift in AI infrastructure investment could ripple beyond the tech sector, impacting the U.S. economy and even the global economy.
'Trump Administration Paving Way for Temporary Sale of Some Unapproved Peptides' - The Washington Post
'Trump Administration Paving Way for Temporary Sale of Some Unapproved Peptides' - The Washington Post
Express News | Strategist: AI Bubble Could Trigger Worst S&P 500 Crash Since 2008
A head of market strategy at a London-based investment bank has issued a stern warning to investors: the AI-driven investment boom could end soon, potentially triggering the most severe market crash since the global financial crisis. Global equity markets have hit record highs this year, buoyed by optimism surrounding the surge in spending on AI infrastructure. However, Joachim Klement of Panmure Liberum states that his base-case forecast is for this investment frenzy to unravel as early as 2027, leading to a sharp decline in stock prices. Klement remarked, "My core view is that the AI bubble will burst in 2027 or 2028—that is, at some point within the next two years." He pointed out that hyperscale cloud service providers have largely exhausted their free cash flow, while debt costs are rising rapidly to levels that these companies may find unsustainable. Klement has set his year-end 2027 target for the S&P 500 Index at 5,000 points, implying a 36% downside from current levels.
How to View the Current AI Bubble? Industry Leaders Are Deeply Divided
Novogratz said, "The bubble isn't spectacular enough yet"; Dalio warned, "We're very close to a burst"; and Taleb pointed out that the real risk lies in the bond market. According to Goldman Sachs data, AI stocks now account for 42% of the S&P 500, surpassing the peak of the 1999 tech bubble. The central debate has now shifted to "how to make money before the crash."
U.S. Treasuries are already pricing in a crisis, so why do U.S. equities remain resilient? Deutsche Bank reveals five major structural misalignments in the market.
A rare "stock-bond misalignment" has sounded the alarm on Wall Street: while the bond market is sharply pricing in high inflation and debt risks, global stock markets are still reveling at historic highs. Deutsche Bank warns that persistent inflation makes it difficult for central banks to ease policy, and such an extreme divergence between stocks and bonds cannot last. If financial pressures do not abate, risk assets trading at elevated levels could face a delayed but severe sell-off.