Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) News

Rate Hikes vs. No Rate Hikes: Who Can Halt the Rise in Long-Term Bond Yields?

How will US Treasury yields evolve following the conclusion of the September FOMC meeting?

Chuan Yue Global MacroSep 7 18:19

New York Fed Analyzes Global Dollar Reserves: Dollar Share Declines, but 'De-dollarization' Narrative Is Overstated

According to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the decline in the U.S. dollar's share of foreign exchange reserves does not reflect a broad-based shift away from the currency, but rather the actions of a limited number of reserve managers.

Zhitong FinanceSep 7 19:54

U.S. Treasury market faces a pivotal week: details on Wednesday’s buyback operations and the release of August CPI data on Friday

After a week of sharp volatility in the government bond market, traders will return to trading on Tuesday following the extended U.S. Labor Day holiday. However, the week ahead promises little respite, as market participants will focus closely on two key events to gauge the policy intentions of U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh: The first major event is scheduled for Wednesday, when the U.S. Treasury Department plans to release details of the bond buyback operation set for the following day. Under the previously expanded framework, the scale of long-term bond buybacks is expected to at least double the initial cap. Morgan Stanley even projects that single-operation buyback volumes could reach $10 billion in the future. This will be followed on Friday by the release of the latest August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data by the U.S. Department of Labor. Warsh and his colleagues have previously indicated that this data will be critical in determining whether the Federal Reserv

cls.cnSep 7 17:43

Will next week's U.S. CPI data trigger a September rate hike? BofA and Citi present two opposing scenarios.

BofA Securities projects that the core CPI will rise by 0.22% month-on-month in August, arguing that inflation remains sufficiently elevated to support a rate hike in September. In contrast, Citi forecasts core CPI growth of only 0.18%, with the annual rate declining to 2.3%, suggesting the Federal Reserve is more likely to hold rates steady. The divergence between these two institutions stems from the discrepancy between CPI and PCE trends, as well as Governor Waller’s key tolerance threshold for inflation. Analysts suggest that if the data comes in hotter than expected, the Fed may be forced to adopt a more aggressive tightening path.

wallstreetcnSep 6 09:11

What is a money market fund?

Main pointsMoney market funds are low-risk "parking lots" for cash, with stability, liquidity, and yield as their core objectives. They pool funds from numerous investors and allocate them to short‑

CSOPSep 5 01:04

快讯 | 美国8月非农增加16.2万人，远高于预期；失业率为4.1%符合预期

US Aug. Non-Farm Payrolls +162000 Vs +56000 Forecast, Prior +21000; US Aug. Unemployment Rate 4.1% Vs 4.1% Forecast, Prior 4.1%

BreakingsSep 4 20:30

Express News | Norway's sovereign wealth fund plans to reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings by approximately $80 billion.

According to the Financial Times, the management body of Norway's $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund has proposed adjusting its government bond portfolio to seek higher returns by allocating to other types of debt assets. Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) wrote to the Norwegian Ministry of Finance on Tuesday, recommending that the weight of government debt in the fund's benchmark bond index be reduced from 70% to 50%. It is estimated that this adjustment would reduce the fund's global government bond allocation by approximately $106 billion, with the majority of the reduction coming from U.S. Treasuries. Currently, slightly less than 26% of the fund's total assets are allocated to fixed-income securities. NBIM proposes reducing the fund's exposure to U.S. Treasuries by 12.2 percentage points, while increasing the holding ratio of non-government U.S. fixed-income assets by 11.4 percentage points. This is estimated to reduce the fund's allocation to U.S. Treasuries by nearly $80 billion. Additionally, the fund's allocation ratio to UK government bonds will remain unchanged, while the allocation ratio to Japanese government bonds will increase by 2.8 percentage points.

BreakingsSep 4 12:20

Waller’s dovish tone drives down U.S. Treasury yields; focus shifts to tonight’s 8:30 PM U.S. non-farm payrolls data

① Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated on Thursday that he would be inclined to keep interest rates unchanged as long as U.S. inflation continues to moderate; ② Influenced by this relatively dovish commentary, U.S. Treasury prices rose across the board on Thursday.

cls.cnSep 4 08:55

Why have U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise?

The rise in yields this year primarily reflects the economic recovery driven by expanded AI investment and the resurgence of inflation risks amid geopolitical conflicts, prompting the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory.

CICC InsightsSep 4 08:49

Express News | Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller: Recent data shows "some signs of easing inflation"

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that recent data show "some signs of easing inflation" and that his next decision on interest rates will "depend heavily" on the August inflation data to be released next week. Following Waller's remarks, U.S. Treasury yields edged lower; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell by 4 basis points to 4.754%. The three major U.S. stock index futures rose slightly, with Dow Jones futures up 0.45%.

BreakingsSep 3 20:43

Japanese government bond yields hit 30-year high, global markets face risk of unwinding yen carry trades

Japan's 10-year government bond yield surpassed 3% this week, reaching its highest level since 1996 and sparking global market concerns over a large-scale unwinding of yen carry trades. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly warned of the risks associated with disorderly volatility. The market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September, with some analysts expecting further action in October.

wallstreetcnSep 3 10:58

When will the inflection point in U.S. Treasury yields arrive?

The Jackson Hole Annual Symposium became a "critical battle" for Waller to restore the Federal Reserve's policy credibility, but it failed to alleviate deep-seated anxieties in the U.S. Treasury market. Following the conference, the U.S. Treasury yield curve briefly exhibited a bear-flattening trend: driven by heightened expectations of rate hikes, short-end rates rose sharply, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increasing by 14 basis points in a single day on August 28, while the long end rose by only 6 basis points. However, this pattern did not persist; long-term bond yields rebounded this week, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly touching the 4.8% mark as of September 1. Why have long-term bond yields risen again? We believe that one of the objectives of Waller's recent "hawkish" remarks was to repair the Federal Reserve's policy

Chuan Yue Global MacroSep 2 09:09

The unconventional U.S. Treasury repo maneuver proved short-lived as the wave of long-term bond selling resurged, pushing the 30-year yield back to its pre-intervention high of 5.27%.

As of Tuesday (September 1), the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note touched 5.27%, returning precisely to the level recorded on August 19 before Bessent announced the expansion of purchases. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for various lending rates, has risen by more than 10 basis points since then and is hovering around 4.8%.

Zhitong FinanceSep 2 06:59

Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz pushed up oil prices, U.S. stock index futures plunged, global bond market sell-offs intensified, and gold fell below $4,400.

Reports indicate that two supertankers were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, driving international oil prices higher. Brent crude rose 1.9% to $92.24 per barrel. Spot gold fell below $4,400 per ounce, trading at $4,399.45 per ounce, down more than 1% on the day. S&P 500 index futures declined 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 index futures dropped 0.7%.

wallstreetcnSep 1 16:45

Treasury buying offers negligible support! A surge of $215 billion in corporate bond issuances is set to hit in September, potentially erasing all gains from U.S. Treasury buybacks.

Many investors do not expect the market reversal to persist, as the Treasury’s debt purchases are likely to be offset by the $215 billion in corporate bonds scheduled for issuance in September.

Zhitong FinanceSep 1 11:20

Sell-off Resurfaces! 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Hits 19-Month High, Key Support Level Breached

① Driven by rising crude oil prices, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes have intensified significantly, with the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note surpassing the 4.75% threshold overnight for the first time since January 2025; ② Selling pressure has also rapidly spread to other maturities of U.S. Treasuries: the yield on the 5-year Treasury note climbed to a new high since early last year, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond broke through its previous week’s peak.

cls.cnSep 1 09:10

Bessent signals a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and describes the U.S. Treasury market as performing “well”.

① U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that he expects the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan to drive a stronger yen, implying a high likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September; ② Bessent insisted that U.S. Treasury yields have remained "largely flat" since Trump took office last year.

cls.cnSep 1 02:57

Following Waller's hawkish remarks, market focus shifts to rate hikes; Morgan Stanley sees balance sheet reduction as more likely

Following the Jackson Hole meeting, market attention has focused on interest rate hike expectations. However, Morgan Stanley economist Carpenter highlights that Governor Waller’s long-standing advocacy for shrinking the $7 trillion balance sheet should not be overlooked. The Federal Reserve is expected to launch a balance sheet reduction program exceeding $1.5 trillion next year, partially substituting for interest rate hikes.

wallstreetcnAug 31 08:34

U.S. Stock Market Close | Waller’s hawkish remarks fuel rate hike expectations, weighing on the three major indices which closed lower; chip stocks retreated, with NVIDIA falling over 4%; two-year U.S. Treasury yields surged sharply, while gold plunged 3%

The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower after V-shaped volatility: the Nasdaq Composite turned negative to close down 0.52%, the S&P 500 fell 0.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended nearly flat. AI computing stocks saw broad profit-taking, with NVIDIA closing down 4.57%, while software and cloud services bucked the trend, with Amazon rising 3.97% and Salesforce gaining 1.57%. Spot gold lost the $4,500 level and fell below its 200-day moving average, marking its worst single-day performance since early June. Brent crude oil accumulated a weekly decline of approximately 5%.

wallstreetcnAug 29 06:21

Express News | Walsh: Inflation Remains Above Target, Fed Still Has Work to Do

Federal Reserve Chair Walsh stated that inflation data does not indicate a significant improvement in the inflation trend; if the inflation rate does not quickly reach 2%, there is still work to be done.

BreakingsAug 28 22:01