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Inflation cools more than expected! U.S. July PPI growth narrows to 4.7%, driven primarily by lower energy costs
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month in July, with the year-on-year rate declining to 4.7%. The core PPI fell to 4.2% year-on-year, primarily driven by lower energy prices and a slowdown in service price inflation. The widening divergence between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the PPI is putting pressure on corporate profit margins. Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes remain unchanged, with the view that there is limited urgency for short-term policy adjustments. Future inflation trends will continue to depend on changes in energy prices.
S&P 500 Hits Record High as Producer Inflation Cools
U.S. stocks rose on Thursday as traders digested another mild inflation report, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to close at 7,798.99, after reaching an intraday historic high of 7,816.7. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% to 26,803.03, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 53,839.99. Most sectors closed higher, led by communication services, while materials posted the largest decline. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. producer prices remained flat in July, driven by continued declines in energy costs, contrary to market expectations of a monthly increase.
US Equity Markets End Higher Amid Weak Producer Inflation Print, Drop in Crude Oil Prices
US equity indexes ended higher Thursday after a weak producer price inflation report and a drop in crude oil prices.* The Producer Price Index held steady in July, following a 0.1% decrease in June,
Divergence Among Fed Officials Emerges: Barkin Supports Holding Steady, Hammack Insists on Rate Hike
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin supports holding interest rates steady, arguing that inflation stems primarily from temporary shocks, but warns that AI investment and supply chain dynamics could exert persistent price pressures. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, meanwhile, reaffirmed her stance in favor of rate hikes, cautioning against financial stability risks such as U.S. Treasury leverage and an AI bubble. With unemployment remaining low and economic data presenting a mixed picture, the Federal Reserve’s policy path for its September meeting is fraught with uncertainty.
Wall Street’s Most Hawkish! Bank of America Reiterates Aggressive Forecast: The Federal Reserve to Raise Rates Three Times This Year
① Following the release of the moderately benign U.S. July CPI report, Bank of America economists reiterated their forecast that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times this year, with the first hike scheduled for September; ② This positions Bank of America as the most aggressive mainstream investment bank on Wall Street in terms of interest rate forecasts. In contrast, most Wall Street investment banks expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady this year.
Signs of weak demand reemerge as 30-year U.S. Treasury auction yield hits highest level since 2001
On the day before the 30-year U.S. Treasury auction, the winning yield at the 10-year Treasury auction hit a new high since the 2007 financial crisis. The auction also saw a slight "tail," with the winning yield marginally higher than the when-issued yield, signaling demand that was slightly weaker than expected. While this does not indicate a systemic collapse in demand for U.S. Treasuries, it highlights the dual pressures of supply and financing costs facing the market.