Express News | Prime Minister of Pakistan: Confirms Final Text of U.S.-Iran Agreement Has Been Reached
Express News | Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi: The management model of the Strait of Hormuz will not revert to its pre-war state. Sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran and Oman. Iran will ensure the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz
U.S. consumer confidence rebounds from historic lows as falling gasoline prices provide some relief.
① U.S. consumer confidence rebounded from a historic low in early June as gasoline prices declined, with the preliminary reading rising to 48.9—an increase of 9% from the previous month and marking the first gain since February of this year. ② Inflationary pressures are expected to ease as Middle East tensions gradually subside and supply chain conditions improve. However, if the conflict persists throughout the summer, stronger inflationary headwinds could weigh on the economic growth outlook.
Ueda hospitalized, Uchida steps in: This 45-minute press conference next week could shape market direction for the second half of the year
In August 2024, the Bank of Japan triggered a global wave of unwinding in carry trades with a 25-basis-point rate hike. Twenty-two months later, history is repeating itself: positions have returned to pre-selloff levels, and the BOJ has again raised rates by 25 basis points—but this time, Governor Kazuo Ueda is absent due to illness, leaving Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, known as the 'dovish firefighter,' to face the global media alone. With hundreds of billions in short positions looming and the cushion from carry trade arbitrage halved, any miscommunication could ignite a cascading selloff. These 45 minutes will be the most dangerous moment for global markets this year.
Don't worry—Wash won't let the Federal Reserve remain in a 'communication blackout' indefinitely.
Richard Clarida, former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board and currently at Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), stated unequivocally: “The First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution guarantees freedom of speech.” This perspective has also set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s new communication paradigm. Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Chair of the Federal Reserve, will preside over his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week, and markets are closely watching the policy paradigm shift brought about by this leadership transition. With Warsh now formally at the helm of the Fed, global financial markets remain on edge, as stakeholders eagerly anticipate how this high-level personnel change will reshape the operational framework of the Federal Reserve. Market participants widely
Bank of America: Fed expected to drop dovish bias and signal no rate cuts this year
Gelonghui, June 12 | Bank of America expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remove its dovish tilt from its statement, and anticipates a unanimous decision next week. The bank forecasts that the FOMC will keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% during its June meeting. It also predicts that the Summary of Economic Projections will reflect higher inflation, lower unemployment, and no rate cuts this year. A minority of policymakers might project rate hikes. As other economists have forecast, the bank noted that newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh will not submit his own projections and will adopt a relatively dovish stance during the press conference. He will propose