US April CPI to be released tonight at 20:30: Alarm bells ringing for 'second-round effects' on inflation, will it become harder for the Fed to cut interest rates?

The market is concerned about whether the energy shock is beginning to spread comprehensively to rents, food, transportation, and core consumption. Wall Street has warned that a new round of systemic inflation may be taking shape.

Golden10 Data10:48

The Fed's new chief faces a dilemma: cutting interest rates could lead to soaring inflation, while not cutting risks facing a lawsuit from Trump.

Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chair, is about to be confirmed this week but already finds himself in a dire predicament: the Iran war has driven inflation up to 3.5%, and the FOMC saw the highest number of dissenting votes in three decades. Meanwhile, Trump is not only publicly pressuring for interest rate cuts but also threatening legal action. Cutting rates risks runaway inflation, while refraining from doing so sharply escalates political risks—this crisis of central bank independence could reshape the global monetary policy landscape.

wallstreetcn17minutes ago

The specter of stagflation returns: Which parts of the 1970s asset playbook still hold true today?

Fifty-three years ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Burns characterized the oil price shock as an "exogenous variable," after which inflation spiraled out of control for seven years. Today, the new chairman, Warsh, has almost replicated the same logic — CPI has risen to 3.7%, the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded, and history seems to be knocking at the door. However, three structural differences determine that this is not a complete replay of the 1970s but rather a more sophisticated game of asset differentiation.

Futu News18:51

US CPI to be released at 8:30 PM tonight! With impacts from crude oil, AI chips, and rental costs, the data is expected to show a significant increase.

The US CPI for April is expected to maintain its strong momentum, with the overall CPI projected to rise to 3.7% year-on-year and core CPI reaching 2.7% year-on-year, potentially marking the largest increase since September 2023. Although the market attributes high inflation primarily to external shocks and technical adjustments, and has not repriced the risk of interest rate hikes, the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut has become increasingly unlikely.

wallstreetcn18:50

Major Wall Street banks are successively pushing back their expectations for interest rate cuts! Treasury yields plummet across the board ahead of key inflation data.

① Before the highly anticipated release of US April CPI data on Tuesday, US Treasury prices plummeted across the board on Monday (May 11); ② Previously, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America joined the ranks of Wall Street banks over the weekend in postponing their forecasts for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Both institutions believe that employment and inflation data justify the Fed maintaining interest rates at current levels for a longer period.

cls.cn08:35

Futu Morning Brief | Trump expresses strong anticipation for his upcoming visit to China; U.S. April CPI data to be released at 20:30, with Morgan Stanley suggesting the figures could be 'more explosive'; reports indicate Kuaishou plans to spin off Kelin

The Senate Banking Committee will hold a formal markup session on the Clarity Act on Thursday; the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite hit new highs, with storage and optical communication sectors continuing their upward momentum.

Futu News08:02