Has the three-year AI bull market reached an inflection point? Two opposing views from Wall Street clash head-on.

① Wall Street is sharply divided over whether U.S. equity valuations have peaked and whether the AI-driven rally will continue or reverse, with notable disagreements even within the same institutions; ② The bearish camp’s core argument is that the current stock market is in an earnings bubble, with nearly all valuation metrics indicating that U.S. equities are overvalued; ③ The bullish camp contends that cloud-computing giants are actually trading at low valuations, and their profitability and returns will continue to improve amid tight supply of computing power.

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CICC: The contradiction between robust financing demand and tight liquidity is becoming increasingly pronounced, and the market is entering a 'halftime break' phase.

From a strategic perspective, the bank reiterated its view that the technology sector rally is expected to continue after the mid-year break and remains bullish on broad-based safe-haven assets.

Zhitong Finance09:12

Goldman Sachs Analyzes the Fed's 'Five Working Groups': If Warsh Wants to Use This as a Basis for Rate Cuts, It Will Be Difficult to Gain Support

Goldman Sachs believes that Waller is attempting to push through a working group aggressive changes such as reducing forward guidance, significantly shrinking the balance sheet, and implementing monetary easing based on an AI-driven disinflation thesis. However, these proposals conflict with the institutional inertia of the FOMC and are unlikely to gain majority support. The Federal Reserve’s policy will not undergo a radical shift, and the most probable outcome is a compromise that superficially accommodates Waller but has limited substantive impact.

wallstreetcn09:08

U.S.-Iran tensions escalate further? U.S. military casualties mount daily, and Trump vows Iran will pay several times over!

① Tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated this week, with recent clashes between U.S. forces and Iran resulting in at least three soldiers killed and nearly 100 U.S. military personnel injured; ② Trump posted that he had instructed the military to carry out a strong retaliatory strike against Iran and claimed that U.S. forces were conducting 'intense bombing' of Iran, although the U.S. government stated it remains open to a diplomatic solution.

cls.cn08:16

Futu Morning Brief | U.S. announces 50% tariffs on certain Canadian products; short positions in U.S. equities approach historic highs as tech giants' earnings set market direction; HKEX says extended trading hours still under early discussion

Trump signed a new proclamation imposing a 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods. The head of the artificial intelligence safety agency in U.S. President Trump's administration has resigned.

Futu News08:07

DoubleLine Capital expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady this year, and Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance has already established strong credibility in the market.

Asset management firm Shuangxian Capital stated that, given Federal Reserve Chair沃什has established strong policy credibility in the market, the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady this year, and the firm is therefore increasing its allocation to short-term U.S. Treasuries.

Zhitong Finance07:22