Australian Dollar SEP6 (6A2609) News

Following the CPI release, investment banks are scrambling to revise their forecasts: the camp expecting no rate hikes this year has capitulated, while hawks are betting on three rate increases by January next year.

TD Securities has adopted the most hawkish stance, shifting from a forecast of unchanged rates for the full year to projecting three rate hikes by January next year. JPMorgan now expects one hike

wallstreetcn04:59

CICC: Sticky inflation supports rate hikes; watch for hawkish signals

In August, the U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis (versus 0.1% the previous month) and 3.4% year-on-year (unchanged from the prior month). Core CPI increased 0.3% month-on-month (up from 0.2% in the prior month) and 2.4% year-on-year (down slightly from 2.5% the previous month), marginally above market expectations. The month-on-month rebound in inflation was driven primarily by higher energy prices, telecom rate hikes, and persistent inflationary pressures stemming from artificial intelligence. We believe this CPI report has already met the Federal Reserve's threshold for raising interest rates, and we therefore expect the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points at its September 16 meeting.

Gelonghui Finance15:07

Traders’ Red Lines Shift Online: A 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Above 6% Is the True Threshold for Personal Portfolios

This week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly approached 5%, yet a Bloomberg survey indicates that traders are willing to tolerate yields above 6% in their own portfolios. The underlying rationale is that managing one's own capital carries no accountability for "being fired," resulting in a much higher risk tolerance than that of institutions managing other people's assets. Moreover, compared with the absolute level of Treasury yields, the pace of their rise has a more pronounced impact on the market.

wallstreetcn14:12

The probability of a rate hike has surged to 86%, yet the U.S. dollar has not strengthened broadly, with weaknesses attributed to the euro, pound sterling, and yen.

This week, global markets have been repricing around inflation data and expectations of interest-rate hikes. In the U.S., August CPI rose faster month-on-month, oil prices remained in the triple

FX678 Finance11:20

Once the Federal Reserve initiates a rate-hiking cycle, is a sequence of three consecutive hikes a reasonable expectation?

BMO anticipates consecutive follow-up hikes in October and December, with the cumulative impact of three hikes potentially erasing all anticipated rate cuts for 2025. Vanguard Group considers "three

wallstreetcn10:11

Key Currency View: The US dollar is disappointing but the bullish stance is maintained; carry trades perform strongly

Main pointsMaintaining a bullish stance on the U.S. dollar, despite its recent underwhelming performance. Despite the dollar's cheap valuation, the Fed's hawkish repricing, and soaring energy prices,

CSOP10:05

Actions Following the Rhetoric: Goldman Sachs’ View on the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Hungarian Forint, South African Rand, and G10 Currencies

Main pointsThe U.S. dollar is weighed down by economic data, and uncertainty surrounding the policy reaction function is driving downside risks. Goldman Sachs attributes the dollar's recent weakness

CSOP10:04

FX Technical Update: USD/JPY Breaks Below Key Support; AUD/USD May Form Top Pattern

Main pointsThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains in a neutral range, lacking clear directional guidance. The index has rebounded from a consolidation pattern below the key resistance level of 100.083–10

CSOPSep 11 22:42

Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week? The U.S. August CPI data will be released at 20:30 tonight, marking a pivotal moment for the markets.

① At 20:30 Beijing Time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the August CPI data, which will be the final "inflation puzzle piece" available to the Federal Reserve before its interest rate decision next week. ② As widely discussed by market participants recently, this week's inflation report is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's actions at next week's monetary policy meeting.

cls.cnSep 11 15:29

U.S. Treasury yields approach the 5% "psychological barrier"! The global bond market sell-off intensifies as financial markets await tonight's 8:30 PM CPI "final verdict"

A global bond sell-off has pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes toward the critical 5% level.

Zhitong FinanceSep 11 11:58

Brent Crude Above $105 Likely Becoming Asset-Wide Headwind -- Market Talk

0204 GMT - Prices of Brent crude oil above $105 per barrel are becoming a broader headwind for assets including equities and precious metals, OCBC Group Research's Christopher Wong says in a

WSJSep 11 10:04

The Australian dollar has stabilized after an overnight drop of 0.80%, but the real test lies ahead tonight.

During the Asian session on Friday (September 11), the AUD/USD pair traded in a narrow range, hovering around 0.7155 and remaining nearly flat for the day. On Thursday, the AUD/USD fell approximately 0.80% as U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data exceeded expectations, prompting markets to price in a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. The pair retreated from its intraday high of 0.7222 to close near 0.7156. U.S. Treasury yields surged significantly, while the U.S. Dollar Index closed around 99.05, up about 0.30%. Oil prices breaking through the $100 per barrel mark further amplified inflation concerns, with the upcoming U.S. CPI data release on Friday set to become

FX678 FinanceSep 11 08:25

Asian Currencies Consolidate, But Haven Demand for Dollar May Weigh -- Market Talk

2353 GMT - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade, but may be weighed by safe-haven demand for the greenback. "Higher oil prices and weaker global equities supported the USD,"

WSJSep 11 07:53

PPI data rattles Wall Street! Probability of a Fed rate hike in September rises to 70%

The latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that rising energy prices last month have once again exerted inflationary pressure, which could increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its meeting next week.

Golden10 DataSep 10 21:48

FX basis signals shifts in USD hedging activity: a decline in the AUD basis suggests increased hedging, maintaining the year-end AUD/USD target at 0.74

Main pointsThere are no clear signs of a significant increase in yen‑hedging activity. Although the recent yen rebound has sparked market speculation about whether Japanese investors are stepping up

CSOPSep 10 14:39

Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week? Two major inflation reports released over the next two days will set the tone.

① The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting on September 15–16, with significant uncertainty remaining regarding the central bank's actions. ② Over the next two days, two critical inflation data releases will set the tone for whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next week. ③ The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data should provide clearer insights into whether U.S. inflation is reaccelerating or moderating.

cls.cnSep 10 11:25

Australian Dollar Touches Fresh Mid-May Highs -- Market Talk

2339 GMT - The Australian dollar briefly touched 72.38 U.S. cents in recent hours, its highest level since the middle of May. The currency is being supported by the prospect of additional tightening

WSJSep 10 07:39

With expectations for an RBA rate hike fully priced in, how much further can the AUD bulls go?

During the Asian session on Wednesday (September 9), the Australian dollar continued to consolidate at elevated levels near 0.7220 against the U.S. dollar. The current price remains within the upper trading range observed since May 15, with the bullish trend intact. In a media interview on Tuesday evening, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser provided the clearest signal to date that the central bank is weighing another interest rate hike this month, describing inflation as the "single big issue." He highlighted three key drivers sustaining inflationary pressures: conflicts in the Middle East, AI-driven global prosperity, and domestic supply constraints. While Hauser did not explicitly state that a rate hike is "inevitable," he emphasized that the decision rests with the committee, with the core question being whether sufficient action has already been taken. Australia

FX678 FinanceSep 9 08:26

Express News | “I am the house now; if you want to bet against me, go ahead,” Bessent warned markets not to short the yen against him.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has challenged traders attempting to short the yen, stating that he effectively possesses "insider information" when assessing market conditions. Bessent remarked, "Whenever someone says, 'Oh, the Treasury Secretary is taking a risk by doing this,' I think that is precisely my dream, because I hold asymmetric information." A former hedge fund executive, Bessent recalled several instances of his market interventions, including the joint purchase of yen with the Japanese government on July 31. At that time, the yen strengthened significantly, but gradually gave back those gains over the following trading sessions, partly because traders pointed out that the U.S. Treasury's foreign exchange intervention funds are limited. Bessent stated, "I am now the house, so when we intervene in the yen market, I have a fairly good sense of what actions the Japanese government, the Bank of Japan, and Japanese policymakers will take. And if you wish, you are welcome to bet against me."

BreakingsSep 9 06:33

RBA seeks to cool economy but rules out recession; is the rate-hiking cycle over?

On Tuesday (September 8), during the Asian session, AUD/USD traded in a narrow range around 0.7210, edging slightly lower for the day, while remaining within the high‑range seen since May 15.Behind

FX678 FinanceSep 8 13:13