Trump's influence on oil prices and rising expectations of uncontrollable inflation have made global central banks hesitant to take action.
The second wave of energy shocks within five years is imminent, with the world's five major central banks expected to remain on hold this week. Trump's social media posts continue to stir the oil market, while conflicts in the Middle East make inflation trends difficult to predict. The Federal Reserve remains vigilant against the risk of high inflation becoming "entrenched" in the economy, whereas the European Central Bank feels more comfortable adopting a wait-and-see stance. Expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England have abruptly cooled. The painful lesson from misjudging inflation in 2022 is still fresh in the minds of central banks, leading them to prefer staying cautious rather than making hasty moves amid uncertainty.
BOE's Chief Economist Skeptical Of "Wait-and-See" Response to Inflation Threats
BOE's Greene Sees Wait For Hard Evidence Of Second-Round Effects
ECB Foreign Exchange Reference Rates - Apr 02
Alert Escalation! Bank of England Warns AI Deployment May Spiral Out of Control, Potentially Triggering Systemic Shocks in Private Credit Markets
The Bank of England has warned about the potential threats posed by AI to financial stability, pointing out that the rapid expansion of AI usage by financial institutions could evolve into systemic financial risks. This risk has already materialized in the private credit market, with recent fund redemptions partly attributed to investor concerns over AI's disruptive prospects. AI-related risks may escalate quickly, spreading from payments and financial markets to areas such as private credit, thereby exacerbating refinancing difficulties.
Currencies With Fiscal Risks Look Vulnerable Due to Iran Conflict -- Market Talk