Euro AUG7 (6E2708) News

A 50-50 bet on a rate hike: Tonight at 20:30, CPI data may determine whether the Fed 'pulls the trigger' in September or continues to hold off

Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 50% probability of a rate hike in September. This means tonight’s CPI data could directly tip the balance. If the data aligns with expectations, the Federal Reserve may remain on hold; if it exceeds expectations, it could open the door to a series of consecutive rate hikes.

Golden10 Data09:15

Oil prices surged to a one-and-a-half-week high amid geopolitical risks, reigniting inflation concerns—how significant is the euro's 'external pressure'?

During the Asian session on Wednesday (August 12), the euro edged slightly lower against the U.S. dollar in choppy trading, currently hovering around 1.1535. Traders remained cautious ahead of key data releases—Germany’s July HICP and tonight’s U.S. CPI figures—as well as further developments in the Middle East. Oil prices continued to rise due to geopolitical risks, and inflation concerns kept Federal Reserve rate hike expectations alive, providing support to the dollar and capping upside potential for the euro. U.S. inflation data has become the key near-term catalyst, with market focus now shifting to tonight’s release of the U.S. July CPI data and Thursday’s PPI figures, which will offer critical guidance on the Fed’s future policy path.

FX678 Finance10:53

[Today's USD/JPY Outlook] The dollar/yen pair may struggle to gain momentum, with downward pressure on the dollar likely to intensify as the rate approaches 163 yen.

[FX Market Opening Comment] In the New York foreign exchange market on the 11th, the USD/JPY pair strengthened to 159.36 yen before weakening to 159.17 yen at the close. While sustained high crude oil prices supported dollar buying, gains were capped by several factors: the U.S. weekly ADP employment figure fell to its lowest level in six months, U.S. existing home sales declined in July, and remarks by Pakistan’s Defense Minister suggested that the U.S. and Iran were nearing an agreement regarding negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. The USD/JPY pair is expected to remain subdued on August 12.

Fisco Japan06:46

U.S. CPI for July arrives tomorrow! JPMorgan outlines five scenarios, with the S&P 500 potentially swinging by as much as 2%.

JPMorgan's trading desk recently warned that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July, scheduled for release on Wednesday, could cause the S&P 500 index to swing by as much as 2%.

cls.cnAug 11 22:41

Crude oil prices rise and the dollar extends gains as U.S.-Iran negotiations stall.

[London Market Overview] In the London foreign exchange market on the 11th, the USD/JPY pair edged higher, rising from 159.28 yen to 159.38 yen. The dollar continued to attract buying amid rising crude oil prices due to turmoil in the Middle East and higher U.S. long-term interest rates, while the yen faced sustained selling pressure driven by concerns over Japan’s fiscal situation. The EUR/USD pair moved lower, dominated by dollar buying, with lows revised downward from $1.1538 to $1.1531. The EUR/JPY pair rose from 183.17 yen to 183.63 yen, but momentum stalled amid persistent caution regarding potential currency intervention.

Fisco Japan05:09

Express News | The U.S. Dollar Index rose on the 11th.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.02% on the day, closing at 99.828 in late foreign exchange trading. As of the close of New York forex trading, 1 euro was worth 1.1540 U.S. dollars, down from 1.1542 dollars in the previous session; 1 British pound was worth 1.3503 U.S. dollars, down from 1.3509 dollars the previous day. One U.S. dollar bought 159.26 Japanese yen, up from 159.24 yen the previous session; 1 U.S. dollar exchanged for 0.8112 Swiss francs, higher than 0.8101 francs the prior day; 1 U.S. dollar bought 1.3920 Canadian dollars, down from 1.3942 Canadian dollars the previous session; and 1 U.S. dollar exchanged for 9.5244 Swedish kronor, up from 9.5016 kronor the day before.

Breakings03:29

ECB Foreign Exchange Reference Rates - Aug 11

Following are European Central Bank foreign exchange reference rates. All currencies are quoted against the euro. US Dollar USD 1.1540 Japanese Yen JPY 183.72

Dow JonesAug 11 21:55

US Dollar Mixed Early Tuesday Ahead Redbook, Existing Home Sales

The US dollar was mixed against its major trading partners early Tuesday -- up versus the euro and pound, down versus the yen and Canadian dollar -- ahead of the release of weekly Redbook same-store

MT NewswiresAug 11 19:34

‘The New Fed Wire’ Issues Strong Warning: September Rate Hike Hinges on Inflation Data!

① The so-called 'New Fed Wire' stated that if the U.S. July CPI data released on Wednesday comes in mild, it would simultaneously ease the pressure on both Waller personally and the FOMC to raise interest rates—pressure stemming from their ongoing reassessment of whether they had underestimated the resilience of the U.S. economy. ② Conversely, if the data remains elevated, it could force him to demonstrate through concrete action the point he struggled last month to articulate clearly.

cls.cnAug 11 16:41

Low Volatility in Euro Vs Dollar Could Persist -- Market Talk

0750 GMT - Realized volatility in the euro versus the dollar is likely to remain low in the near term, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. "It is hard to see that environment changing anytime soon--

WSJAug 11 15:50

Middle East tensions push oil prices higher, hawkish remarks from Ha Ma Ke, and the U.S. CPI release looms—will bulls or bears prevail at EUR 1.1540?

During the Asian session on Tuesday (August 11), the euro edged slightly lower against the U.S. dollar, trading around 1.1535, down approximately 0.04%. Markets are weighing conflicting factors: weak nonfarm payroll data has diminished the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, providing support to the euro; however, heightened tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and keeping rate hike expectations alive. Traders remain cautious near the highest level reached since June 17, which was touched on Friday, awaiting further developments on U.S. inflation data and the situation in the Middle East. The soft nonfarm payroll data has curbed the urgency for rate hikes, limiting the dollar's upside.

FX678 FinanceAug 11 14:41

"USD/JPY May Struggle to Extend Gains as Key Psychological Levels Loom; Market Wary of FX Intervention"

[Overseas Markets Today] In European and U.S. foreign exchange markets on the 11th, the USD/JPY pair is expected to struggle for further gains. Surging crude oil prices amid turmoil in the Middle East are raising inflation concerns, making the pair susceptible to dollar buying. However, as the psychologically significant 160-yen level comes within reach, caution regarding currency intervention is likely to cap the dollar's upside. Peace talks between the U.S. and Iran have stalled, and the previous day saw safe-haven dollar buying driven by renewed concerns over a prolonged Middle East conflict. Last Friday's U.S. employment report was unexpectedly weak, and the U.S. Federal Reserve (

Fisco JapanAug 11 10:57

Weak non-farm data weighs on the dollar, prompting a pullback; focus shifts this week to inflation and consumer spending data.

Last week, prior to the Federal Reserve's policy decision, the U.S. Dollar Index remained range-bound. However, the subsequent release of weaker-than-expected July nonfarm payroll data marked a turning point in market sentiment: downward revisions to job additions and slowing wage growth prompted markets to reassess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory, driving the Dollar Index lower by Friday. Weaker dollar sentiment lifted the euro to a multi-week high against the greenback, with the Australian dollar and British pound also advancing, while USD/JPY declined in tandem. This week, market focus will center on upcoming U.S. inflation and consumption data, including CPI, PPI, and retail sales. The dollar faces two-way pressures—if inflation proves sticky, it could provide short-term support to the index.

CME GroupAug 11 10:09

[Today's Outlook for the Yen Exchange Rate] The USD/JPY pair is expected to remain firm, but as it approaches 160 yen, growing concerns over currency intervention are likely to cap the dollar's upside.

[FX Market Opening Comment] In the New York foreign exchange market on the 10th, the dollar-yen pair rose from 158.43 to 159.36, closing at 159.32. In addition to Iran appointing a hardline former commander as its top security official and demanding that the U.S. pay compensation for conflict-related damages and cease illegal activities as conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump has also announced plans to demand in future negotiations that Iran pay compensation to the bereaved families of domestic and foreign victims of Iranian attacks and killings.

Fisco JapanAug 11 07:38

Express News | The U.S. Dollar Index rose on the 10th.

The U.S. Dollar Index rose on the 10th. The index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, gained 0.27% on the day and closed at 99.809 in late foreign exchange trading. As of late New York forex trading, 1 euro was worth 1.1542 U.S. dollars, down from 1.1564 dollars in the previous session; 1 British pound was worth 1.3509 U.S. dollars, up from 1.3499 dollars the previous day. One U.S. dollar bought 159.24 Japanese yen, compared to 157.55 yen the prior session; 1 U.S. dollar equaled 0.8101 Swiss francs, up from 0.8076 francs previously; 1 U.S. dollar exchanged for 1.3942 Canadian dollars, compared to 1.3937 Canadian dollars the day before; and 1 U.S. dollar traded for 9.5016 Swedish kronor, higher than 9.4701 kronor in the previous session.

BreakingsAug 11 03:30

Low USD Hedging Ratio: Will History Repeat Itself?

At the end of February this year, U.S. President Trump announced military strikes against Iran. This geopolitical risk event swiftly triggered a surge in safe-haven trading activity, igniting a broad-based wave of U.S. dollar purchases globally. The core driver behind the dollar’s recent strength lies in the reshaping of the global energy landscape: as an energy self-sufficient economy, the United States has significantly benefited from the current geopolitical turmoil, while energy-import-dependent economies in Europe and Asia have faced pronounced economic pressure. This divergence in economic resilience has propelled the U.S. dollar higher, providing the initial impetus for its rally. In June, the dollar received further support. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled clearly

FX678 FinanceAug 11 00:23

Low Dollar Hedges Leave Currency Vulnerable -- Market Talk

1307 GMT - Investor protection against the risk of the dollar falling appears to have returned to very low levels, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Some estimates suggest European hedge ratios on U.

WSJAug 10 21:07

Foreign Exchange Futures Position Report: Heavy Exit from USD Long Positions, Large-Scale Covering of JPY Short Positions

The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report shows the positions held by large speculators and asset management firms in the CME Group futures markets, serving as a sentiment indicator for market analysis. Below is the COT positioning data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as of Tuesday, August 4. There is a three-day lag between the report’s release date and the actual trader positions it records—the report is published on Fridays but includes data only through the preceding Tuesday. Given this timing, it is better suited for longer-term traders. Last week, net long positions in the U.S. dollar futures market declined sharply, while bearish bets on the Japanese yen surged following intervention in the currency market by the Bank of Japan.

FX678 FinanceAug 10 20:23

US Dollar Rises Early Monday, Focus on July CPI, Retail Sales

The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Monday, except for a decline versus the Canadian dollar, ahead of a busy week of economic data releases, highlighted by consumer price and

MT NewswiresAug 10 19:42

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Beats Expectations

InvestingCubeAug 10 19:18