Yen, JGB Likely Supported in Near-Term by Katayama's Remarks -- Market Talk
Japan Wants GPIF to Boost Domestic Investments
Yen Weakness, Rising JGB Yields Could Spur Global Volatility -- Market Talk
Japan’s 'Shunto' wage increases have exceeded 5% for the third consecutive year, bolstering the Bank of Japan’s case for raising interest rates.
Final data from Japan's 'Shunto' wage negotiations show that average corporate wage increases reached 5.01%, marking the first time since 1989 that wage hikes have exceeded 5% for three consecutive years. This reinforces the Bank of Japan's assessment of a virtuous cycle between wages and prices, providing critical support for continuing monetary policy normalization. Market expectations now place the probability of an interest rate hike by December at 93%.
Bit of Volatility Could Be Good for Yen -- Market Talk
The worst-case scenario for the yen has entered traders’ radar, with the 200 level shifting from 'unthinkable' to a medium-term tail risk.
The yen has fallen to a nearly 40-year low against the U.S. dollar, driven by the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, Japan's delayed monetary tightening, and its high debt burden. Institutions anticipate that, under extreme scenarios, the yen could depreciate to the 200 level. Markets view government intervention as merely a temporary speed bump, with the primary risk now being a disorderly collapse triggered by the failure of such interventions.