A cooling of safe-haven demand combined with a rebound in rate hike expectations has led to the dollar posting its worst performance in nearly a year this month.

The US dollar recorded its worst monthly performance in nearly a year in April.

Zhitong FinanceMay 1 07:00

Foreign exchange markets shrugged off the central bank's hawkish stance, with oil-exporting currencies emerging as new favorites.

In the latest developments in the global foreign exchange market, currencies of oil-exporting countries are gaining strong support from rising oil prices, becoming a highly sought-after choice for investors. Meanwhile, the resurgence of hawkish forces within the Bank of Japan has driven the USD/JPY exchange rate to continue its decline. The US Dollar Index has recently shown signs of strengthening, driven by two key factors: on one hand, the sustained rise in international oil prices has provided fundamental support for the dollar; on the other hand, the market remains skeptical about the “hawkish rhetoric” of the Federal Reserve’s competitors (such as the European Central Bank), despite these central banks signaling potential interest rate hikes soon. However, the market generally believes that amidst slowing global economic growth...

FX678 FinanceApr 28 18:59

Currencies With Fiscal Risks Look Vulnerable Due to Iran Conflict -- Market Talk

WSJMar 27 21:41

Is the surge in oil prices an 'accelerator'? Amidst the backdrop of conflict, commodity currency carry trades have seen their strongest start in three years.

The Middle East conflict has driven oil prices to multi-year highs, injecting strong momentum into foreign exchange carry trades. Carry trade strategies, such as borrowing in yen and buying currencies of oil-producing countries like the Brazilian real, have yielded returns exceeding 6% this year, marking the strongest start since 2023. Brazil's high benchmark interest rate of 15% and its advantage as an energy exporter have made it a preferred destination for capital inflows. However, institutions such as Citi have warned that the high uncertainty surrounding the conflict could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen due to risk aversion, which might quickly erode carry trade gains.

wallstreetcnMar 18 00:45

Goldman Sachs: The US dollar remains overvalued by approximately 15% in 2026, with a significant downside risk being the reevaluation of tech 'exceptionalism.'

In its 2026 foreign exchange outlook, Goldman Sachs noted that the dominance of the US dollar is experiencing a "gradual decline," but it will not collapse immediately. The downward trajectory will be driven by global growth convergence. The report specifically warned that the greatest tail risk stems from structural changes: if the belief in the "exceptionalism" of US technology stocks is shaken (such as encountering disruptive technological iterations), leading to a reversal of capital inflows, the US dollar could face a far more severe depreciation than anticipated.

wallstreetcnJan 15 20:00

Express News | The Brazilian real fell to an intraday low following reports that the United States suspended visa processing for Brazil.

BreakingsJan 14 22:11