Mexican Peso JUL7 (6M2707) News

Divergence Among Fed Officials Emerges: Barkin Supports Holding Steady, Hammack Insists on Rate Hike

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin supports holding interest rates steady, arguing that inflation stems primarily from temporary shocks, but warns that AI investment and supply chain dynamics could exert persistent price pressures. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, meanwhile, reaffirmed her stance in favor of rate hikes, cautioning against financial stability risks such as U.S. Treasury leverage and an AI bubble. With unemployment remaining low and economic data presenting a mixed picture, the Federal Reserve’s policy path for its September meeting is fraught with uncertainty.

wallstreetcnAug 13 21:30

Express News | The Bank of Mexico has set the official peso exchange rate at 17.0627 pesos per U.S. dollar.

BreakingsAug 13 03:00

U.S. core inflation in July matched its lowest level in over five years, temporarily easing the Federal Reserve's rate-hike alarm. However, are oil price volatility and wage declines brewing the next storm?

Notably, wage data released during the same period indicates that workers' real purchasing power continues to decline. Coupled with recurring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving up energy prices, the outlook for U.S. inflation remains highly uncertain.

Zhitong FinanceAug 12 22:07

Fully in line with expectations! The year-on-year increase in the U.S. CPI for July narrowed to 3.4%, while core CPI slowed to 2.5% year-on-year.

Traders maintain their bet on a 45% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

wallstreetcnAug 12 20:56

A 50-50 bet on a rate hike: Tonight at 20:30, CPI data may determine whether the Fed 'pulls the trigger' in September or continues to hold off

Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 50% probability of a rate hike in September. This means tonight’s CPI data could directly tip the balance. If the data aligns with expectations, the Federal Reserve may remain on hold; if it exceeds expectations, it could open the door to a series of consecutive rate hikes.

Golden10 DataAug 12 09:15

Express News | The Mexican peso rose against the U.S. dollar to 17.0862, its highest level since February.

BreakingsAug 12 03:22

U.S. CPI for July arrives tomorrow! JPMorgan outlines five scenarios, with the S&P 500 potentially swinging by as much as 2%.

JPMorgan's trading desk recently warned that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July, scheduled for release on Wednesday, could cause the S&P 500 index to swing by as much as 2%.

cls.cnAug 11 22:41

‘The New Fed Wire’ Issues Strong Warning: September Rate Hike Hinges on Inflation Data!

① The so-called 'New Fed Wire' stated that if the U.S. July CPI data released on Wednesday comes in mild, it would simultaneously ease the pressure on both Waller personally and the FOMC to raise interest rates—pressure stemming from their ongoing reassessment of whether they had underestimated the resilience of the U.S. economy. ② Conversely, if the data remains elevated, it could force him to demonstrate through concrete action the point he struggled last month to articulate clearly.

cls.cnAug 11 16:41

Iran stated, 'There are currently no negotiations taking place between Iran and the U.S.,' while Trump remarked that he is 'handling it quietly.'

Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that there are currently “no negotiations whatsoever” between Iran and the United States, with both sides communicating only through intermediaries. Meanwhile, Trump said he is “keeping a low profile” on the Iran issue, noting that the U.S. is engaged in “semi-negotiations” and prefers economic pressure over military escalation. Negotiations between Iran and Oman on a temporary shipping corridor have entered their final stage, but Tehran emphasized that this is unrelated to the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains contingent upon the U.S. meeting a series of stringent conditions, including troop withdrawal, compensation, and sanctions relief.

wallstreetcnAug 10 09:28

U.S. Treasury Secretary deploys 'three-pronged approach' to stabilize U.S. Treasuries: coordinated intervention in yen markets, adjusted debt issuance rhetoric, and strong endorsement of Warsh—Wall Street senses rising anxiety

Wall Street has picked up a clear signal from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s flurry of actions over the past week—that he is deploying every available tool to prevent long-term interest rates from rising further.

Zhitong FinanceAug 10 07:57

Surprise! U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in July, with previous two months' figures revised down by a total of 103,000, dampening expectations for further rate hikes.

Expected to rise by 80,000 but plunged by 23,000 instead! The latest U.S. nonfarm payroll data unexpectedly cooled significantly—has a September rate hike become nothing more than wishful thinking?

wallstreetcnAug 7 21:04

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is set for release tonight at 20:30! Could weak data fuel rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut?

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July will be released this Friday, with markets expecting an increase of 83,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. ② Recent leading indicators have been weak, and multiple institutions anticipate that July’s nonfarm payrolls will fall short of expectations; the current pattern of “low hiring, low layoffs” is significantly impacting young job seekers. ③ If labor market weakness persists, the Federal Reserve’s policy trade-off calculus could shift later this year.

cls.cnAug 7 08:57

Nonfarm payrolls arrive tonight at 20:30! Wall Street forecasts diverge: 18,000 or 80,000? Markets brace for high volatility.

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July is set to be released tonight, with Wall Street forecasts ranging widely from 18,000 to 83,000, signaling imminent market volatility. With the Federal Reserve's policy path still uncertain and risks of Japanese yen intervention looming, the cost of dollar options has quietly risen to a recent high, as investors brace for potential surprises.

Golden10 DataAug 7 08:49

After Trump threatened a 'fierce strike,' Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened immediately.

Iran stated that its talks with Oman concerned only coordination on vessel passage and were unrelated to the United States, adding that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still hinges on the U.S. rectifying its 'violations.' Earlier, Trump claimed the strait would be opened 'very soon,' warning that Iran would otherwise face 'fierce strikes.'

wallstreetcnAug 5 19:30

U.S. Treasury Secretary Backs Waller: No Need to Raise Rates Now; Reduced Forward Guidance Requires a 'Detox Period'!

① U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that interest rate hikes are unnecessary and defended Fed Chair Volcker, saying it was prudent for him to avoid offering forward guidance; ② Volcker did not outline a specific path to achieving the 2% inflation target, leading markets to question the credibility of his commitment, with rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields signaling diminished confidence in the Federal Reserve.

cls.cnAug 5 11:05

U.S.-Japan Joint Intervention: A New 'Plaza Accord,' the Dawn of Bretton Woods II, and the End of the Yen Carry Trade Era

The United States and Japan have launched an unprecedented joint intervention in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, driving the yen’s exchange rate up sharply from a near 40-year low to 157.40 within two days. As Japan is forced to sell U.S. Treasury securities to defend its currency, and as major technology firms shift from being providers of savings to consumers of credit, the decades-old yen carry trade logic underpinning the global financial system is collapsing—ushering in a transformative realignment of the global macroeconomic architecture.

wallstreetcnAug 3 08:20

U.S. June PCE monthly rate unexpectedly turned negative! Q2 GDP growth slowed—but is there more than meets the eye?

On the surface, the annualized growth rate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter slowed to 1.5%, but the reality beneath is quite different. Additionally, the U.S. PCE price index recorded its first monthly decline since 2020 in June...

Golden10 DataJul 30 21:07

The Federal Reserve's decision arrives tonight at 2:00 a.m.! Wall Street is closely watching these four key points...

① Will there be a rate hike tonight? ② How many votes will favor a rate hike? ③ How will the Fed’s statement be revised? ④ What will Waller say?

cls.cnJul 29 17:59

The most uncertain one in years! Will the Federal Reserve deliver a 'scare' at 2:00 a.m. tonight?

The Federal Reserve is highly likely to hold rates steady tonight, but this could be the most turbulent 'pause' in recent years. Money markets are pricing in a 32% probability of a rate hike, and UBS Group economists have explicitly stated that uncertainty is at its highest level in two decades. Internal hawkish divisions are widening, Kevin Warsh's policy stance remains enigmatic, and institutions such as Citadel have already taken clear positions betting on a surprise rate increase. JPMorgan estimates that if the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points, the S&P 500 could plunge by more than 2%—tonight, even 'no change' itself could trigger market turbulence.

wallstreetcnJul 29 17:37

Bank of America: August Could Mark the Start of the 'Most Challenging Three Months' for U.S. Equities, Creating Opportunities for the U.S. Dollar and Gold

According to a Bank of America report, historical data indicates that August through October is historically the weakest period for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 posting an average return close to zero; defensive assets such as the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and gold typically perform strongly during this window, while energy assets may also gain strength against the broader market trend. Although the risk of a late-summer pullback intensifies, it is expected to pave the way for a robust rally beginning in November.

wallstreetcnJul 27 18:41