Major Bank Ratings | Morgan Stanley: Gives an 'attractive' rating to China's financial sector, favoring H shares of the four major state-owned banks.
Gelonghui, May 11 | Morgan Stanley published a research report stating that it has assigned an "attractive" rating to China's financial sector, with Ningbo Bank as its top pick. It also favors the H-shares of the four major state-owned banks and China CITIC Bank. The firm noted that loan pricing stabilized in the first quarter, with net interest margins rebounding quarter-over-quarter for most of the banks covered. Additionally, industrial credit risks are declining faster than expected, both of which are positive signs.
Where did the 'deposit migration' go in the first quarter? The outflows were diversified, with 1.5 trillion yuan flowing into life insurance.
①In the first quarter of 2026, household deposits decreased by 1.5 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 2 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating the presence of the “deposit migration” phenomenon. ②The short-term scale of migration remains relatively small, with a high retention rate of bank deposits, primarily due to low risk appetite among customer groups, innovative banking products, and the impact of peak loan disbursement periods. ③The flow of funds shows a diversified pattern rather than concentrating in a single area, and some directions do not fall within the standardized asset management sector.
Have deposits moved? The proportion of time deposits at multiple banks continues to rise, with industry insiders noting that the movement is mostly between different banks.
①According to the latest first-quarter reports of listed banks and statistics from the central bank, the proportion of term deposits at multiple banks has reached a new high. ②Several banking professionals have also indicated to reporters that, based on the current situation, no large-scale 'deposit migration' within the banking system has occurred. 'At most, there is some movement of deposits between banks of different natures.'
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Banks' proprietary fund allocation hits the brakes! Industry to shrink by a trillion yuan in 2025, with joint-stock banks and city commercial banks leading the decline.
① In 2025, proprietary funds from banks accelerated their withdrawal from public mutual funds, with banks reducing their allocation to public funds by approximately RMB 460 billion to RMB 7.35 trillion for the year. ② State-owned large banks expanded their overall holdings of funds, while joint-stock banks demonstrated mixed performance in fund investments. City commercial banks showed an overall contraction in fund investments, although the scale of contraction for individual banks was relatively small. ③ Reasons for banks reducing their allocation to public funds include a relatively higher management fee cost amid a low-interest-rate environment.