Why hasn’t oil surged parabolically amid supply shocks? Morgan Stanley: The answer lies with these two major countries!
① Since the outbreak of the Iran war, despite high oil prices, there has been no parabolic surge so far, which would have triggered a global energy crisis; ② Morgan Stanley strategists stated that structural support from the United States and China helps stabilize oil prices, preventing them from spiking to the worst-case forecast levels.
OPEC+ plans to continue increasing crude oil production quotas, but geopolitical conflicts hinder the implementation of production increases.
This round of production increase remains a policy on paper, with actual implementation facing practical obstacles.
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OPEC cuts this year's oil demand forecast, but supply disruptions push Brent crude near $106.
The International Energy Agency issued a warning about impending greater volatility, while OPEC lowered its demand forecast for this year, leading to a rise in oil prices.
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