CUS Futures (SEP6) (CUSMAIN) News

U.S. core inflation in July matched its lowest level in over five years, temporarily easing the Federal Reserve's rate-hike alarm. However, are oil price volatility and wage declines brewing the next storm?

Notably, wage data released during the same period indicates that workers' real purchasing power continues to decline. Coupled with recurring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving up energy prices, the outlook for U.S. inflation remains highly uncertain.

Zhitong FinanceAug 12 22:07

Fully in line with expectations! The year-on-year increase in the U.S. CPI for July narrowed to 3.4%, while core CPI slowed to 2.5% year-on-year.

Traders maintain their bet on a 45% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

wallstreetcnAug 12 20:56

A 50-50 bet on a rate hike: Tonight at 20:30, CPI data may determine whether the Fed 'pulls the trigger' in September or continues to hold off

Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 50% probability of a rate hike in September. This means tonight’s CPI data could directly tip the balance. If the data aligns with expectations, the Federal Reserve may remain on hold; if it exceeds expectations, it could open the door to a series of consecutive rate hikes.

Golden10 DataAug 12 09:15

U.S. CPI for July arrives tomorrow! JPMorgan outlines five scenarios, with the S&P 500 potentially swinging by as much as 2%.

JPMorgan's trading desk recently warned that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July, scheduled for release on Wednesday, could cause the S&P 500 index to swing by as much as 2%.

cls.cnAug 11 22:41

‘The New Fed Wire’ Issues Strong Warning: September Rate Hike Hinges on Inflation Data!

① The so-called 'New Fed Wire' stated that if the U.S. July CPI data released on Wednesday comes in mild, it would simultaneously ease the pressure on both Waller personally and the FOMC to raise interest rates—pressure stemming from their ongoing reassessment of whether they had underestimated the resilience of the U.S. economy. ② Conversely, if the data remains elevated, it could force him to demonstrate through concrete action the point he struggled last month to articulate clearly.

cls.cnAug 11 16:41

Iran stated, 'There are currently no negotiations taking place between Iran and the U.S.,' while Trump remarked that he is 'handling it quietly.'

Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that there are currently “no negotiations whatsoever” between Iran and the United States, with both sides communicating only through intermediaries. Meanwhile, Trump said he is “keeping a low profile” on the Iran issue, noting that the U.S. is engaged in “semi-negotiations” and prefers economic pressure over military escalation. Negotiations between Iran and Oman on a temporary shipping corridor have entered their final stage, but Tehran emphasized that this is unrelated to the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains contingent upon the U.S. meeting a series of stringent conditions, including troop withdrawal, compensation, and sanctions relief.

wallstreetcnAug 10 09:28

U.S. Treasury Secretary deploys 'three-pronged approach' to stabilize U.S. Treasuries: coordinated intervention in yen markets, adjusted debt issuance rhetoric, and strong endorsement of Warsh—Wall Street senses rising anxiety

Wall Street has picked up a clear signal from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s flurry of actions over the past week—that he is deploying every available tool to prevent long-term interest rates from rising further.

Zhitong FinanceAug 10 07:57

Express News | Offshore renminbi rose 47 pips against the U.S. dollar from Thursday's New York close.

At the New York close on Friday (August 7) — which was 04:59 Beijing time on Saturday — the offshore renminbi (CNH) traded at 6.7429 per U.S. dollar, up 47 pips from Thursday’s New York close, with intraday trading ranging between 6.7500 and 6.7401.

BreakingsAug 8 05:15

Surprise! U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in July, with previous two months' figures revised down by a total of 103,000, dampening expectations for further rate hikes.

Expected to rise by 80,000 but plunged by 23,000 instead! The latest U.S. nonfarm payroll data unexpectedly cooled significantly—has a September rate hike become nothing more than wishful thinking?

wallstreetcnAug 7 21:04

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is set for release tonight at 20:30! Could weak data fuel rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut?

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July will be released this Friday, with markets expecting an increase of 83,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. ② Recent leading indicators have been weak, and multiple institutions anticipate that July’s nonfarm payrolls will fall short of expectations; the current pattern of “low hiring, low layoffs” is significantly impacting young job seekers. ③ If labor market weakness persists, the Federal Reserve’s policy trade-off calculus could shift later this year.

cls.cnAug 7 08:57

Nonfarm payrolls arrive tonight at 20:30! Wall Street forecasts diverge: 18,000 or 80,000? Markets brace for high volatility.

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July is set to be released tonight, with Wall Street forecasts ranging widely from 18,000 to 83,000, signaling imminent market volatility. With the Federal Reserve's policy path still uncertain and risks of Japanese yen intervention looming, the cost of dollar options has quietly risen to a recent high, as investors brace for potential surprises.

Golden10 DataAug 7 08:49

Express News | The offshore renminbi rose by 6 pips against the US dollar compared to Wednesday's New York close.

On Thursday, August 7 (New York close on Wednesday, August 6, at 04:59 Beijing time Friday), the offshore renminbi (CNH) traded at 6.7476 per US dollar, up 6 pips from Wednesday's New York close, with intraday trading ranging between 6.7455 and 6.7519.

BreakingsAug 7 05:58

Express News | The offshore renminbi fell by 2 pips against the U.S. dollar compared to Tuesday's New York close.

On Wednesday, August 6 (New York close on Tuesday, August 5, at 04:59 Beijing time Thursday), the offshore renminbi (CNH) traded at 6.7482 per U.S. dollar, down 2 pips from Tuesday's New York close, with intraday trading ranging between 6.7449 and 6.7501.

BreakingsAug 6 06:10

After Trump threatened a 'fierce strike,' Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened immediately.

Iran stated that its talks with Oman concerned only coordination on vessel passage and were unrelated to the United States, adding that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still hinges on the U.S. rectifying its 'violations.' Earlier, Trump claimed the strait would be opened 'very soon,' warning that Iran would otherwise face 'fierce strikes.'

wallstreetcnAug 5 19:30

U.S. Treasury Secretary Backs Waller: No Need to Raise Rates Now; Reduced Forward Guidance Requires a 'Detox Period'!

① U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that interest rate hikes are unnecessary and defended Fed Chair Volcker, saying it was prudent for him to avoid offering forward guidance; ② Volcker did not outline a specific path to achieving the 2% inflation target, leading markets to question the credibility of his commitment, with rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields signaling diminished confidence in the Federal Reserve.

cls.cnAug 5 11:05

Express News | The offshore renminbi rose by 101 pips against the US dollar compared to Monday's New York close.

At the New York close on Tuesday, August 4 (04:59 Beijing time on Wednesday), the offshore renminbi (CNH) stood at 6.7480 per US dollar—matching its final level of 6.7480 on July 30—and was up 101 pips from Monday's New York close, trading within a range of 6.7599–6.7458 during the session.

BreakingsAug 5 05:11

Express News | Offshore renminbi fell 57 pips against the U.S. dollar from last Friday's New York close.

At the New York close on Monday (August 3) — 04:59 Beijing time Tuesday — the offshore renminbi (CNH) traded at 6.7581 per U.S. dollar, down 57 pips from last Friday’s New York close, with intraday trading ranging between 6.7461 and 6.7593.

BreakingsAug 4 05:06

U.S.-Japan Joint Intervention: A New 'Plaza Accord,' the Dawn of Bretton Woods II, and the End of the Yen Carry Trade Era

The United States and Japan have launched an unprecedented joint intervention in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, driving the yen’s exchange rate up sharply from a near 40-year low to 157.40 within two days. As Japan is forced to sell U.S. Treasury securities to defend its currency, and as major technology firms shift from being providers of savings to consumers of credit, the decades-old yen carry trade logic underpinning the global financial system is collapsing—ushering in a transformative realignment of the global macroeconomic architecture.

wallstreetcnAug 3 08:20

Express News | Offshore renminbi fell 44 pips against the US dollar compared to Thursday's New York close.

At the New York close on Friday (July 31) (04:59 Beijing time Saturday), offshore renminbi (CNH) traded at 6.7524 per US dollar, down 44 pips from Thursday's New York close, with intraday trading ranging between 6.7423 and 6.7553.

BreakingsAug 1 05:17

Express News | Offshore renminbi strengthened by 125 pips against the US dollar compared to Wednesday's New York close.

At the New York close on Thursday (July 30) (04:59 Beijing time Friday), offshore renminbi (CNH) traded at 6.7480 per US dollar, up 125 pips from Wednesday's New York close, with the day's trading range between 6.7626 and 6.7440.

BreakingsJul 31 05:21