Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran could trigger an unpredictable and reckless escalation.
Trump believed that a 48-hour ultimatum would force Iran to yield, but the commanders of the Revolutionary Guard are those who have proven through eight years of bloody warfare that they cannot be intimidated. The more Trump threatens, the less likely they are to relinquish their key leverage. If the energy conflict escalates, analysts warn: the Bushehr nuclear power plant must not be included in any strike range.
Goldman Sachs macro traders warn: Central banks have missed the opportunity to stabilize the markets, 'Energy is driving everything.'
Iran's attack on the world's largest LNG facility will leave a supply gap that is unlikely to be bridged within three to five years; far from stabilizing the market, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England have further tightened the link between interest rates and energy prices through their hawkish stances.
Change in tone again! Trump gives Iran a 48-hour deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to destroy its power plants.
Trump posted on the social platform 'Truth Social,' demanding that Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or the United States would strike and destroy various power plants within Iran. 'The largest one will be the first target.'
Iran: Supreme Leader May Be Elected Today! Trump Again Stated: Hopes to Participate in the Selection of Iran's Next Leader
According to reports from the Xinhua News Agency, a member of Iran's Assembly of Experts stated that the meeting to elect Iran’s Supreme Leader will be held within the next 24 hours. Trump once again baselessly claimed his desire to participate in the selection of Iran’s next leader, stating that he does not wish for the United States to “face the same issue every five or ten years.”
Middle East Crude Oil 'Production Halts': UAE and Kuwait Announce Production Cuts
The UAE announced an adjustment to its offshore production levels to address storage requirements. Kuwait’s production cut is expected to increase from 100,000 barrels per day on Saturday to 300,000 barrels per day on Sunday. The wave of production cuts by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries has pushed Brent crude prices to a two-year high, surpassing $93 per barrel. Trump stated on Saturday that oil prices would quickly fall back.
Learning from History: In the Context of Middle East Conflicts, U.S. Stock Investors May Stand a Better Chance by Staying Put?
A study shows that the S&P 500 Index rose by an average of 12.5% one year after the U.S. initiated military actions, higher than its annualized return rate of 9%.