Week Ahead | Waller’s Congressional Debut Coincides with June CPI! Q2 Earnings Season Kicks Off for Wall Street’s Big Five; Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML Holding Test AI Demand; U.S.-Iran 'Fight-and-Talk' Dynamics Stir Oil Prices

Next week, Hong Kong and U.S. equities will face a confluence of macroeconomic data releases, earnings reports, and key technology events. Waller will testify before Congress for the first time as Federal Reserve Chair, coinciding with the release of U.S. CPI and PPI data, potentially prompting a repricing of interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations amid military tensions continue to influence oil prices. Earnings season intensifies with results from Wall Street’s five major banks, while Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML will serve as barometers of AI demand. Jensen Huang is set to appear in Tokyo, and rumors suggest the imminent launch of Gemini 3.5 Pro. In Hong Kong markets, attention turns to China’s economic data releases, the expiration of share lock-ups for GigaDevice, and technology-driven catalysts from the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC).

Futu NewsJul 12 15:46

Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as U.S. forces stated they were launching strikes against Iran and explosions were heard in multiple Iranian locations.

On July 12, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prohibiting all vessel traffic until the United States ceases its intervention. The U.S. military declared it would strike Iran in response to attacks on civilian vessels in the strait. Explosions were subsequently reported in southern Iran, including in Bushehr, Asaluyeh, Qeshm Island, and Chabahar Port. The IRGC warned that if the U.S. uses this as a pretext for new attacks, Iran will respond forcefully and target additional U.S. bases in the Middle East.

wallstreetcnJul 12 09:05

S&P 500 Index Forms Highly Bullish Pattern as Analysts Warn of Earnings Bubble

Benzinga03:31

CITIC Securities: Short squeeze and pair trading emerge simultaneously in Hong Kong equities; U.S. equities regain momentum in AI-driven trades.

This week, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng stated that China's foreign exchange reserves will continue to increase their asset allocation in Hong Kong, driving a second consecutive week of strong rebounds in the Hang Seng Index.

Zhitong FinanceJul 12 19:44

GF Securities: How should we view the recent tech stock correction?

How should we view the magnitude and duration of the current adjustment in the AI sector? This article offers further discussion.

Zhitong FinanceJul 12 16:28

Earnings Season, Worshe and U.S. Inflation – Where Are the Fed and Markets Headed? Hints Emerge Next Week!

Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is set to appear at his first congressional hearing, coinciding with the密集 release of U.S. June inflation data—a confluence that will put market bets on a July rate hike to a critical test. On Tuesday next week, Warsh’s hearing will be held before the House Financial Services Committee, with the U.S. June CPI data scheduled for release earlier that same day. On Wednesday, shortly after the U.S. PPI data is published, Warsh will testify again, this time before the Senate. According to a Bloomberg Economics survey, markets currently price in only a 24% implied probability of a July rate hike; for this figure to rise significantly, both 'a hotter-than-expected CPI print' and 'clearly hawkish remarks from Warsh' would be required.

wallstreetcnJul 12 09:36