A five-year low! US core CPI annual rate came in below expectations, with the probability of a rate cut by June now rising to 80%.
The latest CPI report shows a significant easing of inflationary pressures, with the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds falling below 3.40% as a result. A plunge in energy prices and a cooling of housing inflation have led markets to bet that the probability of an interest rate cut before June exceeds 80%.
Express News | Trump confirmed that the US military will deploy a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East.
How does Wall Street view the January CPI? Concerns over inflation have temporarily eased, with the likelihood of three rate cuts this year rising to 50%.
As companies often raise prices at the beginning of the year, the CPI tends to rise in January. However, the growth rate of core CPI in January this year hit a near five-year low. Despite continued increases in housing prices and signs of tariff impacts on consumer goods such as clothing and computers, prices in politically sensitive categories like gasoline, beef, and eggs fell. Disinflationary pressures are expected to dominate in the coming months. Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve's path to 'normalization' through interest rate cuts depends on whether employment continues to improve. They still anticipate two rate cuts this year, with the first in June. Traders expect the CPI to peak by mid-year before retreating, consistent with expectations of the first rate cut in June or July.
In line with UBS Group and JPMorgan's bullish stance! ANZ Bank hails gold price pullback as an excellent entry opportunity: Q2 target price revised upward to $5,800.
ANZ Bank stated that this pullback in gold prices may attract new investment, with prices expected to reach USD 5,800 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026.
How China's 'Unruly' Speculators Might Be Fueling the Frenzy in Gold Market
Gold prices remained stable during the early Asian trading session, with a potential for a technical rebound.
Gelonghui, February 13 | Gold prices remained stable in the Asian morning session but may see a technical rebound after the settlement price of near-month gold futures fell by 2.9% on Thursday. Spot gold prices were essentially flat, trading at $4,922.33 per ounce. Nikos Tzabouras, Senior Market Analyst at Tradu.com, stated in an email that the precious metal has been under pressure following a strong US employment report, which raised the threshold for the Federal Reserve to further ease monetary policy. However, the senior market analyst noted that the bullish outlook for gold remains unchanged, with the path still open for it to reach new record highs.
AI turbulence impacts metal markets; did the sharp drop in U.S. stocks trigger algorithmic trading sell-offs in precious metals?
On Thursday, spot gold fell by 4.1% at one point, and silver plummeted by 11%. Amid renewed concerns about whether massive AI investments can truly be implemented on a large scale, U.S. technology stocks experienced significant declines. Analysts stated that metal prices suddenly dropped under what appeared to be algorithmic trading sell-offs, forcing some investors to exit positions in commodities, including gold and silver, to secure liquidity.
A sharp rise in de-risking sentiment has led to a liquidity squeeze, causing precious metals to be hit by algorithmic trading.
A sudden 'risk-off' sentiment swept through global financial markets, triggering a sell-off in precious metals.
Express News | Trump: The U.S. "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious".
Express News | Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Trump may be creating conditions for reaching an agreement with Iran.
Express News | According to the AXIOS website, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Trump may reach a favorable agreement with Iran.
Express News | Spot gold prices plummeted in the short term, analysts say the reasons are unclear.
Gold Outlook Analysis: Risks of a 'Dead Cat Bounce' in the High-Price Zone Continue to Escalate
Currently, as international gold prices approach historical highs, upward momentum is gradually weakening, with trading volumes showing a sustained contraction. At the same time, the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates that large-scale long-position liquidations have already occurred in the market ahead of the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This suggests that the risk of a pullback in gold prices at higher levels is steadily increasing. From a recent trend perspective, the rebound in gold prices initiated near the 4700-point level has performed notably well, with significant cumulative gains. However, it is important to remain cautious, as
Trump tariffs face strongest political backlash! Calls for rate cuts may fuel dollar sell-off at highs, while the Chinese Lunar New Year may weigh on gold.
Following another trading day dominated by 'artificial intelligence anxiety' on Wednesday, global equities and U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Thursday (February 12). Driven by a series of robust corporate earnings reports, European stocks advanced, while U.S. stock index futures also signaled an anticipated rise on Wall Street.
Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data not a concern? Hedge fund heavyweight: The Fed will cut rates more than twice this year, bullish on gold!
①David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital, predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more times than the expected two this year, as he believes Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for Fed Chair, can convince the committee to implement significant rate cuts; ②Einhorn is bullish on gold, stating that it has become a reserve asset for central banks and that the instability of U.S. trade policy is prompting other countries to seek trade settlements in currencies other than the dollar, thereby driving up gold prices.
Express News | U.S. media: The United States has instructed a second aircraft carrier to prepare for deployment to the Middle East.
Express News | Trump: Calls for Continued Negotiations with Iran, No Other Decisions Made with Netanyahu
Goldman Sachs: Commodities Enter a "High Volatility Era" Due to Hoarding
①Goldman Sachs pointed out that the rise in gold prices is part of a shift in how governments and investors approach commodities, with central bank purchases aimed at hedging risks driving the surge in gold prices; ②Analysts stated that the annual new supply of gold is relatively stable and reacts slowly to price changes. This means that demand driven by risk concerns can sustainably push gold prices higher over a longer period.
Express News | Following the release of non-farm payroll data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in March rose to 94.1%.
Gold and Silver Are Rallying Again Ahead of Payrolls Report