U.S. June PPI cooled more than expected, signaling a temporary easing of inflationary pressures.
Driven by a sharp decline in energy prices, U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell by 0.3% month-over-month in June, marking the first drop in nearly a year. Although the notable easing of wholesale inflationary pressures has provided the Federal Reserve with some breathing room, recurring tensions in the Middle East continue to introduce uncertainty into the inflation outlook.
Iran Can Afford to Wait, Trump Cannot: A Strait of Hormuz Endurance Contest Under the Shadow of Midterm Elections
The extraordinary significance of this round of conflict lies in its potential to determine who controls the Strait of Hormuz.
Express News | Wass: Whether AI Leads to Inflation Depends on the Federal Reserve
Waller follows in Powell’s footsteps—will his long-anticipated clash with Trump finally arrive?
Wash will appear before the Senate Banking Committee hearing at 22:00 Beijing time on Wednesday.
Express News | US June PPI YoY +5.5% Vs +6.2% Forecast, Prior +6.5%
The U.S. military stated it carried out a 90-minute strike against Iran.
On the 15th, U.S. Central Command posted a statement on social media announcing that U.S. forces completed a 'morning strike' against Iran at 7:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the 15th (7:30 p.m. Beijing Time).
Gold Futures Fall 0.8% to $4,036.3/Oz, Silver Futures Decline 0.9% to $58.59/Oz Early Wednesday as US-Iran Fight to Control Hormuz
Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran? Trump reportedly held a meeting in the White House Situation Room to discuss a 'devastating strike' against Iran.
Latest reports indicate that the United States may launch a larger-scale strike against Iran next.
The third policy reversal in five months—back to confrontation after failed talks—can Trump this time break the Strait of Hormuz impasse?
The analysis points out that both sides are engaged in a game of leverage—Iran controls the Strait, while the United States is wary of rising oil prices and domestic political backlash. Each side is betting the other will buckle first, suggesting the 'war of attrition' could become protracted.
24-Hour Reversal! Trump Abandons Strait Toll Plan, Reinstates Blockade, and Threatens to 'Destroy Iranian Power Plants and Bridges'
Trump’s proposal to impose a 20% fee on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz lasted only 24 hours. Facing collective phone calls and pressure from Gulf allies, he urgently withdrew the plan on Tuesday, stating it would be replaced with ‘investment in the U.S.’ On the same day, the U.S. announced the reinstatement of its blockade on Iranian ports and launched a new round of airstrikes. Trump threatened to ‘destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges next week,’ but indicated that strikes on energy infrastructure would be ‘saved for last.’
Materials Up as Traders Hedge on Inflation Views -- Materials Roundup
Waller’s monetary policy hearing debut: Will act based on data even amid Trump’s criticism; June CPI cooldown does not mean the inflation 'mission is accomplished'
Wasserman reiterated that inflation is a choice, stating the Federal Reserve has the tools to achieve price stability and will not shift blame; if pressured by Trump, he would fulfill his duties; he pledged to break 'sticky prices'; he suggested that the low-rate policies of the 1990s—implemented during a productivity boom—should not be mechanically applied to today’s AI investment surge; he emphasized the Fed’s dual mandate of employment and inflation and affirmed it would not venture into other areas, adding that sufficient warning would precede any balance sheet adjustments; five Fed working groups are currently in a 'fact-finding phase' and will first share their insights with policymakers; the Fed will discuss reducing the frequency of public statements, clarifying that communication adjustments aim to ensure sound monetary policy—not to reduce transparency; the Fed should not arbitrarily intervene in markets, though using its balance sheet during crises is an exception. Dubbed the 'new Fed wire,' Wasser
June CPI Report Doesn't Mean 'Mission Accomplished,' Says Warsh
Waller's Congressional Debut Clashes with Surprising CPI Data! 'Zero-Tolerance' Testimony Undermined by Unexpected Figures, Immediately Easing Rate Hike Pressure
Wash stated that Federal Reserve policymakers have 'zero tolerance' for high inflation and reiterated their commitment to curbing price growth, which has remained elevated for five years.
Full Text of Wallsh's Testimony: Committed to Ending the Era of High Inflation, Will Closely Monitor the Impact of AI
This week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress for the first time on the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, appearing before the House Committee on Financial Services on July 14 and the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on July 15.
Inflation cools broadly! U.S. CPI rose 3.5% year-over-year in June, significantly below expectations, and declined month-over-month for the first time in six years, while core CPI inflation narrowed to 2.6%.
U.S. inflation has shown a significant turning point. The June CPI recorded its first month-over-month decline in six years, while core inflation remained largely flat, prompting markets to sharply reduce bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in July.
Full Text of the U.S. June CPI Report: U.S. inflation continued to ease in June, with the CPI declining by 0.4% month-over-month—the largest single-month drop since April 2020.
U.S. inflation continued to ease in June. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.4% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month drop since April 2020, while the year-over-year increase moderated to 3.5%. Energy prices plummeted by 5.7% month-over-month, with gasoline prices falling by 9.7%—the decisive factor pulling down overall inflation. Below is the full CPI report.
Express News | US Jun. CPI YoY +3.5% Vs +3.8% Forecast, Prior +4.2%
“Super Inflation Day”: CPI Data and Waller’s Testimony—The Fed’s Next Move May Be Revealed Tonight
Declining energy prices are expected to help ease the overall U.S. CPI, but services prices—particularly in healthcare and insurance—remain elevated, making whether core inflation will again approach 3% the key focus. That evening, the latest remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Waller could further amplify market volatility.
U.S. forces resume blockade against Iran; Trump warns of 'heavy strikes' tonight or tomorrow and imposes a 20% fee on Strait shipping.
Iranian media reported that Iran shot down a U.S. military drone over the Strait; explosions were heard from Larak Island, located in the Strait, and from Bandar Abbas in southern Iran. Trump stated that U.S. fees on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz are intended to offset necessary expenditures for maintaining regional security, and that the relevant procedures and deployments would commence immediately. The U.S. military will impose a naval blockade on Iran starting at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the 14th. It was reported that Trump has notified Congress of the renewed outbreak of hostilities with Iran. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) opposes levying tolls on straits used for international navigation. Iran’s Foreign Minister described the U.S.-proposed fee rate as “excessive.”