CITIC Securities: Supply disruptions in copper mines re-emerge, with annual production forecasts officially entering a decline.

As Freeport once again postponed the resumption of its Indonesia project and comprehensively lowered its production guidance for 2026-27, global major copper mining enterprises’ production expectations for 2026 have officially entered a decline. Additionally, the potential impact of subsequent extreme weather may lead to an expansion of supply disruptions. CITIC Securities anticipates that the recent unexpected destocking in China, reflecting robust supply-demand logic, along with easing macroeconomic pressures, will drive copper prices to stabilize above USD 13,000 per ton in Q2 2026. Amid expectations of a supply-demand imbalance, copper prices are likely to test previous highs. CITIC Securities highlights the investment opportunity in the copper sector driven by the synergy of profit elasticity and valuation upside. Copper supply disruptions re-emerge, leading to a formal reduction in annual production forecasts.

CITIC Securities ResearchMay 12 10:49

Energy shortages are impacting Peru's mining industry, posing a substantial risk of contraction in the global marginal supply of copper and silver.

As one of the world's top three producers and exporters of copper and silver, Peru accounts for more than 10% of global copper and silver production. The sudden imposition of policies has created dual constraints on energy and electricity in mining and ore processing operations within the country, leading to a decline in the operational rates of major global copper and silver mining projects, with marginal supply facing substantial contraction risks. According to Gu Fengda, silver is the precious metal most directly impacted by the events in Peru. Silver production in the country is largely a byproduct of copper mining, meaning that energy shortages will simultaneously affect both copper and silver output. Currently, the silver market is already in a tight balance between supply and demand, compounded by low exchange inventories, so any disruptions on the supply side will be significantly magnified.

Global Market NewsMay 12 09:01

Unfazed by the Middle East situation, tight supply and demand push London copper to a record high.

LME copper closed 2.7% higher at $13,943 per ton on Monday, setting a new record for the highest closing price in history. Investors showed limited concern over escalating tensions in the Middle East. Analysts pointed out that increased industrial demand and tight supply were the main driving factors.

wallstreetcnMay 12 06:34

Express News | Bloomberg: Freeport Indonesia postpones full restart of Grasberg copper mine by one year

BreakingsMay 8 14:36

Materials Up on Peace-Talk Hopes - Materials Roundup

Dow JonesApr 16 05:11

The Hormuz crisis reshapes the pricing logic of metals! Stagflation clouds weigh on copper prices, while the aluminum market experiences supply panic.

In this round of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the smelting and logistics chains in the region have been directly impacted. The Middle East accounts for approximately 10% of global primary aluminum production.

Zhitong FinanceApr 13 12:02