Why hasn’t oil surged parabolically amid supply shocks? Morgan Stanley: The answer lies with these two major countries!

① Since the outbreak of the Iran war, despite high oil prices, there has been no parabolic surge so far, which would have triggered a global energy crisis; ② Morgan Stanley strategists stated that structural support from the United States and China helps stabilize oil prices, preventing them from spiking to the worst-case forecast levels.

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Express News | Bank of Japan Policy Board member Masayoshi Amamiya stated that the rise in fuel prices may be only a temporary shock, but what is concerning is that it could further accelerate Japan's mounting distribution costs.

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Express News | Cuban officials stated that the country has run out of diesel and fuel.

Breakings09:11

Saudi Arabia's crude oil production has reportedly fallen to a 36-year low, marking the worst record since the Gulf War.

① Saudi Arabia's crude oil daily production in April fell to 6.316 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, marking a cumulative decline of 42% since February. ② The United Arab Emirates plans to leave OPEC in May, ending approximately 60 years of membership, due to factors including disagreements with Saudi Arabia over production quotas and regional political differences.

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Rising Oil Prices and U.S. Bond Yields Heat Up 'NACHO Trade'

As the ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran have fallen into a deep deadlock, a new trading narrative is rapidly taking shape on Wall Street—"NACHO" (the Narrowing Assumption that the Channel will Hold Open). Markets are increasingly treating the blockade of the Strait as a 'normalized feature' of the macro environment, an expectation that is driving the continued diffusion of a set of combined trading strategies: going long on crude oil, shorting long-dated U.S. Treasuries, and increasing holdings in inflation-protected assets.

wallstreetcnMay 13 09:22

Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, while Iraq and Pakistan have both secured agreements for energy navigation.

Iraq and Pakistan have separately reached confidential agreements with Iran, securing permission for oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple countries are currently in line to negotiate transit rights.

Golden10 DataMay 13 08:40