OCBC Bank: The near-term upside potential for Asian currencies is likely to be constrained by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.
Gelonghui, June 18 | Strategists at OCBC Bank’s Group Research Department stated that, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, Asian currencies may face limited upside potential against the U.S. dollar in the near term—particularly low-yielding currencies and those more sensitive to U.S. Treasury movements, including the Thai baht, Korean won, and to some extent, the Singapore dollar. However, they added that falling oil prices remain a significant offsetting factor, easing current account and inflationary pressures on currencies of oil-importing countries such as the Indian rupee, Philippine peso, and Indonesian rupiah.
India plans to abolish capital gains tax on foreign-held government bonds to stabilize the local currency exchange rate.
According to informed sources, the Indian government plans to eliminate the capital gains tax on investments in Indian government bonds by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), aiming to further attract overseas capital inflows and alleviate depreciation pressure on the domestic currency. Affected by elevated international crude oil prices and global equity market capital outflows, the Indian rupee has depreciated by more than 5% against the U.S. dollar so far this year. To address the persistent downward pressure on the rupee, the Indian government is actively implementing measures to draw foreign investment into the bond market. Currently, foreign investors are subject to a 12.5% long-term capital gains tax on investments in listed Indian equities and bonds held for over one year. The aforementioned sources indicated
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