Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk
Screwworm Finding Drives Cattle Market Higher -- WSJ
COT Positioning Report: USD Long Positions Strengthen Further, Commodities Broadly Weaken
The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report shows the positions held by large speculators and asset management firms in the CME Group futures markets and serves as a sentiment indicator for market analysis. Below is the COT positioning data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as of Tuesday, May 26. There is a three-day lag between the report’s release date and the actual trader positions it records—the report is published on Fridays but includes data only through the preceding Tuesday. In terms of timeliness, it is more suitable for long-term traders. The latest COT data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals a markedly divergent overall market structure: the U.S. dollar
Cargill Dispute With Beef Plant Union Weighs on Cattle Futures -- WSJ
Trump Plans to Sign Executive Order to Expand Beef Imports in Effort to Combat Food Inflation
① U.S. President Trump will sign an executive order on Monday to allow increased beef imports and support the expansion of the U.S. cattle herd in order to alleviate high beef prices; ② The executive order includes measures such as suspending the beef tariff-rate quota system, increasing loans and financing support for ranchers, and reducing protections for gray wolves and Mexican wolves.
Cattle Drops Following WSJ Report on Beef Imports -- Market Talk
Cattle Lower Amid Uncertainty in Packing Industry -- Market Talk
Cattle Futures Rise as Markets Hope for U.S.-Iran Peace Deal -- Market Talk
Materials Up as Dollar Slips in the Wake of Inflation Data -- Materials Roundup
Livestock Mixed After USDA Cuts Production Outlook -- Market Talk
Hogs Follow Cutout Prices Lower -- Market Talk
Middle East Conflict Creates Fuel, Fertilizer Pressures in Australia, Rabobank Says
If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, will a fiercer agricultural commodities bull market than in 2022 emerge?
When the global energy hub falls into paralysis, a systemic inflation driven by the trinity of 'gas prices-fertilizer prices-grain prices' is lurking within the lagging pricing logic of the agricultural products market. According to information from the WindChaser Trading Platform, on March 17, Bank of America issued a global agricultural strategy report pointing out that as tensions with Iran escalated, the Strait of Hormuz had 'effectively ceased commercial traffic' in early March, with multiple vessel attacks occurring in the region. The importance of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be overstated. Approximately one-fifth of the world's oil transportation relies on this waterway. This conflict has caused a supply disruption exceeding 20 million barrels per day, marking the largest scale disruption in recent decades.
Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk
The decline in oil prices has driven up cattle prices.
Gelonghui, March 16th | Live cattle futures rose in early trading as the pullback in crude oil prices provided some relief to cattle prices. In a report, Hightower Report noted: "Lower energy prices this morning, alongside rising stock markets and a softer dollar, may lend support to the market." However, new pressure on cattle prices could emerge as the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado, has gone on strike — a development that is reducing demand for fattened cattle and weighing on their prices, which could also impact live cattle futures. The most actively traded live cattle contract rose by 0.8%, while lean hog futures edged up this morning.
Not Just Oil Prices! UN Warns: Shipping Disruptions May Push Up Fertilizer and Food Prices
①Multiple vessel attacks indicate that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively in a state of closure, a situation that has shocked the global oil market; ②A United Nations report warns that rising energy, fertilizer, and transportation costs, along with increased shipping and insurance fees, could drive up food costs, intensify cost-of-living pressures, and severely impact the poorest countries.
Following energy metals, agricultural products are quietly taking the lead in a new round of commodity market trends.
Agricultural products are now driving the upward trend in commodities following the rally in energy and metals. Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat, pointed out that as volatility in the U.S. stock market intensifies, capital is shifting toward agricultural commodities, which have already shown technical breakout signals. Corn, wheat, and soybeans are expected to continue their upward trajectory through 2026. Supply-side risks are simultaneously exacerbating the situation: 33% of global fertilizer trade originates from the Gulf region, and geopolitical conflicts could impact sowing season costs across Asia and Europe.
Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk