HSBC forecasts that high oil prices will be unfavorable for the exchange rates of most Asian currencies.
HSBC has raised its year-end exchange rate forecasts for the US dollar against most Asian currencies, as oil prices are expected to remain high throughout much of the second and third quarters. In a report, foreign exchange strategists Paul Mackel and Joey Chew stated that a prolonged deadlock over Iran may emerge before an agreement is reached. Meanwhile, rising downside risks to economic growth will add further pressure on procyclical Asian currencies. The report highlighted that the Malaysian ringgit, Singapore dollar, and New Taiwan dollar will demonstrate greater resilience due to their varying combinations of supportive factors, including better energy security (ringgit).
Express News | Reuters Survey: Short bets on the Philippine peso reach their highest level since October 2022. Analysts have reduced their bullish positions on the Malaysian ringgit. Short bets on the Indonesian rupiah have climbed to their highest level since November
Express News | The Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia: The Middle East conflict will lead to some fluctuations in the ringgit, but these are cyclical fluctuations.
Express News | The Governor of Bank Negara Malaysia: Reform measures and investor confidence will provide support for the Ringgit exchange rate.
Express News | Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia: Given the U.S. dollar's trajectory and domestic fundamentals, the ringgit's outlook remains optimistic.
Malaysia's Growth Outlook Supported But Risks Are Growing -- Market Talk