Ueda hospitalized, Uchida steps in: This 45-minute press conference next week could shape market direction for the second half of the year
In August 2024, the Bank of Japan triggered a global wave of unwinding in carry trades with a 25-basis-point rate hike. Twenty-two months later, history is repeating itself: positions have returned to pre-selloff levels, and the BOJ has again raised rates by 25 basis points—but this time, Governor Kazuo Ueda is absent due to illness, leaving Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, known as the 'dovish firefighter,' to face the global media alone. With hundreds of billions in short positions looming and the cushion from carry trade arbitrage halved, any miscommunication could ignite a cascading selloff. These 45 minutes will be the most dangerous moment for global markets this year.
Express News | Japanese and South Korean stock indices closed higher.
Japanese and South Korean stock markets surged, Samsung secured Google's TPU chip order, and institutions remain optimistic about the continuation of the memory supercycle.
Japanese and South Korean stock markets surged on June 12. As of the time of writing, the KOSPI Index (.KOSPI.KR) jumped by more than 8%, while the Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP) rose over 3%. Memory chip giant Samsung Electronics (005930.KR) soared by more than 10%, and SK Hynix (000660.KR) climbed nearly 8%. Earlier in the day, the Korea Exchange triggered a circuit breaker for the KOSPI after the KOSPI 200 futures rose by 5%, halting algorithmic trading for five minutes. Meanwhile, major positive news emerged from Samsung Electronics. According to Ke
For the first time in history! Bank of Japan Governor skips rate decision due to illness; markets price in a rate hike, but Saito Asako may have found an opportunity?
Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalized due to an infected liver cyst and will miss the interest rate decision meeting on June 15–16—the first time since 1998 that the Bank of Japan governor has been absent. Market expectations for a rate hike at this meeting have already reached 88%, and his absence is not expected to affect the outcome. However, Nomura warned that this will make policy communication regarding the BOJ’s subsequent rate path “extremely complicated.” Meanwhile, whether Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who advocates accommodative monetary policy, will seize this opportunity to influence the central bank’s direction has become a new focal point for markets.
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Citi published a report stating that high-tech stocks, which have been driving the Japanese equity market since April, underwent a significant correction on the previous day (the 8th), leading to sharp declines in both the Nikkei and TOPIX indices. The bank believes that this tech-led correction in Japanese equities is unlikely to persist for long and expects considerable upside potential by year-end. Supporting factors include: 1) limited room for further increases in U.S. long-term interest rates; 2) strong earnings momentum in AI- and semiconductor-related stocks, whose valuations are not necessarily excessive; 3) solid earnings prospects in sectors beyond AI and semiconductors; and 4) ample global liquidity, with corresponding capital flows anticipated.
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Is the Bank of Japan hitting the brakes on QT? Reports suggest it may pause the reduction of bond purchases in the next fiscal year, though internal disagreements remain.
According to informed sources, the Bank of Japan will consider maintaining its current scale of government bond purchases unchanged beyond the next fiscal year, thereby pausing its bond-buying tapering process.
Express News | Nikkei: Bank of Japan expected to raise interest rates to 1% in June, with potential follow-up action as early as October
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Is the AI bull market intact? After a sharp sell-off in tech stocks, Wall Street assesses it as a healthy correction!
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The dollar-yen pair is struggling to gain momentum, as dollar-buying sentiment persists amid ongoing caution over potential Japanese intervention.
[Overseas Markets Today] On the European and U.S. foreign exchange markets on the 8th, USD/JPY is expected to trade sideways with limited upside. Strong U.S. employment data released last Friday has reignited speculation about further monetary tightening, supporting a dollar-positive sentiment; however, heightened caution over potential foreign exchange intervention is increasing market tension, likely exerting downward pressure on any rallies.
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Japan's currency crisis intensifies; asset management giant says a 25-basis-point rate hike this month is wholly insufficient
① As the yen once again approaches the intervention warning level of 160 per U.S. dollar, Masayuki Oguchi, Chief Executive Fund Manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management, warned that a mere 25-basis-point rate hike this month may be insufficient to reverse the yen's depreciation, and the possibility of an outsized or unscheduled rate hike cannot be ruled out; ② Market participants believe the Bank of Japan has fallen behind on inflation and exchange rate developments and is now caught in a dilemma: supporting the yen risks damaging the bond market, while protecting the bond market undermines the yen.
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Is the 'AI bubble' alarm sounding again? Tokyo's AI investment frenzy meets profit-taking, with foreign investors recording their first net sale of Japanese equities in two months.
Amid renewed concerns over an AI bubble, foreign investors have been selling Japanese equities aggressively.