Did the End of the U.S. Government Shutdown Turn into a Negative Catalyst? Wall Street Sees an Exodus of Capital.
The crisis of missing data is shaking the foundation of the Federal Reserve's policy, making the high valuations of U.S. stocks appear increasingly fragile as investors accelerate profit-taking.
The U.S. and South Korea announced details of their trade agreement: South Korea to invest $350 billion and advance its nuclear submarine program.
① The United States and South Korea announced a trade agreement, under which South Korea will invest USD 350 billion in the U.S., with USD 150 billion allocated to the shipbuilding industry and USD 200 billion to the industrial sector; ② South Korean President Lee Jae-myung stated that the agreement includes the construction of nuclear-powered submarines as well as cooperation in shipbuilding, artificial intelligence, and the nuclear industry; ③ Lee Jae-myung emphasized that project investments will be limited to those with commercial viability.
How much longer will the US stock market continue to fall? Historical data shows that, following a major rally, sell-offs last an average of 25 trading days; it has already been 21 days.
The recent sharp pullback in the U.S. stock market, particularly the steep decline in momentum stocks, has left investors uncertain about the future direction of the market. According to the latest analysis by Morgan Stanley, historical data suggests that the current sell-off may be entering its 'later stages.' However, the most vulnerable speculative segments of the market still face the risk of further 'deleveraging,' and the short-term outlook remains far from optimistic. As per Morgan Stanley's report, since peaking on October 15, the momentum index composed of long-short strategies has fallen by more than 14%. More notably, this round of sell-offs, led by previously strong-performing stocks, has now lasted for 21 trading days and is approaching a historical average of approximately 25 trading days.
Market divergence: Hedge funds continue to sell stocks, while retail investors prop up the bull market.
Professional investors have consistently viewed the market's record-breaking rally as an opportunity to take profits, while retail investors have shouldered most of the support during the latest phase of this three-year bull market.
U.S. liquidity indicators show signs of 'tightening' again— is the market pressuring the Fed to 'restart QE'?
Liquidity in the U.S. short-term funding market has shown signs of tightening again, with the spread between the key interest rate indicator SOFR and the reserve interest rate widening to 8 basis points, indicating that bank reserves are shifting from "abundant" to "scarce." This change occurred shortly after the Federal Reserve had just ended its quantitative tightening, and the market expects it to be forced to initiate "reserve management purchases" to inject liquidity. Although the Fed views this as a technical operation, the market has already interpreted it as a disguised new round of quantitative easing (QE).
Trump accelerates efforts to tap 'Latin American breadbasket,' granting tariff exemptions on food imports from multiple countries.
To alleviate domestic pressure from high food prices, the Trump administration announced a trade framework agreement with four countries, including Argentina. According to the White House statement, the U.S. and Argentina will mutually open key commodity markets, and tariff barriers across multiple sectors will be eliminated.