Express News | Trump says there is no need to extend the ceasefire with Iran.
Trump's latest statement: The U.S. war with Iran has ended, and a return to the negotiating table may occur within the next two days.
①After the US-Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend and the US began blockading Iranian ports, President Trump's latest statement on the 14th sent more signals to ease tensions; ②Trump said in a latest interview on the 14th that the US war with Iran has “ended”; ③He also stated earlier that day that talks with Iran “may be held within the next two days” in Pakistan.
As oil prices remain volatile at high levels, Wells Fargo & Co advises that it is time to take profits in energy stocks!
Oil prices surged above $90 following the shock of the Iran war, marking the strongest increase for the same period since 2000. However, Wells Fargo & Co sounded an alarm at this critical juncture, warning that geopolitical premiums are unsustainable, as evidenced by previous crises. The bank decisively downgraded the energy sector to "underweight" and explicitly guided capital towards industrial metals and precious metals.
16-Day Deadline! Once U.S. military blockades are enforced, Iran’s oil production may be forced to halt.
Analysts believe that if the U.S. Navy successfully intercepts, Iran's onshore storage tanks will reach their capacity limit in approximately 16 days, forcing oilfield production cuts. However, Iran’s 150 million barrels of tanker-borne buffer reserves held outside the Strait can sustain its exports for several weeks and provide room for negotiation. Iran is leveraging the threat of blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a bargaining chip, betting that its resilience will outlast the Trump administration's political tolerance for high oil prices. The expiration of waivers on April 19 will be a critical juncture.
Express News | British media: Trump says it is highly likely that an agreement with Iran will be reached before the visit of the British King to the US.
US stocks have been the first to recover all losses! In the seventh week of the US-Iran conflict, is the global market on the verge of a 'major reshuffle'?
①An increasing number of signs indicate that as the Middle East conflict enters its seventh week, global financial markets are beginning to show a divergent trend… ②Such divergence is first reflected across asset classes. Additionally, significant divergence has emerged among stock markets in different regions around the world.
Express News | The US military has claimed to have completely cut off Iran's maritime import and export trade.
Express News | Trump stated that the war between the United States and Iran has ended.
Canada Suspends Fuel Tax as Iran War Pushes Up Gas Prices -- WSJ
Without an extension, the Trump administration will allow the Iran maritime oil sanctions waiver to expire this week.
The U.S. Treasury Department confirmed that it will not extend the short-term exemption and warned financial institutions against assisting the Iranian government in transferring funds. It reportedly sent letters to countries and regions, including the UAE, on Tuesday, urging them to cooperate in identifying and halting banking activities related to the Iranian government. Last month, the department granted a 30-day exemption allowing some Iranian crude oil, totaling 140 million barrels, located offshore to flow into the market. The exemption is set to expire this Sunday.
The over two-hour U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon have concluded, with U.S. officials stating that an agreement has been reached on the disarmament of Hezbollah.
This marks the first direct talks between non-military personnel from Israel and Lebanon in several decades. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio met with delegations from both Israel and Lebanon at the U.S. Department of State and attended the talks held within the State Department, expressing hopes that the discussions would establish a framework for a peace process. A senior official from the U.S. Department of State stated that the United States supports the disarmament of Hezbollah and will not allow Iran to control Lebanon’s future.
Express News | US gasoline and diesel prices hit record highs for the same period
Monitoring agencies reported that two vessels departing from Iran passed through the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. military stated that tens of thousands of personnel were enforcing a 'blockade order' at Iranian ports, resulting in six ships turning ba
According to Kpler, two vessels successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz after departing from Iran despite U.S. blockades. The U.S. military stated that no ships breached the blockade during the first 24 hours of the operation to seal off Iranian ports; the U.S. is committed to ensuring smooth passage for non-Iranian vessels traveling to and from the strait. U.S. media reported that five out of six returning ships were carrying oil, and no shots were fired during the U.S. naval blockade. Iranian media claimed that Trump’s remarks on Monday regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz did not align with reality. Analysts noted that the U.S. naval blockade appeared to comply with the rules of naval warfare.
Express News | U.S. Official: U.S. Government to Terminate Iran Maritime Oil Sanctions Waiver This Week
Analysts See U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Rising
Express News | U.S. officials: The Strait of Hormuz has not been fully blockaded; the measures only target vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports.
Nymex Overview: Oil Futures Pull Back on Hopes for U.S.-Iran Talks -- OPIS
Trump stated that talks with Iran 'might take place within the next two days' in Pakistan.
On Tuesday, multiple media outlets reported that the U.S. and Iran might soon begin a second round of talks. Some reports stated that U.S. officials were considering potential dates and locations for negotiations, provided that ongoing discussions between the U.S., Iran, and mediators in the coming days yield progress. Others noted that Trump remains open to continuing negotiations if he believes Iran is willing to meet U.S. demands, and would be prepared to resume talks promptly. Additionally, some sources highlighted that the key points of contention in the U.S.-Iran talks are ensuring the smooth flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and addressing Iran's nuclear capabilities.
Express News | U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that gasoline prices may continue to rise for several more weeks.
As the blockade of Hormuz enters its seventh week, Goldman Sachs states: this is not a repeat of the 2022 inflation, and there is still room for two interest rate cuts within the year.
Goldman Sachs believes that the energy shock triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict is only a case of 'mild stagflation' and will not lead to an inflationary spiral like in 2022. The rise in oil prices primarily erodes consumption and suppresses growth but does not stimulate shale oil capital expenditures to form a counterbalance. Within this framework, Goldman Sachs has raised its inflation forecast while lowering its GDP and employment expectations, maintaining its projection of two interest rate cuts within the year (in September and December).