Mahmoud is poised to become the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, boosting the pound and UK government bonds.
Andy Burnham, who is set to become the UK Prime Minister, will appoint Shabana Mahmood as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Burnham has chosen Mahmood, the current Home Secretary, over Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, to lead the UK Treasury. One source described the decision to the newspaper as “finalized,” though the report noted that Mahmood had not yet been informed of the decision. Representatives for Burnham and Mahmood did not immediately respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for Burnham previously stated that personnel decisions would be announced in due course. The former Mayor of Greater Manchester is scheduled to assume leadership of the ruling Labour Party on Friday and succeed outgoing Prime Minister Starmer on Monday. Given
Express News | RBC Capital Markets: GBP/EUR May Extend Gains After Hitting a One-Year High
UK government bond supply pressures are back on the table, and the pricing dynamics for sterling are shifting.
On Monday, June 22, the British pound once again became a highly sensitive asset in the foreign exchange market. Following Prime Minister Starmer's announcement of his resignation, sterling fell to around 1.3183 against the U.S. dollar before rebounding above 1.3200, though it remained near its lowest levels for the year. The euro-sterling exchange rate held steady near 0.867, indicating that markets did not immediately price in disorderly conditions. What traders should truly watch is not the single-day decline but whether political developments will reignite a fiscal risk premium for the UK. Currently, the yield on 10-year UK government bonds remains around 4.85%, while net public sector debt reached 95.1% of GDP in May.
New York Foreign Exchange Market: The US Dollar Slightly Fell at the Start of the Week as the Market Focused on the Situation in Iran and Oil Price Trends
The Bloomberg Dollar Index started the week on a downturn, with U.S. Treasury yields hovering near multi-year highs while oil prices rose as both the United States and Iran rejected each other's newly proposed peace plans. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.1%; last week, the index surged 1.2%, marking its largest weekly gain in over two months. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased by 3 basis points to 4.62%, while Brent crude oil rose 2.3% to $111.80 per barrel. Earlier, Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that the U.S. had proposed temporarily lifting sanctions on Iranian oil before a final peace agreement was reached; however, a source indicated due to sensitivity.
Reversal in war-related pricing! The euro has regained lost ground, but pound sterling options continue to warn of 'extreme volatility.'
In the options market, the pound appears to be more vulnerable than the euro. This indicates that even after the ceasefire in Iran, traders still believe the UK is more susceptible to spikes in energy prices.
Middle East conflicts deal a heavy blow to the European economy! The euro records its worst quarterly performance in 2024, with bearish sentiment reaching a four-year high.
Driven by the rise in energy prices amid the Middle East conflict, the euro is set to post its worst quarterly decline against the dollar since 2024, with a cumulative drop of 2.5% in March. The options market indicates that demand for downside protection on the euro has reached a four-year high, reflecting a surge in bearish sentiment. The energy shock coincides with a slowdown in economic activity, offsetting the fiscal tailwinds that had bolstered the euro at the start of the year.