Triple bearish factors trigger simultaneous selloff in stocks and bonds: 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaches 5%, probability of Fed rate hike in September surges to 72%

The months-long selloff in U.S. Treasuries is sliding into dangerous territory. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is approaching the critical 5% threshold, while the 30-year yield has hit a 19-year high. Soaring oil prices, stubborn inflation, and Trump’s promise of over $1 trillion in spending have formed a triple headwind, pushing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to 72%. The global anchor for asset pricing is shaking violently, intensifying the risk of simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds, as market attention focuses on Friday’s CPI data and next week’s monetary policy decision. I. Bond Market Storm Intensifies: 10-Year Yield Hits Highest Level Since Financial Crisis The months-long selloff in U.S. Treasuries is sliding into dangerous territory. On Thursday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed at 4.9

FX678 FinanceSep 11 09:41

Investors Worried About Rising Bond Yields Are Keeping a Close Eye on This Corner of the Market

By Christine Idzelis Small-caps are under pressure after outperforming the S&P 500 earlier in the year. They could be an important bellwether going forward. Small-cap stocks are down in the third

MarketWatchSep 10 00:09

S&P 500 and Dow Jones Face Nine-Year Losing Streak: What History Says About Stocks After Labor Day

With summer unofficially over, historical data shows a consistent nine-year Tuesday-losing streak for major indexes immediately after the Labor Day holiday, fueling the possibility of a tenth

BenzingaSep 8 14:31

China Merchants Securities: Frequent Policies to Curb Cutthroat Competition; Monitor Progress in the Auto Industry

China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that policies aimed at curbing cutthroat competition are being introduced frequently, and investors should monitor developments in the automotive industry.

Zhitong FinanceSep 8 06:25

Tightening Policy Meets AI Capital Expenditure: Risks Remain Resilient

Key View: The policy paths of the Federal Reserve and global central banks are leaning hawkish, with multiple rate hikes expected before year-end. At the Jackson Hole symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish signal, emphasizing that the 2% PCE inflation target remains unchanged and that further action will be required if underlying inflation does not improve. Despite aggressive market expectations, JPMorgan still anticipates a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in December, although the possibility of a hike in September also exists given the strength of the labor market. Additionally, the Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank, Norges Bank, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are each expected to raise rates by 25 basis points before year-end; new forecasts suggest that the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will act in September.

CSOPSep 5 12:11

China Merchants Securities: Global risk assets underperformed in the three to six months leading up to the election; since entering October, both the probability of gains and average returns have generally improved.

Gelonghui, September 3 – China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that a review of U.S. midterm elections since 1970 shows global risk assets generally underperformed in the three to six months preceding the elections. Performance improved in terms of both win rates and average returns after entering October, with further strengthening observed in the three to six months following the election results. The pattern is most consistent for U.S. equities: the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 indices collectively showed weak performance in the three to six months before the midterms, with average returns of -3%, 0%, and -4% respectively over the six-month period. One month before the midterms, i.e., from October onward, all three indices significantly strengthened, with their probabilities of rising reaching 64%

Gelonghui FinanceSep 3 22:16