Silver NOV7 (SI2711) News

U.S. equity risk premium hits lowest level since 2002; JPMorgan warns that the impact of rising interest rates will be more severe than in the past two decades

The risk buffer for U.S. equities is running critically low. JPMorgan warns that the equity risk premium of the S&P 500 has fallen to 2.1%, its lowest level since 2002 and more than 100 basis points below the historical average. This era of low premiums conceals three major risks: a systemic increase in the stock market’s sensitivity to interest rate shocks, rebalancing pressures as global investors’ equity overweight reaches a two-decade high, and the strengthening positive correlation between stocks and bonds, which continues to undermine risk parity strategies. Should real interest rates rise further, this quiet valuation repricing could manifest violently.

wallstreetcnSep 10 22:33

快讯 | 美国8月PPI同比增长5.4%超预期，美联储加息预期骤升

US August PPI YoY +5.4% Vs +5.3% Forecast, Prior +4.7%

BreakingsSep 10 20:30

The size of U.S. long-term Treasury bond repurchases may reach up to $6 billion, falling short of market expectations.

The U.S. Treasury has tripled the cap on its long-term bond buyback program to $6 billion, marking the latest effort by Treasury Secretary Bessent to curb rising long-term borrowing costs. However, the market reaction proved counterproductive, indicating that investors had anticipated a larger-scale operation.

wallstreetcnSep 10 00:16

Express News | The U.S. Treasury Department announced the scale of its Treasury bond repurchase: up to $6 billion.

The U.S. Treasury will repurchase up to $6 billion in long-term bonds on Thursday. Earlier, the Treasury announced that, by November 4, the size of each individual long-term bond buyback would be at least doubled to $4 billion.

BreakingsSep 9 23:02

Expectations of a rate hike have never missed the 40% threshold; the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike may emerge as the “least bad option”.

The surge in non-farm payroll data has pushed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to 60%, leaving Governor Warsh in a dilemma between "disappointing the market" and "disappointing Trump." Shenwan Hongyuan warns that since 2015, expectations of a rate hike exceeding 40% have never failed to materialize, and heightened market expectations for a rate hike are unlikely to subside significantly following the release of CPI data. If the Fed makes an exception this time, the term premium could suffer a backlash. However, if the rate hike proceeds without a substantial upward revision to the future path, the impact may be much milder than market expectations suggest.

wallstreetcnSep 9 19:03

Express News | Iranian media reported explosions near Kharg Island.

International gold and silver prices declined in the short term, with spot gold briefly falling below $4,360; Iranian media reported explosions near Kharg Island.

BreakingsSep 9 02:55

New York Fed Analyzes Global Dollar Reserves: Dollar Share Declines, but 'De-dollarization' Narrative Is Overstated

According to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the decline in the U.S. dollar's share of foreign exchange reserves does not reflect a broad-based shift away from the currency, but rather the actions of a limited number of reserve managers.

Zhitong FinanceSep 7 19:54

Will next week's U.S. CPI data trigger a September rate hike? BofA and Citi present two opposing scenarios.

BofA Securities projects that the core CPI will rise by 0.22% month-on-month in August, arguing that inflation remains sufficiently elevated to support a rate hike in September. In contrast, Citi forecasts core CPI growth of only 0.18%, with the annual rate declining to 2.3%, suggesting the Federal Reserve is more likely to hold rates steady. The divergence between these two institutions stems from the discrepancy between CPI and PCE trends, as well as Governor Waller’s key tolerance threshold for inflation. Analysts suggest that if the data comes in hotter than expected, the Fed may be forced to adopt a more aggressive tightening path.

wallstreetcnSep 6 09:11

Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly surge, lifting the probability of a September rate hike to approximately 60%, triggering simultaneous repricing in U.S. equities and bonds.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August significantly exceeded expectations, further widening market分歧 over the Federal Reserve's policy direction in September.

wallstreetcnSep 5 10:15

How does Wall Street view the August non-farm payrolls? Strong employment figures have not ended the suspense over a September rate hike; next week's CPI holds "decisive significance."

The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August was surprisingly strong, prompting the market to reassess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. However, Wall Street does not believe this resolves the policy uncertainty. According to analysts at multiple institutions, while the robust employment data has indeed strengthened the hand of the hawkish camp within the Fed, it is insufficient on its own to determine the outcome of the September monetary policy meeting. The CPI data scheduled for release next week remains the key factor likely to "set the direction." On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000. Additionally, job gains for the previous two months were revised upward by a combined 55,000, with July's figure being adjusted from a decrease of 23,000.

wallstreetcnSep 5 03:45

快讯 | 美国8月非农增加16.2万人，远高于预期；失业率为4.1%符合预期

US Aug. Non-Farm Payrolls +162000 Vs +56000 Forecast, Prior +21000; US Aug. Unemployment Rate 4.1% Vs 4.1% Forecast, Prior 4.1%

BreakingsSep 4 20:30

The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August will be released at 20:30 tonight. Bank of America states that the non-farm report is merely a precursor, with the CPI holding the trigger for policy decisions; employment data would need to show a "significant w

The key market driver in tonight’s non-farm payrolls report is whether it can alter expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. If job growth turns negative for a second consecutive month, or if the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, market pricing may loosen significantly; otherwise, inflation will continue to dominate policy assessments.

Golden10 DataSep 4 11:16

Non-farm payrolls to be released tonight! New jobs may total only 56,000; how will the S&P 500 react?

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for August is set to be released, with the market forecasting a modest increase of only 56,000 jobs. While labor market conditions remain weak, they have not deteriorated significantly; the Federal Reserve’s policy focus remains on inflation, meaning that soft nonfarm payrolls data does not necessarily imply an interest rate cut. JPMorgan anticipates that different outcomes could lead to markedly divergent trajectories for the S&P 500.

Golden10 DataSep 4 08:22

Update: US Equity Indexes Rise, Treasury Yields Slump Amid Plunging Bets of September Fed Policy Tightening

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes rose as government bond yields slumped amid a fall in market

MT NewswiresSep 4 01:52

The yen surged suddenly amid renewed rumors of Japanese intervention, prompting a rebound in gold and silver prices.

The yen strengthened sharply on Wednesday, while the U.S. Dollar Index recorded its largest intraday decline since August 21, with spot gold approaching $4,400. Rumors circulated that Japanese authorities had intervened again, but traders viewed the magnitude of the gain as insufficient to confirm intervention.

Golden10 DataSep 2 22:57

Gold selling pressure is nearing exhaustion! Deutsche Bank: Even a hawkish Federal Reserve struggles to curb the strength of precious metals, with the next rally potentially driven by proactive capital inflows.

The gold market is standing at a critical turning point.

wallstreetcnSep 2 15:45

Following Waller's hawkish remarks, market focus shifts to rate hikes; Morgan Stanley sees balance sheet reduction as more likely

Following the Jackson Hole meeting, market attention has focused on interest rate hike expectations. However, Morgan Stanley economist Carpenter highlights that Governor Waller’s long-standing advocacy for shrinking the $7 trillion balance sheet should not be overlooked. The Federal Reserve is expected to launch a balance sheet reduction program exceeding $1.5 trillion next year, partially substituting for interest rate hikes.

wallstreetcnAug 31 08:34

U.S. forces launched a night raid on the Strait of Hormuz, destroying two Iranian launchers; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed "inevitable retaliation"!

U.S. forces conducted a night raid on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island, alleging they were preparing to lay mines. This marks the first time since late July that Washington has publicly acknowledged military action against Iran. Tehran has vowed retaliation and claimed to have fired missiles at U.S. military bases.

Golden10 DataAug 31 07:13

After Waller’s speech at Jackson Hole, is the Fed left with no choice but to hike rates in September?

Following Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s hawkish debut at the Jackson Hole Annual Symposium, markets rapidly priced in expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. On Friday, Waller stated unequivocally that the 2% inflation target remains "unwavering" and that current financial conditions are "hardly restrictive." He noted that recent PCE and CPI data, which came in better than expected, were insufficient to demonstrate a "meaningful improvement" in underlying inflation trends. He set a clear threshold for action: unless there is confidence that inflation is declining at a "clear and sufficiently fast" pace, the Fed "still has work to do." Markets quickly incorporated these hawkish signals. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note jumped 12 basis points to 4.35%, marking its highest level since June.

wallstreetcnAug 29 09:46

Jackson Hole Symposium: Uncertainties and Implications?

The upcoming Jackson Hole Annual Meeting undoubtedly represents a critical window for Warsh to repair the credibility gap in the Federal Reserve’s policy communication.

Chuan Yue Global MacroAug 28 15:45