Could silver prices rise by another 40%? Citi maintains its bullish stance on silver
Citi assesses that investment flows may become the core variable determining silver prices in the next phase. It expects that once U.S.-Iran tensions cool down, likely between September and December, silver could emerge as the most attractive upside candidate in the precious metals market.
Unexpected Turn to Negative! U.S. Retail Sales Fell 0.6% Month-on-Month in July, Marking the Largest Decline in Over a Year
Just as inflation begins to cool, U.S. consumer spending has suddenly weakened, making the Federal Reserve’s policy choices more nuanced and reducing the likelihood of multiple rate hikes within the year...
Express News | US July Retail Sales MoM -0.6% Vs +0.1% Forecast, Prior +0.2%
UBS Group forecasts that gold prices could challenge the $5,000 mark in the first half of next year, supported by declining real interest rates and central bank gold purchases.
In their latest report, UBS Group strategists stated that declining real interest rates will drive investors back to the gold market, while a weaker U.S. dollar and robust central bank gold purchases will jointly push gold prices toward the $5,000 per ounce mark in the first half of next year.
Divergence Among Fed Officials Emerges: Barkin Supports Holding Steady, Hammack Insists on Rate Hike
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin supports holding interest rates steady, arguing that inflation stems primarily from temporary shocks, but warns that AI investment and supply chain dynamics could exert persistent price pressures. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, meanwhile, reaffirmed her stance in favor of rate hikes, cautioning against financial stability risks such as U.S. Treasury leverage and an AI bubble. With unemployment remaining low and economic data presenting a mixed picture, the Federal Reserve’s policy path for its September meeting is fraught with uncertainty.
Citi takes a bold bullish stance: Silver prices are expected to reach $90 per ounce in the next 6–12 months.
Citi reaffirmed its strong bullish stance on silver on Wednesday, forecasting that prices could rise to $90 per ounce over the next 6 to 12 months. This outlook is driven by investment demand stepping in to offset weakening industrial usage, contingent upon a de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis and a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve.
Fully in line with expectations! The year-on-year increase in the U.S. CPI for July narrowed to 3.4%, while core CPI slowed to 2.5% year-on-year.
Traders maintain their bet on a 45% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
Fully in line with expectations! Full text of the U.S. July CPI report: Year-on-year growth narrows to 3.4%, with falling energy prices as the main drag
In July, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI eased to 2.5% on an annual basis. The decline in energy prices was the primary drag, whereas housing costs still accounted for approximately two-thirds of the overall monthly increase. Below is the full text of the CPI report.
Express News | US Jul. CPI YoY +3.4% Vs +3.4% Forecast, Prior +3.5%
Markets are extremely tense ahead of the CPI release! PIMCO offers reassurance: interest rates are bound to plunge!
Ahead of the July CPI data release, the swap market is pricing in over a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. However, executives at PIMCO, which manages trillions in assets, argue that market concerns about inflation and rate hikes are entirely unwarranted.
The “anchor of global asset pricing” reaches a critical juncture! A dovish surprise in the U.S. CPI could trigger short covering in U.S. Treasuries, thereby fueling the rally in risk assets.
Wall Street remains divided on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month, but Wednesday’s inflation report will determine the Fed’s next move. Traders assign roughly a 50% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike, while stronger-than-expected economic data could increase the likelihood of a rate increase.
Pakistan claims that the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching an agreement.
First loudly demanding compensation, then quietly making a breakthrough? Pakistan has released a major update: the U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement of some kind.
CME Announces: Following Gold, Silver Futures to Join '24/7 Trading'
CME Group will expand its 100-ounce silver futures contract to 24/7 trading on September 11, pending regulatory approval. Following the weekend trading of over 53,000 contracts in the 1-ounce gold futures contract, silver is now adopting a round-the-clock trading schedule. The silver contract averaged 17,800 contracts per day in the first half of the year, reflecting continued growth in trading activity. Extended trading hours will enable investors to respond more promptly to macroeconomic and geopolitical events and broaden their risk management window.
Express News | CME Group: 24-hour silver trading to launch on September 11
Express News | Pakistan signals on U.S.-Iran talks: 'Close to reaching some kind of arrangement'
‘The New Fed Wire’ Issues Strong Warning: September Rate Hike Hinges on Inflation Data!
① The so-called 'New Fed Wire' stated that if the U.S. July CPI data released on Wednesday comes in mild, it would simultaneously ease the pressure on both Waller personally and the FOMC to raise interest rates—pressure stemming from their ongoing reassessment of whether they had underestimated the resilience of the U.S. economy. ② Conversely, if the data remains elevated, it could force him to demonstrate through concrete action the point he struggled last month to articulate clearly.
Is the gold and silver bull market about to resume? Experts say the pullback is a 'normal fluctuation,' and the long-term risk-reward profile has improved!
① Maria Smirnov, Chief Investment Officer at Sprott Inc., stated that the recent decline in gold prices represents a normal correction within a bull market rather than a reversal of the trend, and that the outlook for silver remains highly attractive; ② She noted that factors such as rising sovereign debt, fiscal deficits, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical fragmentation continue to underpin gold’s strategic role, and that fundamentals for precious metals mining equities remain robust.
Express News | US Jul. Non-Farm Payrolls -23000 Vs +80000 Forecast, Prior +20000; US Jul. Unemployment Rate 4.1% Vs 4.2% Forecast, Prior 4.2%
Silver surged 8.3% in a single week, with Goldman Sachs warning that systemic short-covering may have already begun.
A rally in precious metals triggered by a weakening U.S. dollar is cornering silver short sellers.
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is set for release tonight at 20:30! Could weak data fuel rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut?
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July will be released this Friday, with markets expecting an increase of 83,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. ② Recent leading indicators have been weak, and multiple institutions anticipate that July’s nonfarm payrolls will fall short of expectations; the current pattern of “low hiring, low layoffs” is significantly impacting young job seekers. ③ If labor market weakness persists, the Federal Reserve’s policy trade-off calculus could shift later this year.