"Dark horse" Riedel becomes the top candidate for Federal Reserve Chair as interest rate traders increase bets on rate cuts.

① As expectations grow that Rick Rieder, BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer, may succeed Powell, some futures and options market traders are increasing bets that the Federal Reserve will pivot to a dovish policy; ② Unpublished data on open interest in federal funds futures and SOFR futures released on Monday indicate rising market interest in new trades that could benefit from a more aggressive rate-cutting path than currently priced in.

cls.cnJan 28 08:42

Traders increase bets: Expecting the Fed to initiate a 50-basis-point rate cut before year-end

Traders anticipate that the Federal Reserve will implement at least one aggressive 50-basis-point rate cut during the remaining three policy meetings this year. This week witnessed the largest-ever trading volume in interest rate futures contracts as a hedge against a dovish surprise of a 50-basis-point cut on Wednesday.

Golden10 DataSep 17, 2025 08:23

A Fed Cut Looks Imminent—And Bond ETFs Could Be The Biggest Trade

BenzingaSep 17, 2025 04:10

US Short-Term Rate Jumps to Year High as Funding Strains Grow

Yahoo FinanceSep 16, 2025 21:45

Wall Street Divided Over Financing Costs: JPMorgan and Citi Hold Opposing Views on SOFR Trajectory, Betting on Contrary Trading Strategies

The U.S. Treasury's rebuilding of cash reserves and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction are pushing up ultra-short-term interest rates. Wall Street strategists are divided on whether the U.S. funding market will soften in the coming months due to heightened volatility in overnight borrowing costs.

Zhitong FinanceSep 16, 2025 09:20

The US Treasury liquidity 'suction machine' is in full swing! An extreme stress test targeting the Federal Reserve could push the dollar in which direction?

On Friday (September 12), the U.S. Treasury market showed signs of cautious recovery, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.036%, up 0.32% on the day. This represents a rebound from the previous low of 3.988%, but remains near the 4% threshold. The U.S. Dollar Index edged up by 0.14% to 97.6579, maintaining some buffer from its recent low of 96.3729 but failing to break above the prior high of 98.8487. The overall market sentiment resembles a tug-of-war: expectations of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week continue to loom, compounded by liquidity concerns in September, causing the U.S. Treasury yield curve to oscillate between short-term relief and long-term pressures.

FX678 FinanceSep 12, 2025 19:38