United Front – Wall Street’s 'Three-Step Approach' Aims to 'Restart Interest Rate Cuts'

Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are severe, and how newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh unifies the committee has become the biggest uncertainty for the second half of the year. China Securities Journal forecasts that he will resolve the situation in three steps: in July, rebalance personnel appointments to ensure committee equilibrium; in Q3, reframe the supply-side policy framework around an AI-driven productivity revolution; and in Q4, complete a dovish pivot and restart rate-cut speculation. Against the backdrop of improving liquidity expectations, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and tech-related narratives are gradually gaining traction, though volatility risks in Q3 should not be underestimated. Core View: Policy positions within the Fed are significantly divergent. After Warsh assumes office, reconciling these differences and forging a unified stance will be the central focus for the remainder of the year. Step One – July: Personnel arrangements and appointments to key working groups.

CITIC SecuritiesJul 7 14:07

Global Capital Markets Review and Outlook: Seeking a New Equilibrium amid Divergence and Restructuring

The first half of 2026 in global capital markets concluded amid extreme divergence and heightened volatility. The interplay between sudden geopolitical shocks and the deepening evolution of AI-driven technological transformation has reshaped the pricing dynamics across asset classes. At this mid-year juncture, reviewing the market trajectory of the past six months and projecting the path ahead for the remainder of the year is critical to identifying the key investment themes going forward.

Finet NewsJul 3 09:18

Gold and Bitcoin plunge as the U.S. dollar surges! The 'depreciation trade' rapidly unwinds, with Warsh’s potential Fed leadership emerging as the key driver.

Gold and Bitcoin have both weakened, while the U.S. dollar has staged a strong rebound, signaling the unraveling of the 'depreciation trade' that has dominated markets for the past two years.

Zhitong FinanceJun 24 22:05

Express News | The U.S. Senate voted to suspend military action against Iran unless Trump obtains congressional approval.

BreakingsJun 24 03:49

“Waller’s Debut” a “Once-in-a-Decade Turning Point”? Nomura Warns Against Preventive Rate Hikes Evolving into Substantive Tightening

Nomura Securities' Chief Macro Strategist Matsuzawa noted that markets have significantly underestimated the risk of a prolonged Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle. He argued that AI-related investment expansion and productivity gains will drive economic growth and inflation above expectations, forcing the Fed to shift from 'preemptive hikes' into a substantive tightening cycle, which would push the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield well above 5%. He warned that, in hindsight, this FOMC meeting could mark the historical starting point of the end of the credit cycle fueled by the AI boom.

wallstreetcnJun 21 10:19

Regarding Hormuz! Trump makes latest statement; U.S.-Iran technical-level talks to be held Sunday

① Over the weekend, the United States and Iran once again gave conflicting accounts regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz; ② U.S. President Trump issued a new warning that if a final agreement with Iran is not reached within 60 days, the United States will impose a toll on transit through the Strait of Hormuz; ③ Representatives from both sides are scheduled to hold their first round of technical-level talks in Switzerland on Sunday, and the Iranian negotiating delegation has already arrived in Zurich, Switzerland.

cls.cnJun 21 09:31