SGX USD/CNH FX AUG7 (UC2708)
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SGX USD/CNH FX AUG7 (UC2708) News
Trump’s Tariffs in Disguise—What’s Different This Time?
Authors: Song Xuetao, Li Mengying Source: Xuetao Macro Notes The United States is rebuilding country-specific tariffs and expanding sectoral tariffs through Section 301, Section 338, and Section 232 investigations. The Section 122 tariffs, implemented by the Trump administration as a transitional measure, will expire on July 24. However, tariff policy remains a central pillar of Trump’s core economic agenda. Based on the policy actions already taken by the Trump administration, the U.S. is using Section 301, Section 338, and Section 232 investigations to reconstruct country-specific tariffs and broaden sectoral tariffs, respectively. I. How will Trump’s new tariffs be implemented after the expiration of Section 122? Section 301 investigations primarily target trade practices of specific countries
Waller follows in Powell’s footsteps—will his long-anticipated clash with Trump finally arrive?
Wash will appear before the Senate Banking Committee hearing at 22:00 Beijing time on Wednesday.
Waller’s hearing debut may face numerous tough questions: on inflation, reaction function, interest rates, independence, and more
Facing questioning from lawmakers tonight, Wall Street does not expect the Federal Reserve's new chair— who has refused to offer any forward guidance—to provide clear answers, and only hopes he will share his views on the economy.
United Front – Wall Street’s 'Three-Step Approach' Aims to 'Restart Interest Rate Cuts'
Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are severe, and how newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh unifies the committee has become the biggest uncertainty for the second half of the year. China Securities Journal forecasts that he will resolve the situation in three steps: in July, rebalance personnel appointments to ensure committee equilibrium; in Q3, reframe the supply-side policy framework around an AI-driven productivity revolution; and in Q4, complete a dovish pivot and restart rate-cut speculation. Against the backdrop of improving liquidity expectations, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and tech-related narratives are gradually gaining traction, though volatility risks in Q3 should not be underestimated. Core View: Policy positions within the Fed are significantly divergent. After Warsh assumes office, reconciling these differences and forging a unified stance will be the central focus for the remainder of the year. Step One – July: Personnel arrangements and appointments to key working groups.
Global Capital Markets Review and Outlook: Seeking a New Equilibrium amid Divergence and Restructuring
The first half of 2026 in global capital markets concluded amid extreme divergence and heightened volatility. The interplay between sudden geopolitical shocks and the deepening evolution of AI-driven technological transformation has reshaped the pricing dynamics across asset classes. At this mid-year juncture, reviewing the market trajectory of the past six months and projecting the path ahead for the remainder of the year is critical to identifying the key investment themes going forward.
Gold and Bitcoin plunge as the U.S. dollar surges! The 'depreciation trade' rapidly unwinds, with Warsh’s potential Fed leadership emerging as the key driver.
Gold and Bitcoin have both weakened, while the U.S. dollar has staged a strong rebound, signaling the unraveling of the 'depreciation trade' that has dominated markets for the past two years.
Express News | The U.S. Senate voted to suspend military action against Iran unless Trump obtains congressional approval.
“Waller’s Debut” a “Once-in-a-Decade Turning Point”? Nomura Warns Against Preventive Rate Hikes Evolving into Substantive Tightening
Nomura Securities' Chief Macro Strategist Matsuzawa noted that markets have significantly underestimated the risk of a prolonged Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle. He argued that AI-related investment expansion and productivity gains will drive economic growth and inflation above expectations, forcing the Fed to shift from 'preemptive hikes' into a substantive tightening cycle, which would push the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield well above 5%. He warned that, in hindsight, this FOMC meeting could mark the historical starting point of the end of the credit cycle fueled by the AI boom.
Regarding Hormuz! Trump makes latest statement; U.S.-Iran technical-level talks to be held Sunday
① Over the weekend, the United States and Iran once again gave conflicting accounts regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz; ② U.S. President Trump issued a new warning that if a final agreement with Iran is not reached within 60 days, the United States will impose a toll on transit through the Strait of Hormuz; ③ Representatives from both sides are scheduled to hold their first round of technical-level talks in Switzerland on Sunday, and the Iranian negotiating delegation has already arrived in Zurich, Switzerland.
Diplomatic sources: Iran postpones negotiations with the United States due to Israel's attack on Lebanon.
According to three informed sources, talks between Iran and the United States, originally scheduled to take place in Switzerland, have been postponed due to Israel's multiple deadly airstrikes on southern Lebanon.
The Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs confirmed that the U.S.-Iran talks have been officially canceled; Japanese and South Korean stock markets plunged during trading, Nasdaq futures fell by 1%, and the U.S. Dollar Index rose above the 101 mark.
Sudden complications in U.S.-Iran negotiations triggered risk-off sentiment in markets, with precious metals leading the decline and global equities under pressure.
Express News | Traders have fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
Express News | Fed Chair Waller: Inflation remains well above the 2% target; five special task forces established in monetary policy areas
Express News | The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with nine officials projecting rate hikes in 2026.
2:30 a.m.—Global attention turns to Waller’s Fed debut: Will he drop a bombshell on markets?
The first Federal Reserve interest rate decision under Waller’s leadership is about to be revealed: a hold on rates is virtually certain, but the dovish tilt in the statement is expected to be dropped, inflation projections are likely to be significantly revised upward, and the dot plot may hint at initial rate hike expectations—the real uncertainty hinges entirely on every word uttered during Waller’s press conference.
As Congress exerts pressure and the 60-day deadline approaches, a senior U.S. official claimed that hostile actions against Iran have concluded.
Despite senior officials of the Trump administration claiming that "hostilities have ended," the U.S. blockade targeting the Strait of Hormuz has not ceased, with the U.S. Defense Secretary even asserting that Congressional authorization is unnecessary to continue the operation...
Express News | U.S. government officials: 'Hostilities that began on February 28 have ended.'
The DOJ dropped the case, Wash entered the scene, and next week’s FOMC — the countdown to a new Fed Chair begins, heralding the arrival of an era without forward guidance.
As Powell's tenure draws to a close, his successor Warsh aims to dismantle the 'forward guidance' and dot plot. This signifies the potential collapse of a 15-year foundation for global asset pricing. The premium on certainty is coming to an end, and equity, bond, and currency markets are about to lose their 'anchor.' A storm affecting the pricing models of all assets has quietly begun.
Trump stated that he would not extend the ceasefire and threatened to resume bombing Iran. Reports indicate that Iran will not participate in the negotiations scheduled for the 22nd, and Vance has postponed his attendance.
After Trump's threat of bombing, the three major U.S. stock indices turned to losses. After news spread that Vance postponed his trip, the three major indices hit new daily lows. A member of Iran's parliamentary presidium stated that there would be no second round of negotiations until the maritime blockade is resolved; an Iranian parliamentary official mentioned that if diplomatic language proves ineffective, they will choose to continue hostilities. Pakistani sources claimed that relevant U.S. negotiators have arrived in Pakistan one after another; American media reported that Vance is still in Washington and will attend a White House meeting, while his delay in traveling to Islamabad is due to internal Iranian disagreements over whether to participate in a new round of peace talks.
Goldman Sachs: The interest rate market is overly 'hawkish,' and a rebound in the stock market does not need to 'solve problems,' only that 'the impact has reached its limit.'
Goldman Sachs believes that the market has clearly overpriced the tightening of monetary policy, and for the stock market to bottom out and rebound, it does not need to wait for the crisis to be completely resolved; it only requires the market to be able to see the boundaries of downside risks.