Weekly Outlook | Powell's term ends, Warsh takes over; Trump may visit China, with CPI data from both China and the US to be released; Earnings reports from Circle, Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com, and SMIC are forthcoming; IPOs of Ledo Robotics, Jitai Technolog

In March this year, according to CCTV News, when asked about US President Trump's statement that he would visit China in mid-May, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian responded during a regular press conference on March 26, noting that head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic role in guiding Sino-US relations, and that both sides were in communication regarding President Trump's visit. On May 7, US media reported that the US government had invited CEOs of major companies such as NVIDIA, Apple, Exxon Mobil, and Boeing to join the trip.

Futu News21minutes ago

Far exceeding expectations! In the just-concluded earnings season, U.S. stocks performed astonishingly well.

U.S. corporate profits are surging with a strength rarely seen in two decades, surpassing Wall Street expectations. According to data from Bloomberg Industry Research on May 8, the year-on-year increase in earnings for S&P 500 Index components in the first quarter reached an impressive 27%, more than double analysts' prior forecast of approximately 12%. This marks the fastest growth rate since 2004, excluding periods of significant economic recovery following major shocks. The "Magnificent Seven" technology companies are projected to see a 57% leap in first-quarter profits, further validating the profit realization capabilities of AI investments. Geopolitical tensions, once considered the biggest risk to U.S. equities, have been alleviated by a robust earnings season, while economic resilience has also eased global concerns about growth.

wallstreetcn26minutes ago

Fed Official: If AI succeeds, there will be interest rate hikes; if AI fails, it will lead to stagflation.

Aubhik Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, warned at a conference hosted by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University that widespread market expectations regarding AI productivity could push up interest rates and trigger stagflation if the anticipated technological dividends fail to materialize. He noted that when such expectations are fully priced in, businesses and households may frontload consumption and investment, leading to economic overheating.

wallstreetcn10:22

Bank of America: U.S. stocks and gold may record double-digit gains for the fourth consecutive year in 2023.

① Strategists at Bank of America predict that the U.S. stock market and gold market are poised to achieve double-digit growth for the fourth consecutive year; ② The bank forecasts an annualized increase of 20% for the S&P 500 Index this year, with gold expected to rise by 30%; ③ The bank also notes that small-cap stocks, emerging markets, and commodities are at a long-term bullish turning point, with the materials sector potentially becoming the next investment opportunity.

cls.cnMay 9 21:09

Expectations for interest rate cuts have diminished further! Goldman Sachs has postponed its forecast for the Federal Reserve's rate cut to December.

Interest rate cuts face another setback! Due to the impact of the Middle East situation and persistent inflation, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates until December 2026 at the earliest. Goldman Sachs warns that future easing will require a dual approach of 'inflation subsiding + weakening employment,' significantly raising the threshold. The market should prepare for a prolonged period of high interest rates.

wallstreetcnMay 9 18:21

The rationale for the Fed's interest rate cuts is increasingly drying up, presenting a challenging situation for Warsh's succession.

The door to Fed rate cuts is closing at an accelerating pace! Amidst the dual pressures of stabilizing employment and rebounding inflation, half of Wall Street institutions have already abandoned expectations of rate cuts within the year. Futures markets are even beginning to price in potential rate hikes. Facing a comprehensive rise of hawks within its ranks, the incoming chair, Warsh, despite being tasked with maintaining low interest rates, will likely find his rate-cut agenda extremely difficult to advance.

wallstreetcnMay 9 17:40