Will the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a 'dovish pivot' and lead markets to reprice 'rate cuts'?
Citi noted that two catalysts—declining oil prices and a cooldown in core CPI—are unfolding simultaneously: expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening have pushed down energy prices, while core CPI rose just 0.21% month-over-month in May, accelerating the erosion of the Fed's hawkish rationale. The probability of Kevin Warsh delivering a dovish signal at this week’s FOMC meeting has tilted upward, leaving significant room for further declines in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, with repricing toward rate cuts potentially imminent.
Vance confidently stated: 'The United States holds the upper hand in subsequent negotiations!'
Following the preliminary ceasefire and verification framework agreement between the United States and Iran, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that although numerous technical details still need to be finalized before full implementation, the United States holds a position of clear advantage in subsequent negotiations.
CBOE Volatility Index Steady Pre-Bell as Crude Oil Futures Extend Declines, Treasury Yields Higher With Iran High on G-7 Agenda
Express News | Trump Says U.S.-Iran Deal Negotiations Enter Second Phase
Drawing ever closer, yet still failing to materialize! Morgan Stanley: The probability of a U.S.-Iran deal falling through is as high as 70%.
The U.S.-Iran conflict appears to be just one step away from resolution but continues to elude a final conclusion. A recent JPMorgan report warns that negotiations remain stuck in a state of 'perpetually approaching but never signing,' with only a 10% probability of an actual agreement being reached.
Fed Chair Nominee Waller's Debut Is Here: A Summary of Major Banks' Forecasts
In the early hours of Thursday, June 18 (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve will announce its decision from the June monetary policy meeting.
Super Week Alert: $9 Trillion in Cash Set for 'Explosive' Unfreeze, SpaceX Options Debut, and Triple Witching Arrives Early
BlackRock says $9 trillion in cash is entering the market “explosively.” SpaceX options make their debut today, potentially triggering a “gamma squeeze.” Thursday’s triple witching has been moved forward, coinciding with the S&P 500 rebalancing. A Cboe executive noted that geopolitical tensions, Waller’s debut, and SpaceX options have created an “exceptionally busy short trading week.”
The originator of the 'AI ghost story' makes a new prediction: Before the S&P 500 reaches 8,000, Walsh won’t do anything!
① The team led by James Van Guilder, founder of Citrini Research, forecasts that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will not take any action before the S&P 500 reaches 8,000 points; ② The report stated, 'We believe Warsh will remain on the sidelines until there is a clear upward signal within his established framework, and we do not see such a scenario emerging in the near term.'
The largest IPO in history was 'swallowed whole': the VIX plunged below 16, and Wall Street's panic sentiment rapidly receded.
Wall Street’s fears are dissipating at a pace as remarkable as the voracious appetite with which traders absorbed nearly $2 trillion in newly issued equities.
UBS Group: Falling oil prices ease Waller's case for rate hikes; the Fed may hold rates steady until shifting to cuts in 2027
Falconio stated that oil prices have been subdued following the announcement of an agreement between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rally in the U.S. Treasury market and easing the Federal Reserve’s pressure to raise interest rates this year.
Futu Morning Brief | U.S.-Iran deal electronically signed; U.S. equities join global market rally; SpaceX valuation surpasses $2.5 trillion; FAB 10 concept replaces Mag7; NVIDIA plans bond issuance to raise over $20 billion
Kevin Warsh is set to chair his first FOMC meeting as the newly appointed chair, fueling market speculation over the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction path.
A pivotal week for central banks is fraught with uncertainty! The Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision today, potentially ushering in the '1% era'.
This week, the geopolitical 'defusing'—marked by a deal between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—coincided with the 'Super Central Bank Week' (June 15–21), during which eight major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England, held policy meetings. This swiftly shifted market pricing dynamics away from 'stagflation fears' and back toward 'risk-off sentiment.'
U.S. Markets Close | U.S. and Iran Reach Interim Agreement; Nasdaq Surges 3%; SpaceX Jumps Nearly 20% on Second Day of Listing; AI Trading Makes Strong Comeback as Storage Sector's Big Four Hit Record Highs, Micron Rises Over 10%; Oil Prices Plunge 5%, Go
On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite surged 3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high. SPCX jumped 20% in a single day, extending its strong performance following its IPO on Friday. Oil prices declined immediately after news of the agreement emerged, with WTI crude futures plunging more than 4% to settle at $81.49 per barrel—the lowest level in three months.
Wall Street is feverishly chasing higher prices, leverage demand is surging, and U.S. equities may be setting the stage for the next 'volatility doomsday.'
High leverage itself is not necessarily a dead end; what is alarming is its convergence with an extremely fragile market structure. Market strategist Simon White noted that the average pairwise correlation among S&P 500 constituents has fallen to its second-lowest level in at least 25 years, just above the level seen before the so-called 'volatility doom' of 2018. Progress on a U.S.-Iran peace deal has revived market animal spirits, yet the current risk-reward profile remains unattractive.
‘I’m not optimistic enough yet!’ declared Ed Yardeni, a prominent bull on U.S. equities, stating the market is driven not by ‘FOMO’ (fear of missing out) but by ‘FEMO’ (fear of exiting too soon), with the current rally supported by earnings rather than a
Ed Yardeni, a well-known Wall Street strategist and president of Yardeni Research who has long been bullish on U.S. equities, recently stated that although he has consistently been viewed by the market as a 'perma-bull,' in hindsight, he was still not optimistic enough about the current rally in U.S. stocks.
Oil prices may fall toward $70! JPMorgan: Global equity rotation is set to resume.
With a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran imminent, JPMorgan strategist Ward expects oil prices to potentially drop to $70 in the coming weeks. She believes sustained downward pressure on oil prices would reignite the market rotation previously interrupted, providing tailwinds for equities; meanwhile, lower oil prices could create room for central banks to cut interest rates, offering additional support to stock valuations.
Express News | U.S. Senior Official: U.S. and Iran Have Signed a Memorandum of Understanding
Goldman Sachs trader warns: AI-driven trading is no longer in the era of simple 'buy everything'
Goldman Sachs trader Lee Coppersmith warned that the AI theme is moving beyond the simplistic 'buy everything' phase. Investors are beginning to tap the brakes, primarily due to market correction needs, concerns over leverage and concentrated positions, and a growing focus on opportunities outside AI. Although the overarching AI narrative remains intact, internal divergence is intensifying. Cloud computing providers continue to report high capital expenditures, and the market is now demanding tangible returns—making granular stock selection critical.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic line up to ring the bell: Who will ultimately foot the bill for the largest IPO wave in history?
Analysts at GLJ Research noted that U.S. IPO fundraising in 2026 could reach $200 billion—exceeding the combined total from the internet bubble years of 1999 and 2000, and nearly double the amount raised during the speculative peak of 2021. Historically, record-breaking issuance volumes have not signaled market prosperity; rather, they have served as a warning that a market top is approaching, as such activity drains liquidity from the market.
Express News | Iran: Certain provisions of the Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding will take effect on the 15th