U.S. Corn Export Sales Land on Low Side of Forecasts
Middle East War + Super El Niño! UBS Group Warns: Asia's Food Inflation Could Heat Up Across the Board
A UBS Group report notes that food inflation in Asia is facing dual pressures from El Niño and fertilizer price shocks. The probability of El Niño persisting through late 2026 to early 2027 is as high as 96%, potentially disrupting harvest seasons in South and Southeast Asia due to drought conditions. Thai white rice prices surged by 20% in May alone. Meanwhile, fertilizer prices remain structurally tight due to Middle East conflicts, with cost pass-through effects expected to gradually materialize starting April 2027.
Farmer Sentiment Inches Lower as Input Costs Weigh -- Market Talk
U.S. Ethanol Stocks Inch Up
AGS WEEK AHEAD: Argentina to Reduce Taxes on Grains Exports, U.S.-Iran Peace Progress in Focus
U.S.-Iran negotiations failed to reach an agreement, leading to lower grain prices.
Gelonghui, May 26 | Grain futures at the Chicago Board of Trade declined in pre-market trading after the United States and Iran failed to reach a ceasefire agreement over the extended weekend. “The U.S.-Iran conflict situation remains highly fluid,” AgMarket.net stated in a report. “The U.S. conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran as Iran was attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing combat and a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have intensified concerns over inflation.” In pre-market trading, CBOT corn futures fell 0.6%, soybean futures dropped 0.5%, and wheat futures declined 0.5%.
China Agreements Lift Agriculture Stocks and Commodities -- WSJ
Get Ready for French Fry Inflation: Potato Futures Spike 700% as Iran War Threatens Fertilizer Supply
If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, will a fiercer agricultural commodities bull market than in 2022 emerge?
When the global energy hub falls into paralysis, a systemic inflation driven by the trinity of 'gas prices-fertilizer prices-grain prices' is lurking within the lagging pricing logic of the agricultural products market. According to information from the WindChaser Trading Platform, on March 17, Bank of America issued a global agricultural strategy report pointing out that as tensions with Iran escalated, the Strait of Hormuz had 'effectively ceased commercial traffic' in early March, with multiple vessel attacks occurring in the region. The importance of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be overstated. Approximately one-fifth of the world's oil transportation relies on this waterway. This conflict has caused a supply disruption exceeding 20 million barrels per day, marking the largest scale disruption in recent decades.
Not Just Oil Prices! UN Warns: Shipping Disruptions May Push Up Fertilizer and Food Prices
①Multiple vessel attacks indicate that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively in a state of closure, a situation that has shocked the global oil market; ②A United Nations report warns that rising energy, fertilizer, and transportation costs, along with increased shipping and insurance fees, could drive up food costs, intensify cost-of-living pressures, and severely impact the poorest countries.
Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk
Following energy metals, agricultural products are quietly taking the lead in a new round of commodity market trends.
Agricultural products are now driving the upward trend in commodities following the rally in energy and metals. Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat, pointed out that as volatility in the U.S. stock market intensifies, capital is shifting toward agricultural commodities, which have already shown technical breakout signals. Corn, wheat, and soybeans are expected to continue their upward trajectory through 2026. Supply-side risks are simultaneously exacerbating the situation: 33% of global fertilizer trade originates from the Gulf region, and geopolitical conflicts could impact sowing season costs across Asia and Europe.
Farmers Cutting Back on Fertilizer Purchases -- WSJ
CME Group Reports Record Annual ADV of 28.1 Million Contracts in 2025, Up 6% Year Over Year
Express News | The fertilizer utilization rate for the three major grain crops reached 43.3% in 2025.
2025 Commodity Review: Surging Gold and Silver, Advancing Copper and Lithium, Disappointed Crude Oil
The commodities market in 2025 exhibited a historic divergence. Precious metals spearheaded an epic bull market, with silver surging over 140% to mark its largest annual gain on record, while gold climbed more than 60%, recording its strongest performance since 1979. Copper prices surged over 40%, marking the largest annual increase since 2009, repeatedly hitting new all-time highs during the year. Driven by improved supply and demand dynamics, lithium carbonate gained over 50% for the year. In contrast, energy and agricultural products remained mired in a bear market, with crude oil plummeting more than 15% to register its steepest annual decline since 2020, and cocoa prices nearly halving.
The logic of commodities in 2026 will undergo a shift! UBS Group: The 'sentiment-driven speculation' will fade, and fundamentals will regain dominance.
Amid the subdued trading activity during the year-end holiday period, precious metals shone brightly, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical safe-haven demand, reaching new all-time highs. Meanwhile, the energy and agricultural commodities markets moved forward with volatility, pulled by fundamental factors and weather-related risks.
Express News | Central Rural Work Conference: Step up implementation of a new round of actions to increase food production capacity by 100 billion kg
Global Equities Roundup: Market Talk
Corn Futures Retreat With Biggest Intraday Losses in More Than a Month