CITIC Securities: Supply disruptions in copper mines re-emerge, with annual production forecasts officially entering a decline.

As Freeport once again postponed the resumption of its Indonesia project and comprehensively lowered its production guidance for 2026-27, global major copper mining enterprises’ production expectations for 2026 have officially entered a decline. Additionally, the potential impact of subsequent extreme weather may lead to an expansion of supply disruptions. CITIC Securities anticipates that the recent unexpected destocking in China, reflecting robust supply-demand logic, along with easing macroeconomic pressures, will drive copper prices to stabilize above USD 13,000 per ton in Q2 2026. Amid expectations of a supply-demand imbalance, copper prices are likely to test previous highs. CITIC Securities highlights the investment opportunity in the copper sector driven by the synergy of profit elasticity and valuation upside. Copper supply disruptions re-emerge, leading to a formal reduction in annual production forecasts.

CITIC Securities ResearchMay 12 10:49

Energy shortages are impacting Peru's mining industry, posing a substantial risk of contraction in the global marginal supply of copper and silver.

As one of the world's top three producers and exporters of copper and silver, Peru accounts for more than 10% of global copper and silver production. The sudden imposition of policies has created dual constraints on energy and electricity in mining and ore processing operations within the country, leading to a decline in the operational rates of major global copper and silver mining projects, with marginal supply facing substantial contraction risks. According to Gu Fengda, silver is the precious metal most directly impacted by the events in Peru. Silver production in the country is largely a byproduct of copper mining, meaning that energy shortages will simultaneously affect both copper and silver output. Currently, the silver market is already in a tight balance between supply and demand, compounded by low exchange inventories, so any disruptions on the supply side will be significantly magnified.

Global Market NewsMay 12 09:01

Market Snapshot | All three major indices declined, with the tech index down 0.7%; oil stocks bucked the trend, as PetroChina rose nearly 4%; storage-related stocks retreated, with Southern Twice Leveraged Hynix dropping over 5% and GigaDevice Semiconduct

The three major indices all declined, with the technology index falling by 0.7%; oil stocks bucked the trend, with PetroChina rising nearly 4%; memory stocks retreated, with the Southern Twice Leveraged Hynix dropping more than 5%, and Gigadevice declining over 4%.

Futu NewsMay 12 16:16

UBS Group continues to be bullish on gold, citing multiple supportive factors. Gold prices are still expected to hit new highs within the year.

Teves pointed out that the factors driving this rise in gold prices remain stable—primarily supported by expanding demand from private investors and central banks. Amid increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, gold is gradually becoming a core component of investment portfolios.

cls.cnMay 12 14:51

UBS Group: Gold prices are expected to reach new highs this year, with a pullback to USD 4,000 presenting a good buying opportunity.

UBS Investment Bank maintains a positive outlook on gold, expecting prices to reach new highs this year. Joni Teves, Precious Metals Strategist at UBS Investment Bank, believes that the likelihood of gold prices rising, potentially even exceeding the bank’s baseline forecast, continues to increase over the medium to long term. The core drivers behind the rise in gold prices remain unchanged, including sustained demand expansion from both private and official sectors, supporting the overall upward trend. Gold's role as a core allocation in investment portfolios is increasingly prominent. In an environment of high macroeconomic uncertainty, the trend towards diversifying assets into gold remains strongly supported. Short-term adjustments in gold prices present buying opportunities, according to the bank.

AASTOCKSMay 12 12:07

Hong Kong Stock Market Midday Review | Hang Seng Index rose 0.30% in the morning session, with copper resource stocks performing strongly.

Copper stocks performed strongly in the morning session. International copper prices have risen to historical highs, maintaining structural resilience amid geopolitical tensions.

Zhitong FinanceMay 12 12:00