Futu Morning Brief | Renewed Middle East conflict fuels inflation concerns; AI chip stocks slump, dragging down equities; Apple shares hit new highs amid retreat from computing power arms race; CPI and Waller in focus tonight

On July 13 local time, U.S. President Trump told the media at the White House that he still believes the United States and Iran could reach an agreement, saying, 'Iran wants to reach a deal and has re-engaged with the U.S.'

Futu News07:53

CPI Meets Waller’s Congressional Debut: A Critical Week Ahead for the Fed’s Next Move

The U.S. CPI for June is about to be released. Markets expect headline inflation to ease significantly, but core inflation—the metric the Federal Reserve truly focuses on—remains stubbornly high. Investors are actively positioning ahead of the Fed’s July 29 meeting. Some have warned not to count on a weak CPI report to dampen expectations for further rate hikes.

Golden10 Data8minutes ago

U.S. forces resume blockade against Iran; Trump warns of 'heavy strikes' tonight or tomorrow and imposes a 20% fee on Strait shipping.

Iranian media reported that Iran shot down a U.S. military drone over the Strait; explosions were heard from Larak Island, located in the Strait, and from Bandar Abbas in southern Iran. Trump stated that U.S. fees on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz are intended to offset necessary expenditures for maintaining regional security, and that the relevant procedures and deployments would commence immediately. The U.S. military will impose a naval blockade on Iran starting at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the 14th. It was reported that Trump has notified Congress of the renewed outbreak of hostilities with Iran. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) opposes levying tolls on straits used for international navigation. Iran’s Foreign Minister described the U.S.-proposed fee rate as “excessive.”

wallstreetcn46minutes ago

Nearly 50%! Markets see rising probability of a Fed rate hike this month.

Amid the dual shocks of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's hawkish remarks and a surge in oil prices, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in July have risen to nearly 50%. The yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries climbed to 4.28%, reaching a new high since February 2025. Waller explicitly warned that if this week’s inflation data again comes in hotter than expected, the FOMC will need to consider raising rates soon. The June CPI data released on Tuesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony will decisively influence the outcome of the FOMC meeting on July 29.

wallstreetcn08:00

Gold Trading Alert: Renewed Middle East conflict drives oil prices higher! Surging rate hike expectations trigger a nearly 3% plunge in gold prices; focus shifts to U.S. CPI data.

On Monday (July 13), spot gold prices fell sharply for the second consecutive trading day, closing at USD 4,000.80 per ounce—a decline of nearly 3%—and briefly touching an intraday low of USD 3,986.51, the weakest level since July 1. U.S. gold futures also declined in tandem, settling down 2.6% at USD 4,005.70. This marked a stark contrast to gold’s previous pattern of trading in a high-range consolidation, driven primarily by a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions—particularly the U.S. reinstatement of its maritime blockade on Iran—which directly ignited concerns across global energy markets and subsequently influenced monetary policy expectations. On Tuesday (July 14), Asian

FX678 Finance07:49

CPI to Set Direction Tonight! Waller Turns Hawkish, July Rate Hike Probability Surges to 50% Overnight

On the eve of the CPI release, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller issued a warning: if this week’s core inflation data remains persistently high, the FOMC will need to consider raising interest rates in the near term. He cautioned that the U.S. must not repeat the mistake of hiking rates too slowly during 2021–2022.

Golden10 Data07:44