Guosheng Securities: A strong El Niño event is approaching, with significantly divergent probabilities of impact on agricultural commodities.
Gelonghui, July 30 | A research report from Guosheng Securities noted that El Niño has been confirmed to have formed, with a very high probability of reaching strong to very strong intensity. On June 11, 2026, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially announced the formation of the El Niño event. According to the latest ENSO probability assessment released in July 2026, the occurrence of this El Niño episode is now highly certain. Furthermore, the probability of a very strong El Niño event during October–December 2026 exceeds 80%, indicating that the peak impact window of this El Niño-related climate disturbance will be concentrated in autumn and winter of 2026. The effects of El Niño on agricultural commodities exhibit significant divergence in likelihood. Based on data since 1981
The National Financial Regulatory Administration: Reasonably determine the internal preferential policies for inclusive agricultural loans and resolutely prevent and correct 'internecine' competitive behaviors.
The National Financial Regulatory Administration has issued the 'Notice on Supporting the Comprehensive Revitalization of Rural Areas through Financial Measures in 2026.'
Express News | Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Continue to implement subsidies for corn and soybean producers in Northeast China.
Express News | The CPC Central Committee and the State Council: Strengthen policy support and coordination in pricing, subsidies, and insurance, and improve the mechanism for safeguarding the income of grain-growing farmers.
National Bureau of Statistics: Agricultural economy in 2025 shows steady improvement.
Gelonghui January 19 | Wei Fenghua, Director of the Rural Socioeconomic Survey Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, published an article stating that in 2025, the overall level of producer prices for agricultural products nationwide decreased by 3.7% compared to the previous year. Specifically, the declines for the first to fourth quarters were 1.6%, 1.1%, 4.5%, and 3.8%, respectively, with the decline narrowing in the fourth quarter. By category, agricultural product prices fell by 2.1% compared to the previous year, prices of livestock and related products dropped by 7.5%, forestry product prices declined by 2.5%, and fishery product prices decreased by 1.2%. By specific variety, rice prices increased by 0.1% compared to the previous year, while wheat, corn, and soybean prices...
BC-Rice Futures
Express News | Henan: By 2027, the overall damage rate caused by major wheat pests and diseases will be controlled to within 5%.
Rice Remains Sticking Point as Japan, US Seek to Implement Deal
The European Union announced it would impose additional tariffs on Russian grain, aiming to effectively halt imports.
① The European Commission announced that it would increase import tariffs on grain from Russia and Belarus. This move aims to restrict Russia's revenue while preventing these grains from destabilizing the local European market; ② According to the official press release, the EU currently imposes zero or minimal tariffs on these products, but future tariffs will be raised to a level that effectively halts the import of these products.
Indonesia Starts Cloud Seeding for Rice Crop Before Dry Season
Warm Weather in Australia's Top Grain State Raises Crop Concerns
Persistent heat and drought threaten Australia's wheat production.
① The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has issued a warning that local farmers, as they prepare to begin planting the next season’s crops, are facing prolonged heat and drought during the summer, introducing further uncertainty to local crop yields; ② Western Australia is Australia’s largest grain-producing region, and Australia is a major wheat exporter.
Weather, market sentiment, growing regions, who dominated the agricultural products market in the second quarter?
Weekly overview of this week's price changes Over the past week, CBOT agricultural product prices have basically fluctuated in the range, but soybean oil prices have declined. The USDA report for April is in line with market expectations, with minimal volatility, as people now pay more attention to planting progress and weather effects. We are entering the so-called weather market, and long-term pricing for commodities will largely depend on weather forecasts and actual conditions in key growing regions. The importance of this stage has been amplified by the current tight balance between supply and demand for various crops, limiting the margin of error when weather adversely affects yield. This situation has exacerbated the price pair
Farmer Sentiment Improves as Interest Rate Expectations Shift