How does Wall Street view the August non-farm payrolls? Strong employment figures have not ended the suspense over a September rate hike; next week's CPI holds "decisive significance."
The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August was surprisingly strong, prompting the market to reassess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. However, Wall Street does not believe this resolves the policy uncertainty. According to analysts at multiple institutions, while the robust employment data has indeed strengthened the hand of the hawkish camp within the Fed, it is insufficient on its own to determine the outcome of the September monetary policy meeting. The CPI data scheduled for release next week remains the key factor likely to "set the direction." On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000. Additionally, job gains for the previous two months were revised upward by a combined 55,000, with July's figure being adjusted from a decrease of 23,000.
Non-farm payrolls surge! U.S. job growth in August added 162,000 positions, far exceeding expectations, sharply raising the probability of a September rate hike, with next week's CPI data set to be pivotal.
According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, significantly exceeding the Bloomberg survey median expectation of 55,000 and surpassing estimates from all analysts surveyed. Additionally, data for the previous two months were revised upward, with the July figure (-23,000) being adjusted to a positive value.
Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly surge, lifting the probability of a September rate hike to approximately 60%, triggering simultaneous repricing in U.S. equities and bonds.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August significantly exceeded expectations, further widening market分歧 over the Federal Reserve's policy direction in September.
Timeline for "largest IPO in history" changes; Anthropic reportedly to start roadshow as early as mid-October
Anthropic is expected to begin marketing its initial public offering (IPO) as early as mid-October, with the listing scheduled to be completed a few days before the U.S. midterm elections in November.
U.S. Stocks Overnight | August Non-Farm Payrolls Significantly Beat Expectations, Bolstering Bets on Fed Rate Hikes; Three Major Indices Decline; SanDisk (SNDK.US) Surges 11.9%
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 272.51 points, or 0.51%, to 53,413.60; the S&P 500 Index dropped 29.29 points, or 0.38%, to 7,718.42; and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 77.07 points, or 0.29%, to 26,506.99.
Top 20 by Trading Volume | Tesla drops 6%, reigniting the "event curse"; NVIDIA builds an AI business empire, boosting equity investments to hundreds of billions of dollars; Apple's foldable iPhone may face challenges in mass production
Micron, the most actively traded U.S. stock on Friday, closed up 6.10%. Micron Technology plans to significantly increase its monthly HBM production capacity to approximately 100,000 wafers by the end of this year, nearly doubling last year’s level, in an effort to narrow the capacity gap with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. The company is accelerating mass production of its 12-layer HBM4 products for NVIDIA’s “Vera Rubin” architecture, expecting these products to account for 50% of its capacity by year-end, aiming to improve upon its current modest 18% market share.
U.S. Stock Market Close | Non-farm payrolls weigh on indices; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rises 3% against the trend; AI trades become a safe haven for capital, with SanDisk surging 12%, Micron Technology up over 6%, and Bloom Energy up over 7%; Gold
The three major indices ended their two-day winning streak. The S&P 500 fell 0.38%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.51%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.37%, with none of its 30 component stocks declining. Marvell Technology, an optical communications stock, surged 7.05%, while Corning gained 5.67%. Memory chip maker SanDisk jumped 11.90%. WTI crude oil dipped to $88.72 per barrel during intraday trading, marking a decline of over 2.5% for the day, before recovering nearly all of its losses. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note rose by 3.4 basis points, reaching an intraday high of 4.416%, the highest level since January 2025.
Employment growth in the U.S. manufacturing and construction sectors has outpaced that of the services sector, primarily driven by AI infrastructure development.
Over the past six months, payroll employment in the U.S. goods-producing sector rose by 0.6%, marking the highest year-on-year growth since 2023 and outpacing the 0.4% increase in the services sector. In the past three months, the U.S. manufacturing sector added 43,000 jobs, representing its strongest quarterly performance since late 2022. Citi economists noted that the recent improvement in manufacturing and construction is closely linked to large-scale AI infrastructure development.
Trump downplayed the impact of war, describing the conflict with Iran as merely a "minor issue," and hinted at imminent strikes on Gaoshan.
Trump endorsed Vance’s statement on Thursday that the current situation should not be termed a “war,” asserting that military conflict between the U.S. and Iran is “not a major issue” for the United States, noting that the 18 U.S. military fatalities incurred fall far short of the casualties seen in the Vietnam and Afghanistan wars. He also stated that military action against Fordow could be taken “very soon.” Previously, he had repeatedly threatened to strike Iran’s underground nuclear facilities at Fordow.
S&P Global Ratings has rarely sounded the alarm on credit risks in AI infrastructure: as a $7 trillion capital expenditure black hole looms, the debt sustainability of tech giants is being called into question.
S&P Global Ratings has issued a systemic warning to AI cloud giants: capital expenditures by the six major cloud providers could exceed $7 trillion by 2030, yet none have disclosed quantified returns on AI investment. The report highlights that Amazon faces the risk of losing its AA rating, while a downgrade for Oracle would push it directly into junk status.
Bessent: Oil prices to fall to $40 after Iran conflict ends, with bond yields declining accordingly
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent predicts that the global oil market will face a severe oversupply once the conflict in Iran ends, potentially driving oil prices down to $40–$50 per barrel and leading to a concurrent decline in bond yields and inflation. He noted that the correlation between current oil prices and interest rates has reached a record high.
Trump ramps up pressure on the Federal Reserve: Cut interest rates or face severed trade ties with select countries
① On Friday (U.S. Eastern Time), Trump demanded that the Federal Reserve implement significant interest rate cuts, threatening otherwise to halt trade with countries maintaining a trade surplus with the United States; ② These remarks indicate that Trump is intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve. With two months remaining until the U.S. midterm elections, high inflation has emerged as one of the core issues.
Dow Jones Top Markets Headlines at 3 PM ET: U.S. Adds a Whopping 162,000 Jobs in a Bright Spot for the Economy | U.S. ...
Express News | Trump: (Regarding Iran) May soon strike Gaoshan; U.S. interest rates should be reduced to 1% or even 0.5%
Update: Equities Fall Intraday as Jobs Report Lifts Rate Hike Bets
Trump Pressures Warsh to Cut Interest Rates: High Rates Place U.S. at an “Unfair Disadvantage,” Otherwise Halt Trade with Deficit Countries
On Friday, Trump posted that the U.S. employment data for August were “very strong,” and once again called on the Federal Reserve to implement significant interest rate cuts, emphasizing that high interest rates have placed the United States at an “unfair disadvantage.” Data released on the same day showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. The robust employment performance has further reinforced market expectations for a rate hike in September. Earlier this week, Trump had already urged for rate cuts, describing discussions of rate hikes as “absurd.”
Here's How People Are Building Their Nest Eggs Using 'Rent and Invest' Strategies
"New Fed Communications": August employment data clears the way for a rate hike, while September's policy decision awaits inflation "tone-setting"
Nick Timiraos, the journalist known as the "new Fed communications channel," noted that the strong August nonfarm payrolls report removed a key obstacle to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, but did not directly constitute a rationale for raising rates. The resilience of the labor market has reduced the potential cost of policy tightening; whether rates will ultimately be raised still depends on the August inflation data to be released next week.
Warning signs emerge in US equities? Under the pressure of high interest rates, utility stocks—the "canary in the coal mine"—are the first to reverse course, with historical patterns suggesting broader market headwinds.
If historical data serves as a guide, the decline in the utilities sector may also signal broader pain for the stock market.
Express News | Trump: Employment data far exceeds expectations; the Federal Reserve "should cut interest rates"