Futu Morning Brief | The deadlock between the US and Iran persists, inflation concerns weigh on AI-related market performance, Goldman Sachs indicates potential increase in stock market volatility; countdown to Samsung strike begins with final labor-manag
The market is significantly underpricing the tail risk associated with Iran — the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater the repricing shock triggered by energy shortages will be; and the higher market tolerance threshold after a rebound also implies that once optimistic expectations are hit by a larger shock, the magnitude of repricing will be even more severe.
Fear vs. AI FOMO! Worried about missing out or a market crash? 'Lookback put options' emerge as a new hedging favorite amid the AI bubble.
Fears of a tech bubble have prompted investors to hedge using exotic options.
The 'New Bond King' Gundlach predicts that inflation will reach the '4% range,' and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts are unlikely.
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, stated outright that a Fed rate cut is "simply impossible" when the two-year U.S. Treasury yield is nearly 50 basis points higher than the federal funds rate. He warned that next month’s CPI reading is more likely to "exceed 4," while speculative fervor in the stock market is brewing risks.
Trump and Netanyahu discuss resuming military strikes against Iran, raising risks of joint US-Israeli airstrikes!
Israeli media confirmed that Trump held a phone conversation with Netanyahu, focusing on restarting military strikes against Iran. Israeli officials stated that if the U.S. takes action, a joint aerial strike by both nations is expected. Trump warned Iran that 'time is running out,' and without a viable solution, it would face even more severe retaliation.
Goldman Sachs Warns AI-fueled Market Rally Is Becoming 'One Big Trade'
Preview for the week | NVIDIA's earnings release is imminent! SpaceX may unveil its IPO prospectus as early as Wednesday; Samsung Electronics’ labor-management negotiations are set for Monday amid an impending strike; Google I/O conference will take place
Russian President Putin will pay a state visit to China; the US and Israel are reportedly expected to resume strikes on Iran as early as next week; China’s housing price data for 70 cities in April, April economic data, and the May LPR quote will be released.